UFC on ESPN 14 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Robert Whittaker vs. Darren Till

Well my skill-assessment shows this clearly to be Whittaker's fight to lose, but although the gap seems quite large, I have no confidence in it. Till has still relatively little high-level experience and his losses came at a smaller weight class. Even if he looked solid against Gastelum, Gastelum was always gonna struggle with Till's size.

Only Bobby Knuckles will help us find out if Till is actually a contender in middleweight division. His skills are well-known, but I actually am bit uncertain of him as well. Those Romero fights were absolute wars, and then on top of that he got hurt in both rounds and finished by Adesanya. Has all of that already taken a toll on Whittaker? You can't say with any absolute certainty, but what little we saw against Adesanya suggests to me that the damage might be catching up to him.

At the same time, Adesanya is the highest level of striking there is, and he was catching Whittaker coming in repeatedly. It is not something you can draw too heavy conclusions from for that reason. Still, getting rocked multiple times in one fight is never a good sign.

Also Whittaker might be the more well-rounded and overall skilled fighter, but that does not matter if you aren't significantly better in key areas. Darren is still a very good stand-up fighter and can clinch adequately. Whittaker is a decent wrestler but good enough to consistently get rounds via wrestling? Not so sure. So it becomes a stand-up battle in which Till has a decent chance to actually even match Whittaker's ability.

So the questionmarks regarding Whittaker's durability combined with the fact that this will likely be largely a stand-up affair makes me think it's close to 50/50, or perhaps even a bit in Till's favor. Ultimately it can go either way and I will make my pick based on the odds.

Darren Till via 2nd round KO.

Co-Main Event: Shogun Rua vs. Minotauro Nogueira

What year is it? Anyway guess it comes down to who is more shot, and in that regard the answer is pretty clear - Minotauro is already 44 years old, he has aged further 14 months since getting badly KOd by Ryan Spann, and even his last win is now almost two years old. Not to mention even that win came against shot journeyman in Sam Alvey.

All in all it's a pretty pointless match-up. Rua is not the same beast either any more that he used to be, but he definitely is still a legit UFC level light heavyweight. He showed against Craig that he can still take a hard shot - even barrage of hard shots, and did not get overwhelmed by Craig's grappling either.

Still, this is a match between two big guys so anything might happen if they just connect something. Still, that Spann KO was a bad one and sadly Herb did not really get in there fast enough, for Nog took couple of extra shots that put him completely out. If Rua connects with anything solid, Nog is gonna be unconscious.

Shogun Rua via 1st round KO.

Alexander Gustafsson vs. Fabricio Werdum
So fat hasbeen Gustafsson vs. completely shot, past-it Werdum. Eh? Kinda pointless but I love fighting so let's see. Right from the bat I kinda lean on Gustafsson, cause he is still the younger fighter with less miles on him, and Werdum looked really terrible in his last fight, getting outworked even in striking by another aged fighter in Oleynik.

Of course, you can't pick Gustafsson with any confidence either since it is plainly obvious his heart is no longer fully in it, evident in the fact he was already supposed to be retired and has put on quite a bit of weight. It's not always a bad thing as we saw from DC, but with everything else it makes me think that the training intensity just has dropped for him.

Also it is a worry that he is bigger cause his movement was one of his strengths, and some of it might be gone with him being bigger. Either way it's not like he is completely over the hill, just not having that sharpness any more that is required to be championship level fighter. However, he is still a competent, dangerous fighter near his prime. Same cannot be said for Werdum. Gustafsson lost against Smith, but was competitive and even on top in the early going, and Smith is much faster and sharper striker that this Werdum is.

If Gus is anywhere near his normal level, Werdum will struggle to even get close to him and will just get beat-up. It might not even take that much to beat him up considering his age.

Gustafsson via 3rd round TKO.

Marina Rodriguez vs. Carla Esparza
I am not going to endure through that boring Esparza v Waterson fight again, but I do have it freshly enough in my mind to know Waterson arguably should have won that fight. Esparza can win this the same way, securing couple of takedowns to get couple of rounds, but Rodriguez is far less likely to fall short of volume to win rounds than Waterson was.

Rodriguez had some adversity against Calvillo, but for most of the fight dealt with Calvillo's grappling well enough, being able to get up when taken down and delivering nonstop damage on the feet. I don't think Esparza is as good as Calvillo is (in 2020 anyway, in 2017 of course she beat Calvillo), so Rodriguez should absolutely feast on Esparza on the feet. I don't see Esparza getting more than a round with her wrestling, but she might actually get finished this time around.

