UFC Fight Night 172 Preview & Predictions
I am exhausted, wrote almost all of these straight.
Benavidez is the more intelligent, technical fighter, I suppose. He is also 35 years old and got KOd by Figueiredo last time around. Figueiredo is very powerful for the weight class and for his size, and his size is barely able to make 125, indeed which is why we are having this rematch, since he missed the weight last time around.
So all the physical advantages are with Figueiredo, who also got chance to figure out the timing of Benavidez last time around, so won't need to feel around so much in the first round this time.
People talk about the headbutt in the first fight like it was a major turning point, but you have to see it for what it is, narrative to sell this rematch. The headbutt is just something that happens, might happen again this time, was definitely accidental, and does not change the point that Benavidez can't take so hard head impacts any more, certainly not as well as he used to do.
The moment Figueiredo connect anything solid, the fight will be over.
Figueiredo via 2nd round KO.
Gastelum has great boxing but because of what I wrote there I really struggle to see how he would get to use it. Hermansson does not need to come in because of his large reach advantage, so there won't be much opportunities for Kelvin to even catch him coming in, and Hermansson can absolutely dominate the grappling if it goes there.
I do think Kelvin is an elite fighter and an elite fighter always has a chance to carve out a win, but it is really hard to see Kelvin doing it this time around.
Jack Hermansson via 3rd round TKO.
Marc Diakiese vs. Rafael Fiziev
Fiziev is famously the striking coach at the renowned Tiger Muay Thai, but this is a big step up in competition for him after beating Alex White. Despite being only 27, Diakiese has already had as many fights in UFC as Fiziev has total pro fights.
Fiziev did look great against White though so all in all there is no reason to expect this to not be a close fight. However, it is not easy to outstrike Lando Vannata and Diakiese not only did that, he completely shut Vannata out. So I am leaning towards Diakiese having the striking advantage, but it is not by a lot and Fiziev can definitely outbox him if he can keep trading in the pocket.
That seems unlikely though since Diakiese has very good movement. Can Fiziev limit that movement by hurting his legs early? I am not so sure about it. In grappling this also is a close battle but I just think Diakiese is bit more adept there too so he might pull away with takedowns if Fiziev starts getting ahead with strikes.
Marc Diakiese via UD.
Ariane Lipski vs. Luana Carolina
I lean towards Lipski here, cause Luana Carolina won against a complete can last time around in Priscila Cachoeira. That said you cannot clearly call a winner in this one cause both have holes in their game. Lipski fights with aggression, has decent power and boxing but tends to kinda dive into the lap of the opponent. Carolina is a tall girl with clearly very strong clinch, but she is also very hittable in boxing, no head movement to speak of.
So I see Lipski pushing forward and tagging Carolina couple of times, then Carolina grabs hold of her and goes to town with knees. Rinse and repeat. Could Lipski just completely steamroll her and end up on top? Absolutely. But with a chaotic fight like that, a big shot can happen any time that changes the outcome.
This goes to the category "bet on whoever has the bigger odds" cause I don't have clear idea on how it goes and who will dominate the proceedings.
Well the odds are close enough that I will pick Lipski. Lipski via UD.
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Askar Askarov
This should be a very close fight. Pantoja is one of the very elite flyweights on the planet and the more well-rounded fighter of the two, but Askarov is simply better at what I view are the key positions in MMA - clinch, takedowns and top control.
So probably Pantoja has the first round in the back, defending takedowns, countering effectively, but also probably losing some top control but not too much to lose the round. However as the fight progresses, if Pantoja does not score enough damage he will start to wear down from the constant forward pressure and become easier to control in the clinch and in grappling.
So all in all I would say in a decision, it's 40/60 to Askarov. Of course, lot of fights end before full 15 minutes... Pantoja is more likely to score a KO or catch Askarov in submission, though I think grappler of Askarov's quality is not gonna be easy to submit. Either way its very close to call. I think although Askarov is more likely to win a decision overall Pantoja has the edge to win this fight.
With these odds, Askarov is a great value pick. Askarov via UD.
Khadis Ibragimov vs. Roman Dolidze
Ibragimov is strong, aggressive fighter with reasonable takedown threat and an alright clinch. Also, contrary to the popular belief, he is not badly conditioned either. His problem is that he does not have any fight IQ or ability to measure his gastank, he just floors the gas from the start going 100 % until he inevitably gasses 3 or 4 minutes in. Then he inevitably gets picked apart, though still throwing the occasional power shot that might take your head off if it lands.
