Jakro's MMA Musings

So last week I took the the heaviest loss of the whole two years of doing this... surely I was gonna do better this time? Nope, somehow I managed to further improve from that loss record. Difference this time is that I would largely do the same bets again if I had the chance.  Main Card My whole night's success was pretty much predicated on Barboza winning the main event and... well, I think Barboza did struggle a little more than I expected, but I still didn't call the fight wrong really - he kept stalking Giga and keeping him on the fence. He was having hard time finding Giga though so one has to give credit to Giga's skills to manage space. As much as Giga won the first round, he had still taken damage, and second one was very close and he was showing first signs of weathering. It really looked like it was matter of time when Barboza was gonna take over. Unfortunately the chance that Giga just nukes him was always gonna be there so I only hit my inside the distance and u...

Who da fook is these guys? The main event is great but this is a brutal card and not in a good way.  Main Event: Edson Barboza vs. Giga Chikadze Barboza is still in the tail end of his prime, he might get nuked here cause Chikadze is lethal when he lands, but he is very low volume and just generally unspectacular, I think Barboza is defensively too solid to get hit with anything clean, whereas he will put a pace on Giga and just keep blasting him with shots.  My strong gut feeling here is that Giga is in for a rude awakening. Barboza throws a lot and he throws absolute damage with every shot, I really don't see this fight going the distance... So GTD is a nailed on bet. Prediction: Edson Barboza & Edson Barboza ITD & FDGTD & Under 4.5 Rounds Confidence in winner: 5 Co-Main Event: Bryan Battle vs. Gilbert Urbina I didn't watch TUF, but I read Urbina via sub early is good. Small punt on that, aside that don't touch this. Prediction: Gilbert Urbina via Submission C...

I'm not gonna be here lamenting about how bad my picks were and how much losses I took, let's focus on the fights, no one wants to read about me sulking. Main Card Jared Cannonier proved me wrong, but it wasn't that surprising in the end. I put Jared by decision in the end of my preview as a joke but perhaps on some level I knew that it actually isn't that unlikely outcome. He did hurt Kelvin couple of times, and kept landing the more impactful strikes through the fight. Kelvin didn't fully let the fight pass by him, but he certainly could have been more active. I don't know what Gastelum's corner was thinking when they thought they had it, Cannonier clearly deserving winner. In the co-main event Guida put in a respectable performance particularly for a guy of his age, but he never managed to put the kind of pressure and output on Madsen that would gas him out. The problem was that he was perhaps too respectful of Madsen's wrestling and clinch, I think h...

Main Event: Jared Cannonier vs. Kelvin Gastelum I really liked Cannonier. He might not be the most skilled guy, but he has his fundamentals right, and for a big, powerful guy that goes a long way. Obviously fighting the most skilled fighters in the division he has fallen just short many times lately, but the potential for fun fights is always there, and although he got outclassed by former champ Whittaker last time around, he still wasn't completely blown out. It's also remarkable that Whittaker took so many leg kicks without being affected much.  Gastelum is kind of the opposite, very high level skills as shown by the close fight against Adesanya, but lacks the physical tools to really excel at middleweight. He should have Cannonier covered in striking, grappling and in volume. Still his durability, that some suspect is waning, will be put to test as he will have to step to range with Cannonier and get blasted with leg kicks and power punches. His best bet, especially early on...

Up and down card for me, did some generally okay reads, but some fights were completely off, and betsizing was generally really off. Still I guess I won a little bit, like a bet up. Main Card My read that Gane v Lewis could be cagey turned out to be largely wrong, and it was trusting the other read that the skill disparity is too much for Lewis that allowed me to turn a heavy loss into a small win in the main event. Lewis hardly got anything off, showing exactly how big of a difference being much better in skill can do no matter how much power one guy has. Hard to say if Gane can deal with Ngannou, but we haven't seen the guy really absorb a hard shot yet in his career. In the co-main I got the skill assessment for the fighters largely right, but what I got wrong was Munhoz fighting more of a cautious fight than he usually does. Guess it was Aldo just shutting his game down by countering everything but either way he didn't pressure face first like he usually does, which allowed...

 Main Event: Ciryl Gane vs. Derrick Lewis Hate to be boring and useless but I have nothing new to add to this fight. Even casual can do a correct analysis on this fight. Gane is better on every range, but that's the case for every Lewis fight and he still KOs people with one shot regardless.  So I laid chalk against Lewis on Blaydes, expecting Blaydes fully to dominate by laying on top of Lewis for five rounds. I mean if a guy as tall as barrel like Latifi can lay on top of Lewis for couple of rounds, huge guy and a better wrestler like Blaydes can do it easy, right?  Well I got half of it right. Blaydes did dominate pretty much as long as the fight lasted, but he didn't really pursue grappling much, instead he was putting on a striking clinic until he went for a bad shot and had his career ended. That's the main difference here though - both Gane and Blaydes are (were in Blaydes' case) elite in terms of skills for HW, but Gane's specialty is striking, so he does no...

I did like shit on this card. Oh well, it's been a while since I took a hefty loss, but there was plenty of value here, should have done better. Main Card My original prediction was Sean Strickland beating Uriah Hall, and that indeed happened in a dominant fashion. However cause I changed the bet last minuted to Strickland ITD to chase a profit, I ended up getting burnt. Strickland was close to finishing couple of times, but was ultimately content to cruise to a dominant decision in the end rather than risking getting caught with something. Smart on him, but kinda burns me.  Uriah just never got going, kinda weak performance even by his standards. You would have expected him to have much more good moments early on, but yeah, complete shutout by Strickland.  Cheyanne Buys made quick work of Gloria de Paula in the co-main. So quick indeed that I had been at the fridge and missed the fight, only saw the replay of the finish. Can't say I anticipated that fight a lot anyway so what...