UFC Fight Night 190 Post-Fight Analysis

Not the most exciting card by any means. About average event for me in terms of results, tiny bit of winnings thanks to main event and co-main event hitting.

Main Card

Cyril Gane shut out Volkov according to some scorecards. I don't think the decision should have been quite that wide, but it was clear Gane took over during the five rounds of the fight. He doesn't have spectacular wins over anyone, but Gane doesn't make mistakes and is very skilled, tough guy to beat. Volkov couldn't really take full advantage of his reach, but largely shut out any grappling exchanges. 

The co-main was largely a forgettable fight even if Boser got the finish there. Boser got the first round with steady volume and OSP doing fuck all, and in the second when OSP started to grapple he had some success but promptly got KOd after that. OSP just isn't very good, all-in all. 

Valiev and Barcelos fought to a close decision. Barcelos had Valiev badly hurt in the second, but somehow only one judge scored it 10-8 for Barcelos so instead of a draw he lost a majority decision. I would argue actually Barcelos should have won, volume is nice but when one guy is landing clean, hard shots and walking you down the shots should count for much more than glancing blows. Tough one to lose, should have gotten a push at least.

Another tough one to lose was Fili completely dominating Pineda. That was probably my best pick of the night based on how the fight turned out. Unfortunately after nearly killing Pineda Fili touched his eyes with his fingers and the fight got ruled a no contest. The rules need to be changed as this will only keep getting more and more prevalent (and while we are at it, use better glove design).

Tim Means did get hurt for a bit against Dalby in the final round, but aside that it was quite smooth sailing for the dirty bird. Bad pick, don't know what possessed me to pick Dalby. Consistently lost in every range, all he had was some flurries all through the fight.

Renato Moicano was never in any trouble against Jai Herbert, even if they did exchange on the feet for a bit. Moicano showed he still has a chin and fought a smart fight pursuing grappling, eventually getting him the RNC win.

Prelims

Kennedy Nzechukwu is not very good. He is too big to KO though and too strong to submit, so when Danilo Marques gassed himself after being a human backpack for couple of rounds, Kennedy went to work and got him out of there. Expect to keep seeing Kennedy losing until he wins, that's how he has done it last couple of times. Actually arguably he has been dominated in all of his UFC fights, only to turn it around in the previous three matches. 

Shavkat Rakhmonov had massive size advantage against Michel Prazeres and used it well. He was bit cautious for my liking but in the end it worked for him, as he won the first and then hurt and finished Prazeres in the second with a submission. Just too much size disparity and probably some skill disparity too for a guy coming off of over 2-year layoff at 39. 

Jeremiah Wells pretty much killed Warlley Alves. Wells has power so he is live against anyone, but he probably was on his way to gassing in this fight. The burst of energy in the beginning of second round worked out for him this time, but see him having trouble going forward. 

Marcin Prachnio and Ike Villanueva had a wild and violent scrap as advertised. As he always does, Prachnio got rocked early, but then his leg kicks started to pay off. In the end it was a body kick that shut Villanueva down completely for the KO. 

Julia Avila and Julija Stoliarenko were on their way to a somewhat close decision when Avila found a RNC somehow with 41 seconds to go. Stoliarenko managed to keep the fight closer than I expected and even when taking damage, she was tough and willing to grind. ITD perhaps not the smartest bet there in the end, but I got bailed out.

Charles Rosa didn't have an easy time with Justin Jaynes at all, and could have arguably lost two rounds in that fight. Close first round before starting to take over in the second had him in good shape in the final round, until Jaynes badly hurt him and was very close to finishing him. Unfortunately for Jaynes, who had bet his whole purse on himself, showed very poor fight IQ by going to grapple instead of swinging for the bleachers. In the end Rosa survived to win a split decision. Probably worst way to lose an all-in bet on yourself.

Damir Hadzovic was just too good for Yancy Medeiros all through the fight, giving Medeiros a bad beating for 2.5 rounds. He did gas pretty hard at the end and Yancy had him deep in a choke by the end, unfortunately Yancy would have needed another minute or so to get a finish there.

My picks

With Fili fight being a no contest, I got decent 7 out of 12 picks right. My props were successful at 3 out of 4 picks going right, and I can thank the props again for a winning event, I didn't find value with the ML picks this time. 

Most of my bad picks had some redeeming qualities. Sure, Medeiros got dominated but he did gas Hadzovic in the end and almost sub him. Alves had strong start to his fight before getting randomly killed. Marques dominated the grappling before gassing and Barcelos arguably should have gotten at least a draw, if not win the whole fight. 

Dalby was the pick that was just bad. I don't even rate him, but guess I keep underrating Means or thinking he is more shot than he actually is despite writing that he isn't as shot as I think he is. Oh well.

Best pick would have easily been Fili had that win not got stolen from me. Most other winning picks were kinda obvious and not of great value, so I guess this defaults to Gane. The main event was a close pick on paper, but my instincts proved right that Gane's more multifaceted game will have him beat Volkov.

In the end, win is a win and I have now won 5 out of last 6 events and am in a run of three winning events. They have been small wins only though so there is still room to improve. Now we have a little break and next weekend.