Jakro's MMA Musings

Lately I have been doing a bit lazy previews, so ending up losing again on 260 is no wonder, but only one bet loss in straight picks isn't that bad. Lot of guys ended up getting killed on yesterday's card though. Main Card The main event was pretty clear on paper, and we really weren't surprised by anything we saw. Perhaps Miocic was a bit more timid than everyone expected, but that's what you would expect against someone so much smaller than you. I dunno, I feel like I would have clinched more, but even short elbows from Francis probably fuck you up pretty good, so wouldn't have made much difference for the outcome. Stipe always needed to endure the first couple of rounds, but he really failed to even make Francis do much in the early going, and Francis fought with a lot better pacing. With the way things were going, even if Stipe survived, Francis probably would have had enough gas tank to bank three rounds. In the end though Francis was always gonna hit Stipe har...

Main Event: Stipe Miocic vs. Francis Ngannou I guess it all comes down to whether Miocic can still take multiple Ngannou shots without dying. I think if they only ever had fights against each other in the primes of their career, Miocic would have 5 fight series either 3-2 or 4-1, but cause there is already career of damage behind him, one has to wonder if Miocic can pull off the same thing again. Obviously they are not exactly same fighters as last time around, but same truths are still present. Miocic is better wrestler and overall the better fighter, but Ngannou just is a physical specimen. Miocic is just a little bit older and chinnier with all the damage sustained in DC fights, Ngannou probably bit better conditioned and bit more skillful with another couple of years of training.  So I don't know. I still kinda feel Miocic should be the favorite, after all it's not that hard to pin someone down to the fence in the Apex, but on the other hand I really don't feel confiden...

 That was a weird night of fights. Obviously some good fights, but some odd ones as well. Main Card By the time main event rolled around, there had been some strange fights on already, but Kevin Holland's performance was the one that was definitely the weirdest thing of the whole night. It seemed like he had the tools to beat Brunson, but whereas before talking has been part of his fighting, it never really took precedence over fighting. This time it seemed it was more about talking than winning the fight.  It wasn't so much that Brunson taking him down surprised anyone, just the fact he had absolutely no urgency to get up. It's not like he was completely unable to do so, but instead of scrambling like crazy he went for body triangle and let the rounds burn away on his back. Obviously I am a bit bitter that I got my pick wrong, but I don't feel I was that wrong - he did have Brunson hurt and gassed - it's just that he did not perform like he usually does. I dunno, p...

I talked last week about needing to work harder on my predictions... well, I ended up kinda throwing these previews together in the last minute again, so results might be so-so. Main Event: Derek Brunson vs. Kevin Holland That last Brunson fight was a painful learning experience for me. It seems like everyone and their grandma was picking Brunson at the great underdog odds, and I was one of the dummies to get caught up with the hype train about Edmen. I dunno, I still think Edmen will come out good, and to be fair I had not actually watched the Stewart fight where he gassed. Also Brunson was getting knocked out a lot, but it seems to me he has improved his defence since. This is similar fight to that last fight. Kevin Holland is a young fighter coming into this with a lot of hype after getting five wins in a year. Difference is, he has not been just obliterating people fast like Edmen was, he has actually been going long in some of his fights and just been looking very solid all around...

Main Card  As usual, I had a horrible main card. I did not get a single pick right. Obviously the Edwards fight was a push after horrible eyepoke ended the fight prematurely. Co-main... well sometimes Cirkunov looks great, sometimes gets folded by first shot he eats. He is not someone you can reliably bet on... just one of those things. Not much to say about Ige v Tucker, Ige finished with first punch. Kind of a random thing, Ige is good but never seemed that powerful and Tucker didn't seem that chinny, but when you hit the sweet spot while you are still fresh anyone can KO anyone. Jonathan Martinez had great first round against Davey Grant, even dropped the guy, but when Grant landed as clean on him on the second round, Martinez was out. Power kinda bailed Grant out, that being said he had good 2nd round even before the KO. Matheus Nicolau and Manel Kape had extremely close fight. Most people seemed to have it for Kape, but I did not get lucky with split decisions tonight. I was l...

Main Event: Belal Muhammad vs. Leon Edwards Ever since Belal debuted in the UFC I have been remembering the name and now he finally gets his chance in the spotlight, headlining against Edwards who has spent forever on the sidelines. Polar opposites in that regard, Belal has been very active lately, Edwards on the other hand last fought in 2019. I get it that Edwards is very highly touted, but none of his wins are really that impressive. Beating up a faded RDA and Cowboy, both guys since back in lightweight, as a big welterweight is not that impressive. Luque is the biggest name for me he has beaten, but at 2017 Luque wasn't the same guy he is these days.  Either way, Edwards hasn't lost in a long time and has looked pretty dominant against everyone he has faced since losing to Usman. I think he has Belal covered in every range here, and only way Belal wins it is either Edwards gasses out or if he just picks off close rounds via volume.  Prediction: Leon Edwards Confidence in w...

UFC 259 was wild in many ways and there has been lot of talk since the event. For me it was an excellent event, though still not free of mistakes.  Main Card Main Event went pretty much as predicted, as a very calculated, tactical kickboxing match. The numbers were very close for first three rounds, but obviously as the much bigger man Blachowicz shots had much more impact. In the end Jan sealed the championship rounds with takedowns and absolutely glued Izzy on the mat, showing why weight classes exist in this sport - Jan just was too heavy for Adesanya to do anything. To me it seemed that the much more than the fight itself, the biased commentary of Rogan and DC generated comments. I'm gonna go on a little tangent here, cause when the hell am I ever going to get to talk about this... Is it Rogan who is washed out, or did we all grow out of liking him? I really liked Rogan when I was new in the sport, so it made me wonder is the fact that he is no longer my favorite commentator to...

Absolutely stacked event today, and unlike last week, almost no fights got cancelled so it was a long session to get all the fights previewed. Main Event: Jan Blachowicz vs. Israel Adesanya Legendary Polish power vs. surgery like precision, eh? Like a lot of the fights on this card, it's kind of a tricky fight to predict. It's really hard to ever pick against Israel, but he is giving up probably about 30 pounds of size here... Then again he probably was giving up that much against Costa, and we know how one-sided beating that was.  That fight was in the bigger cage though, and Costa never really showed up for that fight. Jan is gonna be much more durable guy. Much has been made of Jan's power, but probably for a 205er he isn't overall remarkably power - at least so you would think when you look at his overall record with only 8 KOs from 27 victories. That said he did obliterate Reyes and has 3 KOs in his last 4. So perhaps he is just putting it together lately so that t...