UFC on ESPN 12 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Dustin Poirier vs. Dan Hooker

I could research this all day without any clarity on who will win. Two elite fighters of the division that are more so than anything excellent strikers. Hooker has the better movement and distance control of the two, and 3 inches of reach over Poirier, but he is also hittable as was evident in the Barboza fight.

Poirier has fought the elite of the division in his latest fights and looked great with the exception of Nurmy fight, where he looked kinda sluggish (but still managed to ring Khabib's bell a few times) so I am leaning on him a little bit to be able to better to what Felder failed to do, which is step forward, pressure and land heavy shots as Hooker slides backwards and snipes at him.

Both of these guys hit hard, but have also shown tremendous durability, so I think finish is not the likeliest outcome. I mean anything can happen if either lands the right shot, but it is more likely to be accumulation of damage in the later rounds that ends the fight. For that, I trust more on Poirier, particularly since he probably took less damage against Khabib than Hooker took against Felder.

Dustin Poirier via 4th round TKO.

Co-Main Event: Mike Perry vs. Mickey Gall

Man I have a lot to write about this fight. On a quick look, Perry is the much more battle-tested guy who has fought at a higher level much longer, whereas Gall is only 8 fights into his pro career, and got TKO'd by 2019 Diego Sanchez. So it should be clear cut, easy victory for Perry, right?

That is where the uncertainties start. First of all, is his durability that he so much relies on finally abandoning him after all the damage he took in his last fights against Luque and Neal? I am worried about that for him, but at the very least he has had a good amount of time off since the Neal fight, quarantine and all has worked to his favor, and Gall isn't exactly the heaviest puncher in the division.

Second uncertainty is the kind of fighter Gall is. Cerrone fight showed that Perry is susceptible to submissions and Gall really is predominantly a grappler. Definitely this gives Gall the way to win to just duck under the Perry pressure to take him down or to force clinch fight.

Thirdly and most importantly... has Perry just gone off the deep end? Yea, I am talking about the failed marriage, very public nonsense with the girl and all of that stuff that's evident on the social media. I don't wanna read too much into that stuff, but guess we finally find out if women really weaken legs.

Yet I somehow still believe Perry is just so crazy guy that he would just pull it off despite all of this against Gall. For all his faults, Perry has only lost to elite guys. So even with all the uncertainties, I just don't see Gall pulling this off, it is just a too big of a step-up in competition. If Perry can avoid just falling into the clinch nonstop, he will outstrike Gall on the feet and either KO him or get a close decision. Gall needs to get this to the ground and win via grappling.

Mike Perry via 2nd round KO.

Maurice Greene vs. Gian Villante
Another fight that looks kinda clear but is full of uncertainty. Greene has all the physical advantages here, few inches of reach, probably faster too and more powerful, but Villante should also be able to perform better without deflating himself, so probably has some more durability and power in his shots.

Thing is, he was slow even at 205 and now weighed in at 255, so I expect a very lumbering showing from him, when with Greene you really need to close the distance and clinch up with him. Greene should be able to control the distance and pop off shots. Of course, guys this size can't keep that up for 3 rounds, so if Villante manages to stick around he can make it close. Also if Villante does get hold of Greene, he is easy to take down.

So I am picking Greene with a lot of reservations here, he is the kind of guy you really can't rely on too much. Still, Greene via 2nd round TKO.

Brendan Allen vs. Kyle Daukaus
These are two very similar middleweights with reasonably rounded games, decent standup and crafty submissions. It is clear that we probably won't see much of kickboxing in this one, but if we were to see some, I lean on Allen having the power advantage. He seems just the overall stronger fighter and as both are excellent grapplers, it looks unlikely Daukaus can snatch up another one of his submissions.

So it becomes more of a position battle and in that, I believe Allen has the edge. He simply has the stronger resume of fights and has more experience despite being younger.

Allen via UD.

Philipe Lins vs. Tanner Boser
Good matchup, two guys who like to throw hands and are both very competent. Boser's problem, as usual, is being a bit undersized for division and that will make it difficult for him to beat Lins who is both fast and powerful. Lins probably will try to keep the range and pop him with counter shots coming in, similarly to what Gane did. Still, Boser was competitive in that fight and I expect him being more than competitive in this one as well.

