Jakro's MMA Musings

I'm still here trying to comprehend what just happened. What a rollercoaster, both for my betting but in terms of just results. Main Card Glover did it. I didn't believe the old man's chin would hold up, but thanks to how the night panned out, I was chasing hard and heavily losing so I went for my pre-fight prop and really loaded up on that Glover sub - and it paid off.  Glover got the takedown early in the first and didn't even need to get his chin checked. It was clear Jan had no answer on the ground, and in the second when they exchanged more Glover avoided taking anything too clean on the chin and managed to pull it to the ground again. I don't know what was up with Jan capitulating so fast, he was probably more hurt from those stand-up exchanges than we even realized. We theorized it on Twitter some year or so ago, but it still seemed wishful thinking. Now it is real. Glover Texeira the light heavyweight world champion in 2021. He pulled off the unlikely run. I...

 What I have learned over the last few weeks is that my ML picks are still generally good, I just get too much fancy with props. So it's back to basics time here, gonna be picking my prop spots very carefully this weekend. Main Event: Jan Blachowicz vs. Glover Texeira When you compare solid boxing and grappling with forward moving style, you get a fighter that's gonna win most of the time. However, when you add a more weathered chin to that equation, it becomes closer to a 50-50. On top of it, it's not like Jan isn't powerful. The Polish Power might be overstated, but fact is Glover has gotten hurt in pretty much all of his recent fights. So yea... He is probably gonna get hurt here as well.  I want to believe in Glover Texeira the Light Heavyweight champion in 2021. It is possible, he is good enough and has the tools to make it happen. However, I don't think it is the probable thing to happen and odds reflect that. Hard to say there's any value on the Polish GS...

Honestly solid event, good pacing cause it was jam-packed with fights, just hope the prelim-pacing would have lasted until the end.  Main Card My big exposure was aptly in the main event, with me over-estimating Vettori but under-estimating how durable both of the guys are. There was violence just as expected, five rounds of war with about 300 strikes landed both sides, but neither guy ever went down, Vettori wasn't even dropped by a headkick that seemed to land flush. While I over-estimated how clearly Vettori would beat Costa, Costa backers also didn't want to give credit to Vettori being better than they expected. In the end both guys showed up looking like elite fighters, with Costa digging deep to dominate round five after having seemed gassed since round two. In the end it was Vettori getting more tired trying to put a pace on him.  So all my big exposure missed as Vettori won a close decision where best Costa could have hoped was a draw thanks to point deduction for eye...

Main Event: Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori I really see two scenarios here - the old, pre-Izzy beating Costa shows up, fights aggro and walks Vettori down for couple of rounds, scores KO 10-20 % of the time before fading in later rounds and getting finished late or UD'd. Or Costa shows up with no confidence and limp dicks his way into a 50-45 UD loss. It works to Costa's favor that he does not need to cut so much weight, but if he is heavier than usual, whatever is gained from no cutting is lost with simply the fact that he isn't in as good of a shape as he used to be. This fight will tell us a lot if there will ever be betting value on Costa again, but you won't have me picking Costa here. Vettori is too tough and too well-rounded, too solid to get KOd here at a high clip.  Another thing that leans against Costa here is ring rust. He has not been here since his awful showing against Izzy that was a year ago. Not the worst gap to be fair, but still a bit long especially...

Main Event: Aspen Ladd vs. Norma Dumont Usually I bet bigger on main event just out of principle, just for the sense of occasion, but this is a fight between two very flawed women, essentially just glorified low-level women's MMA fight, only reason both of these fighters are this high up the card is their physical talents. So yea, Ladd probably just GnP's through Dumont, who sometimes makes me feel like she is legit fighter, sometimes makes me feel she is really over-rated. I don't know, and most importantly I don't care. So I won't hit this fight hard. I think 25 minutes is a long time for Dumont to survive with Ladd if she indeed gets exposed, so ITD is probably better once again than moneyline. Prediction: Aspen Ladd ITD / FDGTD Confidence in winner: 2 Co-Main Event: Andrei Arlovski vs. Carlos Felipe Surely Arlovski isn't this far gone? Sure he gets laid out by big punchers, but Sherman is better than Felipe and Arlovski handled him. Felipe isn't big one-...

Well I got annihilated again, but like lately I totally deserved it for trusting Dern so heavily and researching the fights so poorly. Really I underbet both of my good bets and way overbet my worst bet. Main Card I should be experienced enough in this to not go heavy in on these unrealiable Brazilian grappling specialists. The story is always the same, can look brilliant when they get it to the ground, but lack wrestling to do it consistently, kinda wooden strikers and limited gas tank. On top of all those rather typical issues Dern also has the problem of simply not being aggressive enough and having that spirit to really get after it consistently even when she is getting beat up. Think of Kron Gracie vs. Cub Swanson when things weren't going his way, he never got discouraged the way Dern did.  All in all I see Dern getting brutal beatdowns intermixed with runs of easy submissions. Rodriguez was the right bet for the main event, and to compound my error I went really way way too ...

Main Event: Marina Rodriguez vs. MacKenzie Dern About as clear of a binary match-up as they come, either Dern gets early sub or gets outpointed to oblivion. Dern can snap something up any time the fight goes to the ground and although her stand-up is still relatively wooden, at least she has been improving it.  After Ribas sort of exposed her in 2019, Dern has been putting in very solid performances, with only Jandiroba surviving to a decision against her. Rodriguez has been controlled on the ground by Esparza and even went to a draw against Calvillo, so there is definitely a good chance of grappling domination here. Dern doesn't even need to score takedowns with regularity, arguable all she needs is one if she gets it early enough in the round.  Think we hammer Dern here all night long. Prediction: MacKenzie Dern & Dern ITD & Dern Sub Confidence in winner: 3 Co-Main Event: Randy Brown vs. Jared Gooden Gooden is a powerful guy, if he can get his foundations even better...

Solid night for my bets, back-to-back winning nights, but lot of winnings left on the table as well with some poor picks. Main Card Two wild, violent Brazilians met in the main event, so fast finish had to happen, especially with other one of them being known for having a glass jaw. Well, to everyone's surprise there wasn't much wild stuff going on in the fight, instead both respected each other's power and fought in a very calculated manner. Walker was let down by his corner that made him think he had won, when in fact it was very close fight that Santos edged with some veteran savvy. The co-main event was cut short with a hard clash of heads that saw Holland, dizzy after the impact getting subbed. It was correctly ruled as no contest, the only mistake there was that Dan Miragliotta didn't step in right away as the clash happened.  Another fight that was supposed to be violent was Oliveira vs. Price, but somehow Price fight goes to a decision again despite Price pourin...

Returned to winning ways with last weekend's event, but the hard part is to keep winning. Another 13-fight event this weekend, obviously pales in comparison to UFC 266 but pretty solid for a fight night. Main Event: Thiago Santos vs. Johnny Walker Johnny Walker is the ultimate glass cannon, whereas it's kinda hard to get a beat on where Santos is these days. At 37, he probably has seen his best days and probably no longer has the same hunger he had when he beat the GOAT for the title. Unfortunately judges didn't get that one right, and his title reign wouldn't have been very long considering both Texeira and Rakic subsequently defeated him.  All in all Santos still has the durability edge, or maybe just is less likely to get caught clean with his chin in the air like Walker seems to get caught in every fight. I mean Corey Fucking Anderson put Walker's lights out so you have to think seasoned, powerful striker like Santos will find the killshot here early, but Walker...