So the question essentially becomes, Is Dolidze good enough defensively as well as durability-wise to survive that first round and then start dominating a gassed opponent?
Well, I don't know. There isn't much tape of him yet thanks to his pro career being only 6 fights long, and obviously he has not fought very high level competition yet. But from what I can see he seems slightly sloppy and wild, but definitely far more measured in his approach than Khadis. Still I expect Dolidze being more than willing to engage in some wild standing and trading. So when two guys of this size just go at it fresh with 4 ounce gloves... you might as well flip a coin.
Dolidze is clearly very powerful, he completely flatlined his last opponent with a spinning backfist, so even in wild trading I give slight advantage for him, and obviously if it goes far beyond 1st his advantage will become clearer and cleared. I do think they somehow make it out of 1st and Dolidze will just piece up Khadis until he just starts to wilt.
Roman Dolidze via 3rd round submission.
Grant Dawson vs. Nad Narimani
Interesting fight. Narimani fought very similar opponent last time around and got TKOd, but before getting caught he was actually on top in that fight and had only been taken down once and having been able to get up after it. I don't think there is any doubt about Dawson probably getting some takedowns, but I do think Narimani can keep getting up and outstriking Dawson.
Dawson is not very likely in my mind to KO Narimani like Grundy did, so all in all I expect a very close fight where rounds will be razor thin between Narimani's effective but not very damaging striking and Dawsons takedowns, submission threat and top control.
Either way when fight seems that close but has a clear underdog, it is worth it to take a punt. Narimani via UD.
Joseph Duffy vs. Joel Alvarez
The question really is how faded is Duffy at this point. The man who once submitted McGregor has looked like he struggles to keep up with the game, but he has the experience and more rounded game here. Alvarez is powerful and extremely rangy for the division so I think he will be a problem on the outside, but Duffy should be able to take him down fairly easily and work the ground game.
Surely Duffy's experience and skill acquired over the years is enough to top control for an easy decision? Well, that's how it seems like but Duffy has not fought a lot lately and Alvarez might have closed that hole in his game. Either way it should be a close contest outside of that possibility.
Joseph Duffy via UD.
Brett Johns vs. Montel Jackson
Both of these guys are young enough to be still considered prospects, but whoever wins will start to go up the rankings and make a title run, I believe. Jackson is clearly the rangier, more technical and faster striker, but both of them like to clinch, so I don't really see them exchanging a lot, and in clinch and grappling it will be a lot closer fight.
Still, I can't look beyond Jackson in this fight. It might be close battle in the grappling, but all in all Jackson should have too many physical advantages as long as he does not completely fade from the relentless grappling transitions.
Montel Jackson via UD.
Malcolm Gordon vs. Amir Albazi
So couple of glorified regionals here. Both seems dangerous sub-hunters, pretty even skillsets actually, but the difference that really sticks out is that Albazi is much more durable of the two. Gordon has been KOd a few times and got dropped in his last fight as well and although he managed to turn that one around, all in all it doesn't look like he takes a shot too well.
Either way looks like a one that could be pretty even so can't make this pick with any kind of certainty.
Albazi via 2nd round submission.
Davi Ramos vs. Arman Tsarukyan
If these guys were as famous as their skillsets are good, this would be a PPV main card worthy fight. We have very powerful, dangerous BJJ expert in Davi Ramos going against one of the most intense, well-rounded and best prospects of in the game in Tsarukyan.
Both of these guys share a loss to Islam Makhachev, who of course is one of the best fighters in the division. In between Arman took a decision against Aubin-Mercier. Overall Ramos might be the better rounded fighter, but Arman pushes the pace and pursues takedowns and stays on you. Ramos needs more of a measured pace not to fade, but then again he is elite grappler, so he won't mind too much grappling with Tsarukyan.
Either Ramos hurts Arman early, or catches him in the grappling, otherwise Arman's pace will make him fade and lose a decision.
Not super strong conviction about this, but Ramos is also older and Arman should be even more improved from last performance, which helps me lean towards his way.
Tsarukyan via UD.
Sergey Spivak vs. Carlos Felipe
I don't know and after writing so many previews in a row, I don't care. It's low level heavyweights. Flip a coin. I mean seriously, Spivak isn't very good. Felipe is more powerful guy, but has not fought since 2017 because of USADa suspension so who knows how he will be.