So expect that if neither crumbles either with hard shots that this will go into a tight decision similarly to Lins' last fight. The big questionmark really is the grappling and clinching, with neither of the fighters really relying much on it so far on their UFC careers.

Still I expect the bigger guy to have this.

Lins via UD.

Sean Woodson vs. Julian Erosa
I gotta be honest... I find these lanky, anorexic guys kinda retarded. Like I am all for same size guys fighting each other, but artificially getting advantage by having stupid reach and ridiculously skinny build... Well never mind about it, Woodson has ludicrous 78 inch reach and is 6'2 tall in the featherweight division. On top of that he is also pretty good. So he will be tough nut to crack in this division.

I don't think Erosa is the kind of skillset that will give him trouble, it will have to be the kind of fighters that put him under extended grappling attack and have heavy top control.

I guess it's not impossible for Erosa though, and he desperately needs a win, being on a three fight losing skid. Worst thing about the losing streak is that two of them were also KOs, which is a worrying sign for a fighter who is still only 30.

The fun aspect of this matchup of course is the fact that they are somewhat similar fighters. Both rangy for the division, prefer to strike, and fight with their hands down using head movement. The problem is that Woodson simply is better than Erosa in all of the above, and on top of it has better durability. Woodson does not have crazy power, but this seems like a fight where he could add to his KO total.

Woodson via 2nd round KO.

Luis Pena vs. Khama Worthy
Interesting fight. Worthy came into his UFC debut on short notice and KO'd Devonte Smith as a huge underdog. Obviously Worthy has good power, but he has also a lot of KO losses in his record from the earlier part of his career and his record is... alright, I suppose. Either way he has lost to many of UFC's peripheral talents and is already up there in age, being 33.

Pena definitely will not want to be hanging out exchanging powershots with Worthy, the path of least resistance will be to stay outside and snipe at him then clinch up and take him down when he comes for him. In that manner, it should be fairly winnable fight for Pena, he has good positional control in grappling. He is surprisingly hittable, so Pena might get caught with something, but in all likelihood he cruises to decision here.

Luis Pena via UD.

Takashi Sato vs. Jason Witt
This is a tough fight to predict cause Sato... well he just doesn't seem very good. I mean there is no shame really being dismantled by Belal Muhammad, the guy is one of the elite fighters of the division, but Sato really does not have anything else notable on his record. KOing an aged Ben Saunders doesn't tell you much about how good he is.

Witt is a regional level grinder, and for that, he is pretty good. I can easily seeing him box himself up to clinch and then take Sato down and go for submissions. The problem is the short notice of the fight. He might simply not have the stamina to go long in this fight. Sato has only been KOd once in his career so I don't think he will be easy to KO early either, so all in all Witt grabbing the surprise victory will not be very likely.

Takashi Sato via UD.

Kay Hansen vs. Jinh Yu Frey
You know what, I am writing these in one sitting and I am fading a bit, so... fuck this, I ain't gonna be sitting through 40 minutes of low-level female strawweight fights just to get a proper preview of some early prelim done. And yea, both of these girls last fights were decisions, one 5-round decision and other 3-round decision.

Frey was the Invicta champ whereas Hansen seems to be a prospect, I don't really know people from either of their records and neither looks great, but small promotion champ is still a champ, so Frey is the safer pick to not go wrong. But yeah, don't hold this preview as anything predictive cause I pretty much just didn't give a shit this time.

Frey via UD.

Jordan Griffin vs. Youssef Zalal
Griffin got the win last time out, and there is something to commend to gut it out for a come-from-behind win, but man he did not look great at all, getting for the most part outstruck and outgrappled by his opponent before snatching up the guillotine win. He still has problems with both his takedown defence as well striking defence, if his opponent had been smart he was well on his way to getting KOd.

Zalal moves really well and has sharp striking, so I would imagine he can comfortably dominate this on the feet, so Griffin will have to be pushing the pace, closing the distance and trying to make this more of a grappling fight. Even in grappling, I am not sure if Griffin can turn it to his favor though.

Zalal via 2nd round KO.