UFC on ESPN 15 Post-Fight Analysis

 My losing streak continues and it is getting to the point of crisis. I am gonna talk more about the downswing in my betting journey as usual in the final segment, first let's talk about the fights.

Main Card

So I guess Frankie Edgar is a top challenger in bantamweight, or definitely at least in the mix? I don't see him being able to get the title, but he obviously showed he can still hang and perhaps even beat the top contenders of the division. Though as far as decisions go, I don't agree with that one. To me, Munhoz dominated the fight with pressure for almost all the rounds, although I suppose almost everyone agrees second round was Frankie's round.

Rest of the way? Yeah, Frankie arguably had the volume in at least three rounds, but fights are about more than just volume. In every round it was Munhoz landing the cleaner shots and even if you say Frankie's volume offset that, then the striking was pretty much even - so Munhoz' forward pressure should have won the rounds. I'm not gonna call it a robbery, but questionable decision anyway. I respect counterstriking, but it does not win fights unless you are clocking the opponent consistently hard.

Mike Rodriguez was one of my few correct picks for the night. Prachnio was always gonna be chinny and when Rodriguez started blasting him with elbows and knees, it was only a matter of time before he would drop. Too bad I did not trust him much so he did not recover me much from the brutal loss.

Joe Solecki put on a solid display of grappling against Austin Hubbard and got the first round finish. In the fight prior to that Shana Dobson shocked almost everyone as a huge underdog, beating Agapova who started hard and started very dominant, but could not get Dobson out of there, and most definitely could not keep up the pace he set. Will the fighters ever learn a fight is more a marathon than sprint?

So Dobson reversed position in the 2nd round and finished the exhausted Agapova. Good job on her, she was certainly fighting for a place to remain in UFC and improves her MMA record to still questionable 4-4.

Speaking of sprinting from the start, Dwight Grant had Daniel Rodriguez badly hurt in the first round, but perhaps gassed himself out a little throwing everything at Rodriguez while trying to end the fight. Rodriguez weathered the storm and whether Grant was gassed or not did not matter, cause it was clean shots landing that dropped Grant for a finish. The fight lasted barely over 2 minutes, but a lot happened in those two minutes. Great scrap.

Prelims

I had a feeling Lemos could give trouble to Inoue with her power, and turns out that was one of the few times tonight I was right. Lemos dropped her in the first, and he powershots were enough to even win the latter rounds on most judges' scorecards. 

I thought Jordan Wright would be too small to be challenge to Isaac Villanueva, but I turned out to look silly on many fronts. First of all, sure Wright was much the lighter guy, but his frame was much bigger than Villanuevas, and he never allowed Villanueva a chance to start powershotting him cause he used his good distance striking and clinch when Villanueva tried to step in range. In the end it was pretty dominant showing. Technique 1, power 0. 

I did not see much of the first two fights thanks to having technical difficulties. Suffices to say, my picks in those fights were little more than guesses and were wrong as a result.

My picks

So I got 3 out 9 right. Only 3. Again. Two times in a row. I have not tracked how many events I have exactly done these reviews for, but I never had less than 5 right on any given event until last weekend. Today makes it back to back events with only 3 picks right.

As always it can't be always just bad picks in one event, there is enough luck element on any given night. For instance, I got Rodriguez right in the preview, but accidentally bet on Wright. That would have made it more tolerable 4/9 night immediately. Still, when two results back-to-back are such strong anomalies, something is wrong. I can take losing money just fine, I am betting with sufficiently small money that it makes no difference to my life, but being wrong constantly starts to bother you over time. 

Still, I am winning in the long term, but in these last two events I have lost over a third of what I gained in the 10 months before. Talk about brutal swing. 

So we established the D-Rod fight was a tough break for me, what else was unlucky? Well definitely the main event decision not going my way. I can't complain too much given I have gotten wrong decisions for myself too, but I could have used that one. 

I guess that's it as far luck element goes. So even with those I would have only been 5/9 and probably not even breaking even yet.

My best pick was Joe Solecki, who always seemed tough stylistic match-up for Austin Hubbard. As far as worst pick goes... Well easily Mariya Agapova, whom I lost a ton of money on but had I won, I would have hardly gotten anything back anyway. Similarly Timur Valiev was bet on with tiny odds, if I don't know anything of the guys maybe it's a good time to take a punt on huge odds?

Certainly you would have made good money tonight simply betting on the underdogs. Edgar, Solecki, Dobson, Lemos, Semelsberger and Jones as picks would have made handsome profits. With even stakes presumed, it would be something like 15 units up on a quick calculation.

There's gonna be events still every weekend for many weeks to come, so one month from now I might feel completely different as long as I turn the results around a little bit. First step though is to lower the stakes, one reason I have been running such big losses is because of overbetting as a response to losses. I need to re-establish winning ways before letting the stakes start to increase.