Jakro's MMA Musings

Main Card I don't know what shrooms were people on Twitter claiming it was close fight or that Tate was winning on, but either way that fight was not really even competitive. All the hard and clean shots were landed by Vieira - only thing that was going for Tate was some explosions at the end of the round that got the recency bias on her side, and the fact that she was sort of the one moving forward, though even so she wasn't pressing the action much either. Only clueless people scored anything more than one round for Tate. It was a fight between fighter who was champ in a different, less developed era of the sport and even then got to be the champion as a brawler, and is now been away for a few years, and fighter who sort of could be good if she did something, but just allows fights to drift past her so basically anyone who has some skill and engages will beat her. So not a high-level match, to be honest I think Tate had kind of shades of BJ Penn in his last match against Fran...

Main Event: Ketlen Vieira vs. Miesha Tate Don't know, don't care. Tate looked great last time around, but I don't know how much weight you can put on beating someone who was a career journeyman in her 40s. Vieira is step-up from that, although she isn't top level fighter either, she is at least closer to her prime and should be able to compete. General heuristic for me is that the game has evolved from 2015 days and that you can't come back to compete at elite level in this sport after being out, so let's go by that and pick Vieira. Prediction: Ketlen Vieira Confidence in winner: 1 Co-Main Event: Michael Chiesa vs. Sean Brady Brady is pretty good, but been unspectacular so far, just kinda tightly edging most of his opponents. Chiesa is far more battle-tested of the two and has the grappling edge here. It's gonna be a close fight, but if people are gonna be favoring Brady so heavily here, Chiesa ought to be quite easy pick. I don't really see Chiesa getti...

Main Card Holloway did it again. Yair didn't let him off easy though, trying his best to disable Max's lead leg and popping him clean to the chin enough times to take off half the featherweight roster, but Max did not even flinch. Perhaps he couldn't just pressure Yair into submission as convincingly as he has done before, but either way Yair, as great of a shape as he was in, wilted to some extent and couldn't keep up.  Somehow the fight went the distance despite both guys landing a lot of damage and also having some near miss submission attemps. In the end, I need to stop betting ITD on main events, the guys who make it this far just are too tough to go away. The co-main was over pretty fast, with Rothwell's chin looking like what you'd expect 40-year-old UFC veteran's chin to be. De Lima cracked him hard and he was pretty much out on his feet, that being said Herb managed to stop the fight simultaneously too early and too late. I guess I give a pass for h...

Main Event: Max Holloway vs. Yair Rodriguez Holloway and Volkanovski are in a class of their own in this division, but I feel like odds definitely sell Yair short here. Sure, most of the time if this goes full five rounds, Holloway overwhelms him with volume, but are we forgetting Yair is a good striker as well and usually struggles more with guys who can also wrestle? Max isn't gonna wrestle. Max is gonna stand toe-to-toe with Yair and gonna be there to be countered. Also Yair has not fought in two years, which on one hand might mean some ring rust, but on the other and with him still being only 29 means he has probably made big strides to his game. I feel like Yair is live to win often enough to warrant a poke at these odds. His biggest win condition is obviously getting Max badly hurt early to finish him, which is easier said than done considering Max's iron chin, but I don't think winning a decision is impossible either if he can just disable Max to some extent with the...

You can't say that UFC 268 did not deliver. We had absolute wars between guys too stubborn to die and too proud to even block them, fat guys doing flawless somersaults and of course as in MMA usually, some sad outcomes too. Main Card No regrets on betting Colby on the main event, it pretty much went as the pre-fight predictions suggested. Both guys had improved, and although Usman was better, Colby was good enough to keep it close, and probably only guy in the division to be able to do so. I see Colby beocming champ in couple of years as Usman has already peaked and will be past his prime soon. For now though, he continues to dominate even if Colby managed to have him a bit hurt at times. Nonetheless clearly deserved win. In the co-main event Rose and Zhang has very competitive fight with close rounds. Neither really dominated but Rose edged the fight also deservedly on the scorecards.  Frankie Edgar is cooked but at least did not get starched immediately by Chito Vera. It was alwa...

Main Event: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington Colby and Marty are best fighters in the division by some distance. I do think there is also some day distance between Kamaru and Colby, but Colby is the only guy who has seemed to be able to put something of a competitive fight with Kamaru. If the fight plays out anywhere near like their first fight played out, it will likely end up being close decision with Usman being the more skilled and heavy-handed fighter but losing rounds to a busier opponent. Just like the first time, Usman being so heavily-favored depends on him getting the finish decent percentage of the time, otherwise we are looking at scoring in close rounds where subjective view of judges matter much more than who is better fighter.  To put it clear, I expect Usman to be clearly the better fighter, but it will be sufficiently close decision that Colby as a significant underdog is a no-brainer play. Both guys have improved since their first meeting, but I do think Colby had...