Felipe via 1st round KO
Main Event: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Joseph Benavidez
Sometimes when two people rematch there is reasons to think it won't go exactly like it went the first time, such as when Conor fought Diaz for the 2nd time, or the recent Volkanovski v Holloway rematch. This is not one of those times though, it's a fight where first time went pretty much how I called it and there is little reason to think anything changes this time around.Benavidez is the more intelligent, technical fighter, I suppose. He is also 35 years old and got KOd by Figueiredo last time around. Figueiredo is very powerful for the weight class and for his size, and his size is barely able to make 125, indeed which is why we are having this rematch, since he missed the weight last time around.
So all the physical advantages are with Figueiredo, who also got chance to figure out the timing of Benavidez last time around, so won't need to feel around so much in the first round this time.
People talk about the headbutt in the first fight like it was a major turning point, but you have to see it for what it is, narrative to sell this rematch. The headbutt is just something that happens, might happen again this time, was definitely accidental, and does not change the point that Benavidez can't take so hard head impacts any more, certainly not as well as he used to do.
The moment Figueiredo connect anything solid, the fight will be over.
Figueiredo via 2nd round KO.
Co-Main Event: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Jack Hermansson
Again the physical realities are the story of this fight. Hermansson has good footwork and absolutely huge 6.5 inch reach advantage, so he can just circle and pick Gastelum from the outside, and just like Till did when Gastelum tried to close distance just grab hold of clinch when Kelvin tries to close the distance.Gastelum has great boxing but because of what I wrote there I really struggle to see how he would get to use it. Hermansson does not need to come in because of his large reach advantage, so there won't be much opportunities for Kelvin to even catch him coming in, and Hermansson can absolutely dominate the grappling if it goes there.
I do think Kelvin is an elite fighter and an elite fighter always has a chance to carve out a win, but it is really hard to see Kelvin doing it this time around.
Jack Hermansson via 3rd round TKO.
Marc Diakiese vs. Rafael Fiziev
Fiziev is famously the striking coach at the renowned Tiger Muay Thai, but this is a big step up in competition for him after beating Alex White. Despite being only 27, Diakiese has already had as many fights in UFC as Fiziev has total pro fights.
Fiziev did look great against White though so all in all there is no reason to expect this to not be a close fight. However, it is not easy to outstrike Lando Vannata and Diakiese not only did that, he completely shut Vannata out. So I am leaning towards Diakiese having the striking advantage, but it is not by a lot and Fiziev can definitely outbox him if he can keep trading in the pocket.
That seems unlikely though since Diakiese has very good movement. Can Fiziev limit that movement by hurting his legs early? I am not so sure about it. In grappling this also is a close battle but I just think Diakiese is bit more adept there too so he might pull away with takedowns if Fiziev starts getting ahead with strikes.
Marc Diakiese via UD.
Ariane Lipski vs. Luana Carolina
I lean towards Lipski here, cause Luana Carolina won against a complete can last time around in Priscila Cachoeira. That said you cannot clearly call a winner in this one cause both have holes in their game. Lipski fights with aggression, has decent power and boxing but tends to kinda dive into the lap of the opponent. Carolina is a tall girl with clearly very strong clinch, but she is also very hittable in boxing, no head movement to speak of.
So I see Lipski pushing forward and tagging Carolina couple of times, then Carolina grabs hold of her and goes to town with knees. Rinse and repeat. Could Lipski just completely steamroll her and end up on top? Absolutely. But with a chaotic fight like that, a big shot can happen any time that changes the outcome.
This goes to the category "bet on whoever has the bigger odds" cause I don't have clear idea on how it goes and who will dominate the proceedings.
Well the odds are close enough that I will pick Lipski. Lipski via UD.
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Askar Askarov
This should be a very close fight. Pantoja is one of the very elite flyweights on the planet and the more well-rounded fighter of the two, but Askarov is simply better at what I view are the key positions in MMA - clinch, takedowns and top control.
So probably Pantoja has the first round in the back, defending takedowns, countering effectively, but also probably losing some top control but not too much to lose the round. However as the fight progresses, if Pantoja does not score enough damage he will start to wear down from the constant forward pressure and become easier to control in the clinch and in grappling.
So all in all I would say in a decision, it's 40/60 to Askarov. Of course, lot of fights end before full 15 minutes... Pantoja is more likely to score a KO or catch Askarov in submission, though I think grappler of Askarov's quality is not gonna be easy to submit. Either way its very close to call. I think although Askarov is more likely to win a decision overall Pantoja has the edge to win this fight.
With these odds, Askarov is a great value pick. Askarov via UD.
Khadis Ibragimov vs. Roman Dolidze
Ibragimov is strong, aggressive fighter with reasonable takedown threat and an alright clinch. Also, contrary to the popular belief, he is not badly conditioned either. His problem is that he does not have any fight IQ or ability to measure his gastank, he just floors the gas from the start going 100 % until he inevitably gasses 3 or 4 minutes in. Then he inevitably gets picked apart, though still throwing the occasional power shot that might take your head off if it lands.
