UFC on ESPN 11 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Curtis Blaydes vs. Alexander Volkov

This one seems pretty clear cut. Volkov has the advantage standing, but it is not a massive advantage, and Blaydes has massive advantage in grappling over most of the HW division. Blaydes just has more ways of winning this. Volkov can only win by keeping it standing and fighting a very careful fight, whereas Blaydes can score a knockout standing but also grind out a wrestling decision.

But I doubt it will be a decision, Blaydes has devastating ground and pound when he gets on top, and considering how easy Volkov is to take down and how slow starter he is, I don't expect this one to go very long.

Blaydes via 1st round TKO. 

Co-Main Event: Josh Emmett vs. Shane Burgos

Well predicting fights with extremely powerful guys like Josh Emmett is always tricky. I do think Burgos is the craftier, faster fighter of the two, and has a solid chin, but Emmett can still always find that shot. With solid wrestling background, decent cardio and good chin, Emmett is always in a fight even if he is falling behind in points.

I still have it about 70/30 for Burgos. I expect him to make use of his 5.5 inch reach advantage and speed advantage to cruise to a decision victory. But he probably will have to catch a few shots to the chin in process and one of them might knock him out.

Shane Burgos via UD.

Raquel Pennington vs. Marion Reneau

At first I thought this is a bit strange match-up, seeing that Reneau is already 42 and Pennington was so underwhelming against Holm. On closer research though this is a close matchup with similar range girls who both are good boxers and want to stick to boxing, but both of whom got overwhelmed with clinch in their last fight - though to be fair to Reneau, she shattered Kunitskaya's nose in the 3rd round of their fight and only lost the fight cause she had lost the first two. 

So Reneau looked better in last fight, but was fighting worse opponent, and is the older girl. So at best she is an uncertain pick. I feel like it is 50/50 on the feet, but Pennington can snatch rounds with takedowns cause Reneau is very willing to be taken down. 

Pennington via UD.

Lyman Good vs. Belal Muhammad

Both of these guys are very good (pun not intended), but based on last display, Good probably has the speed, power and technical boxing on his side. Muhammad can win a standup war too, but he has to do it through volume and durability, and realistically he needs to mix in some clinch and takedowns to wear on Good. If you let Good pace himself, he will hurt Muhammad and keep it up for 3 rounds, but he can be drowned in volume.

The problem is Muhammad is very hittable and has been knocked out before. He has only lost to very competent guys, but Good has dangerous combination of power and speed. He isn't easy to takedown either. It could be a great back and forth fight, but honestly I feel like Good will catch Muhammad with some hard shots and finish him.

Belal has the fortitude and the style to drown Good with pace as well though, so it is very close fight on paper. It is unlikely Belal wins this at range, he will need to get in close and might get caught on the way in. 

Lyman Good via 1st round KO.

Roosevelt Roberts vs. Jim Miller

I haven't checked the odds yet, but I feel like Roberts as young, fast and somewhat flashy fighter would be made the favorite, but that Miller would be great pick as underdog as Roberts is fairly easy to clinch up, is not particularly heavy hitter, and Miller showed in his last fight that he still has some chin left.

Obviously if it stays at range Roberts can KO him, and would probably pick off a points victory, but if Weaver could grab hold of him consistently, crafty veteran like Miller for sure can do that, and is more likely to score takedowns, or just stall in the clinch to wear Roberts out. Miller is tremendous grappler and that is how I expect him to end this fight, though Roberts is good as well in that realm. 

Either way, Jim Miller via 3rd round submission. 

Clay Guida vs. Bobby Green

Guida's career of late has consisted of fighting more or less washed up veteran's and Green is one of those. The guy has only one win since start of 2015, but at least he has not been getting finished left and right.

Calling him washed-up is not either really correct, cause he actually looked sharp in his last fight, but somehow just coasted most of the fight to manage to lose a fight that was entirely winnable for him. He still looks like good level fighter though, and although he is unreliable guy as any to pick, Guida should be past the hill enough for him to outpoint him to a decision or even hurt him.

Guida can still crack hard and put a pace on people though, so you can't completely count him out. His ways of winning this fight are just volume of grappling or landing a big shot. 

Bobby Green via UD.

