Jakro's MMA Musings

Not the most exciting card by any means. About average event for me in terms of results, tiny bit of winnings thanks to main event and co-main event hitting. Main Card Cyril Gane shut out Volkov according to some scorecards. I don't think the decision should have been quite that wide, but it was clear Gane took over during the five rounds of the fight. He doesn't have spectacular wins over anyone, but Gane doesn't make mistakes and is very skilled, tough guy to beat. Volkov couldn't really take full advantage of his reach, but largely shut out any grappling exchanges.  The co-main was largely a forgettable fight even if Boser got the finish there. Boser got the first round with steady volume and OSP doing fuck all, and in the second when OSP started to grapple he had some success but promptly got KOd after that. OSP just isn't very good, all-in all.  Valiev and Barcelos fought to a close decision. Barcelos had Valiev badly hurt in the second, but somehow only one ju...

Main Event: Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov First real test for Gane, and I think everyone is salivating at the prospect of two technical heavyweights fighting a high-level kickboxing match... but it won't be like that, will it? If Gane has been smart, he has been drilling offensive wrestling like a motherfucker this camp. Volkov has skill and range, but not so great takedown defence, so it seems plain obvious to just top control him into a victory.  Gane already has showed lot of willingness to play grappling in the past and if he really focused on that during this camp, he should be able to seal tight rounds here with takedowns. Still expect the fight to be largely close, but it still kinda feels like Gane has everything covered here.  Volkov has the best chance of anyone to outstrike him, but even if he does, Gane will just pursue the takedowns or clinch - but might not even need to if he is too good for Volkov anyway. There is a chance of that happening too, but it would b...

Another decent night of violence last time around, and I notched up a fourth winning event in last five.  Main Card My initial gut feeling for the main event had been KZ, as I didn't rate Ige as really a top level fighter, whereas KZ has always been a legit contender in the long-term. However seeing people picking Ige I did fall into the same group think, figuring he is past his prime already. Maybe he is, but so slightly that he still easily gets pasts someone like Ige. It was a dominant and comfortable display from Korean Zombie, never any doubt of him winning, and in hindsight a fairly obvious pick. In the co-main event I was expecting a finish, but Spivak just isn't that aggressive or that much of a power puncher, also he played it safe with Oleynik, and you can understand why, the guy just is so dangerous when he gets hold of you. Solid stuff from Spivak, as for Oleynik it's pretty much retirement time, though I guess if you throw him against some total bottom tier hea...

Main Event: Korean Zombie vs. Dan Ige I dont know. Ige does basics well, is reasonably durable and has higher volume. Don't really see him as highest level contenter. KZ might be past his best by now as well, but he does still have dangerous boxing and power advantage. Still feel like more often than not we go to a close decision here and Ige is better at winning those. Prediction: Dan Ige Confidence in winner: 1 Co-Main Event: Aleksey Oleynik vs. Sergey Spivak Ehh, Oleynik is weird guy to bet on cause he can hit you hard and obviously its quicksand being grappled by the guy, but realistically he only has 4 min of gas tank at best and his chin might be completely gone too. Spivak probably finishes this but it could be cagey too because of Oleynik's grappling threat. Prediction: Sergey Spivak Confidence in winner: 3 Marlon Vera vs. Davey Grant I still don't rate Grant, but gotta admit, the guy is dangerous. Vera on the other hand is durable and has high volume, so you expect...

Am I starting to figure out MMA? Surely not, must have been just some great variance as I got the best result I have ever gotten from a single event (as well as best single bet). Let's dissect the fights a bit as usual. Main Card I honestly don't understand why so many people thought Vettori has a chance here. The fight looked very similar to the first fight with Izzy outclassing Vettori on the feet and using his range and movement to make it very hard for Vettori to close the distance. Blachowicz could do it as a bigger guy since Izzy had to go to him, but as beefy as Vettori is, he simply didn't have Jan's strength and range.  Vettori had limited grappling success but largely got blown apart on the feet. Makes me kinda wish I went bigger on Izzy - as big of a favorite he was, it seemed like he should have been bigger. So I guess we see him KO Rob again next time? Whittaker finally getting the title shot he probably deserves and that his fans have been calling for... w...

Main Event: Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori Pardon me if I don't wanna rewatch the turgid affair that was Blachowicz vs. Adesanya, but I have been bit surprised to see everyone and their grandmother picking Vettori here? I mean I suppose it's a closer fight than odds would suggest but Vettori is no Blachowicz when it comes to wrestling. Izzy struggled with Jan's size in the previous match both in terms of striking and especially in terms of grappling. That doesn't all the sudden mean that Izzy is easy to takedown and hold there.  Vettori is easily 20 pounds smaller than Jan is and probably considerably weaker in terms of strength. It's still probable he scores some takedowns here though. Can he make the striking even enough that it makes a difference? Vettori has improved from their first fight where he got outstruck, but he was pretty soundly beaten in that one. It wasn't as close as people make it out to be.  I think Vettori will make the fight closer this ...

My winning streak just narrowly broke, but I've made poor picks in last three events... don't deserve to be winning. Let's talk about the event. Main Card The main event was just as poor of a fight as we expected, with Sakai doing fuck all and Jairzinho staring at him for 4:55 before finishing him right at the end. Not much to say about that, I never rated Sakai but picked him since Jairzinho is so KO or bust, but in this one he showed he ain't good at all. The co-main was as someone said, the fight that could have been scripted to be the perfect Walt Harris fight. Starts strong, has the opponent hurt, absolutely empties the gas tank only to be taken down and finished in the end. Now to be fair Harris could do cardio until the cows come home and it wouldn't give him a big gas tank because of his powerful build, but he could at least be smart and not barrage it all out in one go. Oh well, that one went as predicted, Tybura's impressive win streak continues. Roman...

Main Event: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Augusto Sakai I don't know. I lost all my trust on Jairzinho after his pedestrian performance against Gane, and actually that's how he has largely looked during his UFC career, just relying on big moments to win fights that he has been losing. The only decision he has won was early on in his career and even that was a split decision. Sakai obviously got finished in his last fight, but that was the first KO loss of his career. All in all Sakai has been unspectacular but durable, so I think he pulls away to a decision victory here by slightly edging out rounds. Also if I am wrong, at least I am likely gonna be wrong via spectacular KO. Prediction: Augusto Sakai Confidence in winner: 2 Co-Main Event: Walt Harris vs. Marcin Tybura I thought Tybura is shot when he got KO'd by Sakai, but since then the guy has ran 4 wins straight against very respectable opposition. Harris is someone you can also grind out, basically his whole win condition i...