Marina Rodriguez via 3rd round TKO.

Paul Craig vs. Gadzhimurad Antigulov
Two kind of unreliable light heavyweights here. Antigulov hardly fights, and in last 3 years has total of 7 minutes of fight time, so it is hard to exactly say how good he is. He has taken back to back 1st round KO losses, which on quick glance seems like he is washing out, but at the same time at least those KO losses came against two high-level strikers.

Craig is not one, but he has been improving his striking and can definitely put your lights out. Stylistically this is actually interesting match-up, cause Craig is not supposed to be such a huge striking threat, but Antigulov is hittable and chinny. Antigulov also pursues wrestling and top control, which Craig probably is happy to concede, but Craig is also dangerous as a grappler.

Still, Antigulov should be fine in a grappling fight, it's taking hard shots that he seems unable to handle. So if this one goes to decision, Antigulov should be fine, probably winning rounds by top control provided he does not gas out. Now there's a BIG if. I feel like Antigulov would be a smart pick here, but I just can't get over the fact that he got repeatedly clocked to the chin in 40 second fight, and gassed out in 1st round before that. Even if he could be dominant against Craig by Craig giving him exactly the fight he wants, I just can't trust him with all of that.

Moreover, Craig's draw with Shogun was the first time in his career a fight has gone into a decision, and Antigulov as well only has one decision in his record. So somehow unexpectedly this turns into very likely fight to have a finish. Does not matter much in that context then that Antigulov probably wins if it goes to a decision.

So either Antigulov gets a fast sub, or Craig wears him out or KOs him. Craig likes to submit you even if he has you hurt, so...

Craig via 2nd round submission.

Alex Oliveira vs. Peter Sobotta
Sobotta has been away long after getting TKOd by Leon Edwards back in 2018. In hindsight that loss does not seem so bad, considering Edwards is now one of top contenders in the division, but at the same time he got pretty thoroughly dominated in that fight. Cowboy Oliveira on the other hand has been very active in last year or so, and although he is definitely past his peak, he still has enough chin and stamina left to be a tough out for anyone.

Sobotta is considered a dangerous grappler, but he is not a grinding wrestling, more like snappy sub hunter. He definitely can grab a submission here, but that is the only way I see him winning this fight, and Oliveira could have worse style match-ups than that.

Oliveira has had problems fading before, but when he gets to control the pace of the fight, he can keep up even in relatively high output. His chin is perhaps not good as it once was either, but Sobotta is not the biggest KO threat either. So I really see Cowboy keeping himself long and picking Sobotta off from the outside. If the fight goes long, I also think Cowboy might take Sobotta down despite the grappling threat, just to make sure he gets rounds via top control.

Either way, pretty sure Oliveira has this, ring rust is also a factor so it is unlikely Sobotta shows up vastly improved.

Oliveira via 2nd round TKO.

Khamzat Chimaev vs. Rhys McKee
Chimaev put together about as dominant performance as you can put in his UFC debut, but let's face it, that was against a technically limited, chubby brawler. Still, dominating any pro fighter that thoroughly shows that you are a very high level.

Rhys McKee is a young, promising looking striker with obvious power in his hands, but realistically this is a nightmare matchup. He is decent at getting back on the feet on the regional scene, but Chimaev is different level of top control and if guys with little wrestling can take him down, Chimaev is gonna lay out a beating on him just like he did couple of weeks ago.

Chimaev via 3rd round TKO.

Francisco Trinaldo vs. Jai Herbert
Trinaldo might be deep into his 40s, but he keeps fighting and he keeps winning against tough, high-level opponents. It might not be the most exciting style, but it gets the job done. This makes him a good test for another Cage Warriors prospect on this card, Jai Herbert. Herbert got KOd by Rhys McKee back in 2016, but has since been on a tear, notching up a 6 straight wins, last four of them KOs.

Based on the film he seems actually better fighter than McKee is. Is he good enough to beat Trinaldo is a whole different matter, but he should at least be able to make Trinaldo work for it more than Makdessi did.

Think this will be a pretty close fight, gonna have a look at the odds and decide, Trinaldo could be a great value if he is underdog.

Well of course the odds are 50/50... Well fuck it, Trinaldo via SD.