Brianna Van Buren vs. Tecia Torres

The two shortest fighters of the roster matching up in what should be a fun scrap. I see Van Buren winning this just by being the more aggressive, sharper striker, but it is dangerous to pick against a girl who has faced much harder competition and is really back against the wall after taking four losses in a row. 

So you would expect her to also be pursuing the win aggressively. Looking at the past though, Van Buren definitely has been the more aggressive fighter, Torres tends to be a little more tentative. So there is two ways this fight goes - either Van Buren keeps being the first to engage and Torres retreats except for the occasional takedown attempt, or they crash together, ending up clinching a lot. 

In those positions this is an extremely close fight. I just feel like because of her activity and aggression, Van Buren is gonna end up in dominant positions slightly more and accentuating every exchange by landing last. I don't see Torres pushing such a high pace that Van Buren would gas out or something like that. It's also worth noting that Van Buren cracks much harder, with couple of knockouts in her record, whereas Torres has never won via knockout.

If it becomes a grappling match it is more open, but Van Buren looked fine against good BJJ fighter last time around, so I am trusting on her here.

Brianna Van Buren via UD.

Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Oskar Piechota

Well, someone will snap their three fight losing streak tonight. Piechota is very, very easy to hit and he took a really bad knockout last time around against Punahele Soriano. The kind of damage that changes career trajectories. Has 6 months or so been enough for him to fully recover from it?

Barriault's UFC career has been underwhelming so far with him losing all three of his UFC fights by decision. He has not been finished though nor even taken too bad damage though, so this is a chance for him to prove he is good enough to remain in the UFC. Despite all of his decisions of late, Barriault came to UFC with lot of KOs so he obviously hits hard.

Unless Piechota can make this into a grapplefest, he is in for a tough night. I am not saying he is completely outmatched on the feet, but you have to question his durability. It seems like the "winning until he isn't" kind of fight again.

Marc-Andre Barriault via 2nd round KO.

Gillian Robertson vs. Cortney Casey

Probably the hardest fight on the card to call. Cortney did not look great against Borella, but pulled off the armbar, but here probably she would be better off keeping it on the feet as Robertson is a limited striker but capable grappler. I don't know, these women's fights are always extremely hard to predict (or conversely, extremely easy to predict cause there isn't so much KO threat). This is one of those where I don't know if Robertson is good enough of an offensive wrestler to just consistently take Casey down, top control her and stay out of trouble of any sub attempts. 

But hey, I would say as a big underdog Robertson would be worth a punt considering how often Casey loses close decisions.

She is not underdog though, so I will go for Casey via UD.

Frank Camacho vs. Justin Jaynes

From the little tape there is, Jaynes seems a pretty rounded fighter but primarily a grinder. I don't see him grinding out Camacho, but he might win enough rounds via grappling. Still, with short notice and all, it is likely that Frank finishes this fast - but his chin has also been cracked a few times and Jaynes can hit hard enough to test that as well.

So I dunno, I guess I have it 60/40 in the first and then 80/20 if it goes beyond that, primarily cause it is short notice. I gotta go with Camacho here.

Frank Camacho via 1st round KO.

Roxanne Modafferi vs. Lauren Murphy

It's like most Roxanne's fights, with Murphy clearly the better fighter on the feet, though not as clearly as some of Roxanne's recent opponents. Roxanne's method of victory is to clinch and grapple to a decision, she is unlikely to finish this. Murphy definitely has the power to KO her, but it's pretty low percentage that she manages to deliver the killshot. 

I do think that her getting another gimme decision is unlikely too.

Roxanne Modafferi via UD.

Austin Hubbard vs. Max Rohskopf

Honestly Hubbard has given a great account of himself thus far despite being 1-2 after his first three UFC fights. He lost against two elite of the elite grapplers and made it to decision in all of his fights. So he is a tough out for an inexperienced newcomer in Max Rohskopf. Rohskopf has submitted everyone he has faced, but he has not fought anyone of note, with his latest win coming against 6-6 regional guy. I think he is in for a rude awakening here, cause if Mark Madsen or Davi Ramos could not finish Hubbard, I think it's extremely unlikely Rohskopf does it (unless he is much better than the opposition he has faced so far).

Still, you have to admit Rohskopf has looked great, so the potential is there that the hype is real so to speak. Definitely if Rohskopf comes in there and finishes Hubbard, it will be really impressive result.

Austin Hubbard via UD.