Jakro's MMA Musings

Another UFC Fight Night wrapped up. Despite the fact that I had to rush my predictions at the last minute, I still got a very good rate right, proving sometimes analyzing too much is not useful. Anyway, we will wrap up the numbers in the end, let's talk about the fights. Main Card I gotta be honest here - I fell asleep during the main event. I still saw enough to get the gist of it. Cautious kickboxing match with clinch here and here. I have no idea if the decision was legit or not, but it did seem like a very close fight where Jacare had better of it early on. Speaking of legit decisions, the Craig deserved at least a draw against Shogun and got it. Can't really argue with it, first round clear 10-8, then couple of 10-9s to Shogun. Craig put a beating on Shogun in the first, whereas Shogun just controlled him in the latter rounds. Honestly it is time for Shogun to hang them up, although Craig has been improving steadily, he isn't the kind of guy Shogun should have any...

Every week I tell myself I will get the previews done early on the week, and every week I end up late rushing them in. Anyway, let's get to it. Main Event: Jan Blachowicz vs. Jacare Souza This is the main event? Blach... Does not make me feel anything. Blachowicz wins, and he is not really any closer to title shot. Jacare wins and... guess he is somewhat relevant light heavyweight but he probably has hit his ceiling already. It's not like Jacare is completely shot, just a bit faded. He has good power and he needs it to translate to light heavyweight, otherwise he is not gonna have a good time. Blachowicz is well-rounded, just kinda lacks anything that really pops out and the starching of Rockhold tells us really little. He is a big boy though and better range-fighter than Jacare, so I expect that he will just keep popping Jacare from the outside and ran away with a decision. At least I would match rather see that than see Jacare flatlined. Blachowicz by UD. Co-Main Eve...

Entertaining event from Russia, some surprises, but in the main card fights went largely as expected. Main Card The only surprise about the main event was that Zabit wanted to stand in the boxing range and largely had Kattar outmatched even there. Zabit landed the better and more shots, only thing Kattar had advantage in the end was that his shots had more power behind them. Predictably, Zabit faded quite a bit and just spent 3rd round on his bike. I have no reason to believe he beats either Max or Volkanovski with a gas tank like this, but he would absolutely piece them up for couple of rounds and it would be a delight to see regardless. In the co-main event, Volkov predictably outpointed Hardy to a convincing decision. Volkov looked just as good as was expected, his chin held up the few times Hardy touched it, and obviously Hardy could not keep up with the volume. Despite this, Hardy positively surprised. He was injured during the fight, and although he could not keep up with...

I wrote these kinda last minute, so they are short and rushed. I forgot that the event is in Moscow so it will start earlier than usual. Main Event: Zabit Magomedsharipov vs. Calvin Kattar Well we all know Zabit has been very hyped up while he has been in UFC, and with good reason, for he is so good in every aspect of MMA and blends them beautifully. The only hole really in his game is him fading a bit towards the ends of his matches, which I suppose does give Kattar a decent chance. That being said he probably needs a finish towards the end of the fight, since Zabit will probably snatch the first couple of rounds. Kattar has great stand-up, perhaps even good enough to have slight advantage on the feet, but if there is any advantage it is the slightest possible, and even then it will be hard for him to keep the fight at the kind of range that he could have prolonged success. He does hit hard though, and Zabit is human, so he is live dog here, but all things considered, you have ...

We got a great night of fights in New York. Lot of finishes, lot of absolute wars. I expected to get quite a lot of picks right but ended up with exactly half right, since I picked wrong underdogs most of the time. Main Card I predicted Street Jesus to win a close decision and he got the first three rounds like I expected. The question was how much could he compromise Nate in the process. The doctor ended up stepping in, but from what I saw, even slowing down Masvidal would have kept winning the rounds and the decision would not have changed. I guess I would love a rematch, but I also feel like from fight analysis standpoint it would be pointless, since it would be more of the same and I don't think the outcome would change, since Masvidal does not gas that much. Nate might have picked up the last two rounds on volume but think it would have been very unlikely he finds a finish.  I thought the Co-Main was a decent match, but it just goes to show how entertaining the car...

Main Event: Jorge Masvidal vs. Nate Diaz So the famed BMF belt. Honestly this one is pretty tough to call. Jorge is the more powerful guy, both are great boxers, Jorge better at range but Nate has improved that aspect of his game as well. Obviously if the fight goes long, it will be to Nate's advantage, but at the same time, it is not like Jorge has bad conditioning either. He might slow down but not completely fade. Both will be aggressive and willing to stand and bang. Nate gets hit a lot though. That is a bit of a problem and that is really something that makes me kinda lean towards Jorge. Jorge survived also with Maia on the ground so I am pretty sure he can handle Diaz too, so submission loss for him is not likely.  I guess it is a question of how much damage can Masvidal do in those first two rounds where he is the freshest. Can he do enough to compromise Nate severely, since we have to presume that he won't be KOing him? If he can damage his leg, bloody him et...