So the question essentially becomes, Is Dolidze good enough defensively as well as durability-wise to survive that first round and then start dominating a gassed opponent?
Well, I don't know. There isn't much tape of him yet thanks to his pro career being only 6 fights long, and obviously he has not fought very high level competition yet. But from what I can see he seems slightly sloppy and wild, but definitely far more measured in his approach than Khadis. Still I expect Dolidze being more than willing to engage in some wild standing and trading. So when two guys of this size just go at it fresh with 4 ounce gloves... you might as well flip a coin.
Dolidze is clearly very powerful, he completely flatlined his last opponent with a spinning backfist, so even in wild trading I give slight advantage for him, and obviously if it goes far beyond 1st his advantage will become clearer and cleared. I do think they somehow make it out of 1st and Dolidze will just piece up Khadis until he just starts to wilt.
Roman Dolidze via 3rd round submission.
Grant Dawson vs. Nad Narimani
Interesting fight. Narimani fought very similar opponent last time around and got TKOd, but before getting caught he was actually on top in that fight and had only been taken down once and having been able to get up after it. I don't think there is any doubt about Dawson probably getting some takedowns, but I do think Narimani can keep getting up and outstriking Dawson.
Dawson is not very likely in my mind to KO Narimani like Grundy did, so all in all I expect a very close fight where rounds will be razor thin between Narimani's effective but not very damaging striking and Dawsons takedowns, submission threat and top control.
Either way when fight seems that close but has a clear underdog, it is worth it to take a punt. Narimani via UD.
Joseph Duffy vs. Joel Alvarez
The question really is how faded is Duffy at this point. The man who once submitted McGregor has looked like he struggles to keep up with the game, but he has the experience and more rounded game here. Alvarez is powerful and extremely rangy for the division so I think he will be a problem on the outside, but Duffy should be able to take him down fairly easily and work the ground game.
Surely Duffy's experience and skill acquired over the years is enough to top control for an easy decision? Well, that's how it seems like but Duffy has not fought a lot lately and Alvarez might have closed that hole in his game. Either way it should be a close contest outside of that possibility.
Joseph Duffy via UD.
Brett Johns vs. Montel Jackson
Both of these guys are young enough to be still considered prospects, but whoever wins will start to go up the rankings and make a title run, I believe. Jackson is clearly the rangier, more technical and faster striker, but both of them like to clinch, so I don't really see them exchanging a lot, and in clinch and grappling it will be a lot closer fight.
Still, I can't look beyond Jackson in this fight. It might be close battle in the grappling, but all in all Jackson should have too many physical advantages as long as he does not completely fade from the relentless grappling transitions.
Montel Jackson via UD.
Malcolm Gordon vs. Amir Albazi
So couple of glorified regionals here. Both seems dangerous sub-hunters, pretty even skillsets actually, but the difference that really sticks out is that Albazi is much more durable of the two. Gordon has been KOd a few times and got dropped in his last fight as well and although he managed to turn that one around, all in all it doesn't look like he takes a shot too well.
Either way looks like a one that could be pretty even so can't make this pick with any kind of certainty.
Albazi via 2nd round submission.
Davi Ramos vs. Arman Tsarukyan
If these guys were as famous as their skillsets are good, this would be a PPV main card worthy fight. We have very powerful, dangerous BJJ expert in Davi Ramos going against one of the most intense, well-rounded and best prospects of in the game in Tsarukyan.
Both of these guys share a loss to Islam Makhachev, who of course is one of the best fighters in the division. In between Arman took a decision against Aubin-Mercier. Overall Ramos might be the better rounded fighter, but Arman pushes the pace and pursues takedowns and stays on you. Ramos needs more of a measured pace not to fade, but then again he is elite grappler, so he won't mind too much grappling with Tsarukyan.
Either Ramos hurts Arman early, or catches him in the grappling, otherwise Arman's pace will make him fade and lose a decision.
Not super strong conviction about this, but Ramos is also older and Arman should be even more improved from last performance, which helps me lean towards his way.
Tsarukyan via UD.
Sergey Spivak vs. Carlos Felipe
I don't know and after writing so many previews in a row, I don't care. It's low level heavyweights. Flip a coin. I mean seriously, Spivak isn't very good. Felipe is more powerful guy, but has not fought since 2017 because of USADa suspension so who knows how he will be.
Felipe via 1st round KO
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