Jakro's MMA Musings

Tonight's event wraps up a tough year for me in terms of picks, and it wraps it up with a sizeable loss. Not to mention it's successive losing events now. Gotta be honest, it's the kind of stuff that makes me feel like quitting, but then what? I still would be training fighting and watching fights, and the idea of not being a gambling degenerate while at it feels... alien. So will see about that, anyway let's try to figure out what went so wrong again. Main Card The Main Event was one of those fights that seem so obvious in hindsight... and I mean it kinda was? I am even confused why I picked Neal... I mean I suppose I figured Neal has bit better technical ability and power than Luque had, and Thompson is that much older now? Still, banking on the off chance of Thompson's chin not being there any more is obviously never gonna be a winning play at even money.  So I don't know. I guess that's been the theme, just not seeing the big picture clearly. This was ju...

 I was looking at the event earlier on the week thinking I have to start writing the previews well in advance, a big card ahead... but Covid did it's thing and the card trimmed down into normal size. Last chance to end the year on a winning note. The few week break after this will probably do good for me, sometimes I feel like there's fights coming out of my eyes and ears with all the previews I have written over the course of the year. Main Event: Stephen Thompson vs. Geoff Neal Everyone sleeps on Wonderboy. He is getting up there in age, but still completely outslicked Vicente Luque, one of the most dangerous guys in the division, in his last outing. His recent record looks a little ugly due to a fluke KO loss to Pettis and getting fucked in a decision against Till, but make no mistake, Wonderboy is elite. So is Neal though, and Neal will be helped here by the small cage which will limit Wonderboy's movement a little. Another thing working into his favor is the fact that ...

UFC 256 was full of finishes and ended with fight of the year contender that anti-climatically ended in a draw. Let's recap the event and see what I predicted right and wrong. Main Card The question was whether Moreno could take Figueiredo deep and whether he could impose his grappling. Well, yes and yes... kinda. It seemed that particularly after Fig started to tire, he was very easy to take down, but Moreno chose to use that option only when he was getting tagged particularly heavy rather than constantly pursuing it. Moreno took Figueiredo's best shot and even some combinations of strikes, but probably was close to getting finished a few times too.  The otherwise great fight was marred by Figueiredo's dirty tactics, raking at Moreno's eyes, eyepokes, even some nutshots. Either way you can't really fault the judges for allowing him to retain his title, as even though Fig only has gas for like 2.5 rounds, he still puts a ton of damage on you in that time and still h...

Main Event: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno Can Moreno make it deep? Can he force grappling? I think Figueiredo has better cardio than given credit for, however, he is a power guy, so past third round Moreno will get the rounds just on volume. Well out of the flyweight prospects in the UFC right now, perhaps Moreno is the toughest challenge for Fig. He moves very well, is hard to pin down on the ground, has fight volume and unorthodox style. Most importantly, he has never been KOd, which is most likely way of Figueiredo would win this.  So paths to victory are pretty clear, either Fig knocks Moreno out, or Moreno tires him out for a decision win. The hard part here is that Moreno has not fought any KO threat like Fig before. My gut and what I wrote are in disagreement again. I feel like Fig gets the KO here, but looking at the tape it looks like Moreno is very hard to hit clean and could fight the perfect style fight to wear out Figureido. Either way there is no value in bet...

The latest UFC card was... decent. We had a bad KO, couple of wars, no fights that were too bad. So even with some last minute cancellations, everything turned out to be entertaining. Main Card Jack Hermansson and Marvin Vettori went to a war, that was mostly a stand-up affair where both exchanged steadily all through the five rounds. The fight being almost solely stand-up worked in Vettori's favor, although Hermansson had a little surge to win round 3, he still lost all the other rounds comfortable and got rocked early on. Vettori seemed to be fading in that middle round, but toughed it out despite it being clear he had taken some damage in the fight. Either way Vettori is pretty much the top contender in the division and seems to be the only one who could challenge Adesanya. They already fought to a close decision of course, and both have improved since then, so perhaps the time for a 5-round rematch is soon. Certainly would appeal to me much more than Adesanya rematching with Wh...

Main Event: Jack Hermansson vs. Marvin Vettori Just like the co-main, I don't really feel confident either way. I like Vettori, he is one of my favorite fighters to watch, and he can definitely put the striking on Hermansson, but Hermansson is long and has very good grappling, which makes me think he will get this to the ground early. That being said, Vettori is very tough to finish so Hermansson would do well to even get the rounds via top control.  Grappling experts have generally posed some problems for Vettori. Although he has never been finished, Akhmedov took him to a draw and Antonio Carlos Jr. got a decision against him. Hermansson is in a way more offensively potent grappler than those two, being very good at top control and dangerous with submissions as well, as we saw against Gastelum.  As much as you might value Vettori's grappling, I feel like Hermansson has subbed or dominated on the ground better grapplers than Vettori. Besides, Vettori is a last minute replacem...