Jakro's MMA Musings

Man, UFC 257 delivered big time. Massive finishes in both main events and pretty solid action all through the card.  Main Card  Conor was supposed to knock Dustin out easily. Okay, Dustin has more durability, but how many shots can a guy take? He definitely took some shots and was hurt multiple times in that first round... but he persevered and sure enough it took Conor only 6 minutes to completely fade. I feel frustrated I didn't give Dustin more of a chance in the match-up. Sure, everyone knew if he could extend the fight, that he could win. What I missed was something I even thought about - it was southpaw vs. southpaw so the leg kick was more available. I didn't even write it up though even though it was in my mind, let alone allow Dustin a more chance in my mind to beat up Conor's leg. It was always gonna eventually happen, Conor getting hacked with leg kicks. Wide stance with boxing style heavy lead leg was just begging to be kicked to smithereens. I guess in the end ...

Back to regular programming for the third event of the year, no guesses on how long the fights go, I figure that has much larger variance. Main Event: Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier Yea I would love to see Diamond win here, but Conor has been rightly made a massive favorite here. Dustin will give Conor exactly the fight Conor wants, and Conor hits hard and is the better striker. Dustin is too hittable and although his durability has vastly improved since their first meeting, there is only so much the skull can take.  If we presume that we will see the best version of Conor ever here, then Conor is a no-brainer pick. Very high percentage of the time he will score a fast KO or at least get Dustin out of there before second round ends. As for rest of the time, very high percentage of the time he hurts Dustin so bad early he is compromised for remainder of the fight. So even five round decision is not an easy pick to make for Dustin. Sure, Conor gasses, but he doesn't gas so bad if ...

I like these 14 fight cards for the pacing. For previewing? Not so much. Either way let's go through the event quickly before I start working on UFC 257 previews.  Main Card  In the main event, Neil Magny showed complete inability to adjust his fighting style depending on his opponent. He had the physical tools to beat Chiesa for sure, but kept falling into his old habits of clinching and trying to grapple instead of just going for pressure and striking from the outside while defending takedowns. Magny did successfully defend some takedowns, but instead of disengaging and making Chiesa work on the outside, he kept staying in the clinch and trying for some takedowns as well. Chiesa was the much better fighter in transitions and as such, ended up top controlling most of the rounds and getting dominant result. As far as a grappling match goes, it wasn't too bad, but Magny's performance certainly was disappointing. In the co-main... Well I actually didn't really see it beca...

I think the long event is full of decent opportunities for over/under bets, so I am gonna continue the experiment for one more event just to see if last time's loss was just bad luck or if I just am shitty at predicting if the fight goes the distance or not. Main Event: Michael Chiesa vs. Neil Magny I find this difficult fight to predict because Magny has not really fought anyone like Chiesa who would pursue the takedown against him. Magny has notched three UDs in a row, but all were against opponents who wanted to strike with him. With those Magny would just put the pressure on, clinch up and wear them out.  Against Chiesa, not sure if Magny will do that, but either way he will put a volume and if the fight goes long, Magny is likely to pull ahead. Obviously Chiesa is very competent grappler so if he can get it down early, he can definitely win with a submission here.  Magny needs to make Chiesa work hard for the takedowns and control the distance on the feet. If he does that...

Fights seem always so obvious in hindsight, but often aren't it beforehand. This was an event to drive home that point for the most part. My over/under experiment was largely a failure and I have to think if I even continue it in the midweek event. Either way, let's quickly go through the fights as usual. Main Card Max Holloway put in a performance for the ages. Hard to think of another as impressive performance like that where the opponent was still trying his best to the end but got dominated bell to bell for five rounds. It was a miracle that the fight went full five rounds. Perhaps it shouldn't have, for Kattar took a career's worth of damage and there is genuine worry that he will never be the same again after this. Still, Max was the star of the show - Kattar is not a bad fighter, but Max was just on a completely different level. High volume, powerful strikes, accuracy, technical skill... it was all there and Kattar had no answer. Kattar could barely stand at the ...

So UFC is back on, I had many weeks to do my previews, yet here I am doing all of them in the last minute. As promised last year, this year I also start predicting over/unders. Main Event: Max Holloway vs. Calvin Kattar Hard fight to predict cause both are so high level. Arguably Max could have gotten the nod in the rematch against Alex, either way both are essentially champ level fighters. Is Kattar at that level? Well he for sure isn't far, as he has power and great boxing.  What he lacks is volume, and Max has bounds of that. Still, it's not like Kattar is exactly low volume either, so it is definitely very possible that Kattar can snatch a decision here by just having some good rounds. Either way obviously if this goes the distance you have to favor Holloway, cause he goes hard all five rounds, whereas Kattar tends to start slow and start taking the fight over later. Hard to do against Max. Obviously Kattar is more likely to get a stoppage here, but you wouldn't bet on ...