Jakro's MMA Musings

So yesterday's event was something I want to quickly forget, hell it makes me feel like I shouldn't even be writing these posts cause I write is worth jack shit since I obviously get more of them wrong than right. Anyway that wouldn't be the right move since I get out of this swamp by working harder, not less. Anyway let's get to going through the fights, shouldn't take too long since there was only 9 of them this time. Main Card Main event was a snoozer. Gane was so comfortable to just poke Rozenstruik from distance, and Rozenstruik didn't have any urgency to go for the killshot and thus lost all rounds without hardly landing any damage on Gane. Great win for Gane, but big blow for my bets. Makes me feel like Rozenstruik is never getting KO there enough of the time so guess my pre-fight prediction of always needing to big guys some chance wasn't exactly right. I don't know. At least the co-main went right, but it wasn't an exciting fight with Ankala...

I'm glad I do these previews late cause we lost a ton of fights for this event. Main Event: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Cyril Gane The common thread between significant favorites Gane and Ankalaev in this weekend's main events is that both are well-known, highly rated prospects. Unproven prospects are usually great betting opportunities, cause people doubt their skills and doubt the hype is real, but in this case, both Gane and Ankalaev are thought to be the real deal. That opinion is of course well warranted; both are likely to be far better fighters than their opponents. Gane is undefeated, and Ankalaev only lost 5 seconds in his career and thus has 1 loss in his record. However, both are fighting dangerous opponents, in heavy weight classes, with just 4 ounce gloves on. What I am trying to come at is do you really think 250 pound Jairzinho only gets a knockout a tiny percentage of the time here? Regardless of the skill, you have to give a reasonable chance for such huge, power...

Ten event losing streak is finally over, as I hit 75 % correct pick rate and end 3 bets up. Honestly a good event without many mistakes, nice to have one of those for a change. Main Card It's ironic that I thought that Blaydes wrestlefucking Lewis would somehow reduce the chance of him getting KOd. It was quite the opposite. Lewis looked very limited when Blaydes had patient approach, keeping it technical range kickboxing and using his reach. It was a poorly set-up takedown that gave Lewis the opportunity to send Blaydes into the shadowrealm. It was a bad KO. Blaydes as a top-level fighter might be a goner. He was out cold with a single shot, then ate two hard and accurate shots right to the chin while already unconscious. It's hard to see him ever coming back from that. If he wasn't chinny before, now he will be.  Anyway I said Lewis always has at least that 20 % chance. It was a percentage I came up on the spot, but based on that, I should have bet on him and the odds wou...

 Lot of low confidence picks tonight, let's see if I get lucky to finally end this losing streak. Main Event: Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis Pretty clear fight on paper. Lewis has 20 % chance against anyone because of his crazy power, and bit more with fighters more willing to stand with him, but with Blaydes he has only short time to find that KO shot cause Blaydes will be looking to get on top of him as soon as possible. We saw against DC Lewis doesn't really have much defence against any real wrestlers, even gassed Latifi managed to stay on top of Lewis a lot.  So it would seem pretty no-brainer here to predict a late Blaydes KO here via ground and pound. Only doubt about that is merely if Lewis can land that killshot. Blaydes has been called chinny but I think that is wrong assessment, only guy who has KOd him has been Ngannou and Ngannou is a freak of nature. You could say Lewis is similar freak of nature though, but as said, he is unlikely to have much chances to land ...

That's it, 10 losing events in a row. Just like the tale has been lately, it was so close to a successful event, but just couple of little mistakes and it goes from a win to a loss. You have to be so on point in this game to be successful. Main Card Yay, I got the main event right for once! And I won a big bet, woo! Unfortunately by the time main event rolled around, I was chasing so much that I filled up on some prop bets on Usman late finish, and unfortunately it obviously didn't work out. Burns started strong but soon found Usman's jab to be too much to handle. It was all over in the 3rd round, too quickly for my props, so me trying to chase only ended up adding to my loss. In the co-main event Maycee Barber showed she is indeed all athleticism. Grasso was the much better fighter, not flinching to the bizarre shadowboxing show that Barber was putting on, and catching her a lot with shots coming in. Furthermore she actually dominated the clinch with the stronger woman.  B...

Will it be 10 in a row or will I finally snap the losing streak? Will see, not an easy event to squeeze a profit out of for sure. Main Event: Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns Honestly there is not much to analyze to this. Usman is up there as the best, most complete fighter. His fights are also the most predictable ones - he pins you on the fence and beats you up. I could make fun of it as it is not the most damaging or exciting style, but frankly unless you have his level of wrestling, you are not gonna stop that. In other facets of the game Usman is also very good and has never been completely outgunned anywhere. With Burns being relatively easy to clinch up and the fight taking place in the Apex with not much space to move around, this fight ought to be a clinchfest and Kamaru's dominance.  Obviously Burns has some opportunities on paper - he is very powerful, and powerful guys always have that puncher's chance, and he is very renowned grappler, so there is some degree of subm...

Nine losing events in a row. I don't think I am clueless, I actually think I have learned a lot about the sport, it is just fine details that are going wrong. Let's see what went wrong this time. Main Card Beware of old men in a world where men die young. Well, not so much today. Both Frankie and Overeem got flattened, turning a winning event into a losing one for me. As for Overeem, it was an awful performance but in hindsight you could have seen him having much more of a struggle with Volkov. It's just wrong pick, though Overeem did land a few solid shots early on in the first. He really failed to impose much clinch or grappling on Volkov though, and eventually Volkov just ran away with it. As for Frankie, he could have been in his prime and it would have not made a difference, if you eat that knee you're always going out. Another absolutely masterful performance by Sandhagen, I gotta stop picking against him (of course the one time I did pick him he lost). Sterling i...

2020 was rough, 2021 has started even rougher. Let's see if I can start to turn things around in this fight night. Admittedly, I watched even less tape than usual and am going more with gut feel. Sometimes it's good not to overanalyze these fights. Main Event: Alistair Overeem vs. Alexander Volkov Volkov looked huge in the weigh-ins, and probably has striking advantage here. Overeem has become more of a clincher of late, and against Volkov's reach, that probably would be a smart strategy. Volkov has been susceptible to getting taken down and then unable to get back up, but then again Blaydes is one of the best wrestler's of the division.  Still I do think Overeem has a decent chance here to get rounds with takedowns or even score a KO via ground and pound. Volkov putting on size is a bit of an unknown factor here, does that mean he has crazy power, or just that he fatigues faster?  Overeem's chin has been holding up decently well lately despite fighting some big pun...