Jesse Ronson vs. Nicolas Dalby
This one is kinda hard to call. Ronson has been on the periphery of being UFC level fighter for a while, and now at 34 he finally gets his chance on the big show. He already has 10 losses on his record with 7 of them being decisions, so when fights go deep, he tends to lose them.

Dalby was able to beat Oliveira by taking him to deep waters with a war of attrition. He was second best largely in that fight but was able to outendure him, with a little help from the ref as well in that fight.

Still it's hard to feel confident for either guy in this fight. Anyway at least Dalby has had more UFC level experience and has never been finished, while Ronson tends to lose if he does not get the KO.

Ronson is worth a punt at those odds though. Ronson via 2nd round KO.

Tom Aspinall vs. Jake Collier
Not that much to go by here, Collier has not fought in over 3 years, and Aspinall obviously first time fighting at this level. I lean towards Aspinall cause at least on the regional scene he has seemed pretty good clincher/grappler coupled with some good power.

Tom Aspinall via 2nd round KO.

Mike Grundy vs. Movsar Evloev
Bit of a high-level fight hidden away deep into the prelims. Combined record of 24-1, both are high level wrestlers. Evloev in particular is a classic Russian takedown/top control fighter. Grundy could give him trouble here, but realistically, Grundy is probably step behind in every aspect of fighting.

Still for how good Evloev is, he did show some holes against Barzola, mostly the inability to take Barzola down and more importantly hold him there. It was largely an extremely close stand-up affair, which Evloev just about edged to remain unbeaten.

Grundy should on paper be better wrestler and grappler than Barzola is, so could Evloev actually get outwrestled here? It's possible, but I still lean towards Evloev getting another win.

Evloev via UD.

Tanner Boser vs. Raphael Pessoa
I have this impression that Pessoa is supposed to be more of a grappling based fighter, but all we really have seen from him so far has been striking and getting submitted by a kickboxer.

Cyril Gane is these two guys' only common opponent, and while Pessoa got submitted, Boser went three hard rounds with Gane and really only succumbed due to his physical disadvantages. Some of them are present here too as Pessoa is a very large man, but he does not have the kind of technical striking as Gane has. Either way he has power so he can definitely KO Boser.

Still, Boser has been finished only once in his career, is the more technical and faster fighter here with higher output... So he should have this. Kind of a close fight on paper though.

Boser via UD.

Bethe Correia vs. Pannie Kianzad
Who would have thought that after making Ronda Rousey's boxing look world class by getting KOd fast, Bethe would still be here almost five years later still holding her own while Rousey has been long gone and ridiculed. Obviously Bethe is not a great fighter, physically and technically somewhat limited, but tough and durable.

Her durability got her past Sijara Eubanks whom I rank very highly, whereas Kianzad... I don't think Kianzad is as good of a fighter as Eubanks is - but one thing she has going for her over Sarj is that she does not fade as badly. So Kianzad could just snipe her way to victory in this one for sure. On the other hand, Correia might just keep walking in taking shots until slowly the pressure starts to tell and she just gets the 2nd and 3rd round.

I don't know, Bethe is 37 and at some point the durability has to start going. Kianzad is still young and should show up looking better than last time, which kinda makes me lean towards picking her. Aside that though, it is closer fight than people would think on paper.

Correia via SD.

Ramazan Emeev vs. Niklas Stolze
Kind of a close fight. Emeev is another Russian grappler, kinda lazy style on the feet, throws wild counters and level changes to takedowns. Stolze seems pretty good regional fighter, decent striker offensively but tends to get caught with hard shots. I dunno, I worry that he might get caught with a hard shot that puts him out, though Emeev isn't bigger power puncher out there.

Either way most likely outcome is that Emeev is by far the best grappler Stolze has faced and thus Emeev will dominate via takedowns and top control as usual.

Emeev via UD.

Nathaniel Wood vs. John Castaneda
Castaneda is a solid regional fighter from the Latin American scene with a well-rounded skillset, but this matchup does not really make much sense anyway, cause despite getting KOd by Dodson, Wood is still one of the brightest prospects in the bantamweight division. Wood was hanging in there with Dodson pretty evenly before getting reckless and getting caught, and Castaneda is nowhere near the boxer Castaneda is.

In grappling, Wood is extremely good of course, so while Castaneda can be somewhat competitive in this fight, I don't see him having the advantage in any aspect of the game. Should be pretty one-sided fight.

Wood via UD.