UFC Fight Night 198 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Ketlen Vieira vs. Miesha Tate

Don't know, don't care. Tate looked great last time around, but I don't know how much weight you can put on beating someone who was a career journeyman in her 40s. Vieira is step-up from that, although she isn't top level fighter either, she is at least closer to her prime and should be able to compete.

General heuristic for me is that the game has evolved from 2015 days and that you can't come back to compete at elite level in this sport after being out, so let's go by that and pick Vieira.

Prediction: Ketlen Vieira

Confidence in winner: 1

Co-Main Event: Michael Chiesa vs. Sean Brady

Brady is pretty good, but been unspectacular so far, just kinda tightly edging most of his opponents. Chiesa is far more battle-tested of the two and has the grappling edge here. It's gonna be a close fight, but if people are gonna be favoring Brady so heavily here, Chiesa ought to be quite easy pick. I don't really see Chiesa getting dominated anywhere.

Still it's hard to feel confident either way, it's first real lithmus test for Brady.

Prediction: Michael Chiesa

Confidence in winner: 2

Joanne Calderwood vs. Taila Santos

Taila Santos is pretty comfortably the 2nd best fighter in the division, Calderwood part of the even mass that are getting completely dominated by Valentina. As for this match, think Santos has Calderwood covered in all ranges, and absolutely dominated in grappling. Should be clear win for Santos.

Prediction: Taila Santos

Confidence in winner: 3

Rani Yahya vs. Kyung Ho Kang

Yahya probably grabs some choke, but I don't trust him enough against any reasonably solid opponent to be betting him on these odds. Yahya chin randomly nuked, random cardio death and all are live plays here, but it could be kind of a cautious match too that goes to a decision.

Prediction: Kyung Ho Kang

Confidence in winner: 2

Davey Grant vs. Adrian Yanez

Grant is violent enough to make this a fun fight. Throws hard, defensively suspect, whereas Yanez is solid striker but did get caught a lot against Costa as well. They will throw a lot and someone is probably going down. Would favor Grant in a decision if he doesn't get nuked on the way there. I am betting someone does get nuked though.

At these odds after seeing how much Costa was catching Yanez, Grant is an easy pick, he won't fade in a similar way as Costa did in the second, but then again he is probably getting his face blasted already in the first much more than Costa did as well, the guy just has a penchant for violence.

Prediction: Davey Grant & FDGTD

Pat Sabatini vs. Tucker Lutz

Sabatini is alright, but kinda relies heavily on catching people on submissions. Lutz can be definitely competive everywhere and I would favor him in a decision here. Again not very strong feeling one way or another, just like Lutz better in this spot.

Prediction: Tucker Lutz

Confidence in winner: 2

Rafa Garcia vs. Natan Levy

Apparently Levy is the better grappler, and so far everything Rafa has shown on UFC kinda points to him being tough, but somewhat limited. Not really feeling it strongly, but guess we go for the undefeated prospect here.

Prediction: Natan Levy

Confidence in winner: 1

Loma Lookbonmee vs. Loopy Godinez

I like Loma and have soft spot for Muay Thai fighters for having lived in Thailand for 4 years, but as far as her UFC career goes, think she only beats lowest level of UFC competition. She lacks size and relies heavily on her clinch. Lack of volume is also bit of an issue. All in all Loopy is pretty tough match-up for her. Probably has the better boxing, higher pace and will just athletically dominate her if it goes to the clinch.

I don't know, I guerss Loma can definitely win here by making it largely a clinch fight where she manages to not get taken down, however the fact that Hughes had her pinned on the fence a lot is not a good look, Loopy can do that better and actually score some takedowns. 

Prediction: Loopy Godinez

Confidence in winner: 2

Terrance McKinney vs. Fares Ziam

McKinney has shown he has power and size to end anyone in this division, and he will be encouraged to start hard from the Vendramini R3 rush that had Ziam in big trouble. Wrestling is a bit of a questionmark, I think it probably doesn't take that much to outgrapple Ziam but whether McKinney is the guy to do that is another question.

I would bet for a fast finish, but I doubt there is good odds for that. Ziam might be defensively good enough anyway to weather the storm and probably will be technically better striker if this goes long. Still I kinda feel like I am gonna be on McKinney here, gotta see the odds first before I decide what plays I am on.

Have to back my boy McKinney at these odds. Fast rush for the win!

Prediction: Terrance McKinney & McKinney ITD & McKinney R1

Cody Durden vs. Qileng Aori

Durden seems like the more solid, well-rounded guy, but Qileng does pressure well, is able to take shot well and really hits for the bleachers. Still I think there is a chance Durden is the better striker here, and even if not he probably can take charge of the fight with wrestling if needed. Inside the distance should be decent shout too, Aori will pressure and doesn't have much of a defence. 

Prediction: Cody Durden & FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 3

Luana Pinheiro vs. Sam Hughes

Aside Pinheiro total cardio death, I don't see much chances here for Hughes. Hughes has not impressed in any facet in her first couple of fights, she might have some potential but as of what we have seen she still has lot to improve. Low volume, not particularly impressive anywhere. Pinheiro might put a pace that she can't keep up but will probably be comfortably outstriking Hughes and ragdolling her in the clinch.

Randa Markos is better fighter than Hughes and Pinheiro was well on her way to beating Markos. 

Prediction: Luana Pinheiro & FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 4

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke vs. Sean Soriano

Nuerdanbieke looked to have some good things going on for him in that first UFC fight and Culibao wasn't the easiest guy to face in a debut either way. Still, very rough showing on the feet, completely outgunned, and while some wrestling was there with willingness to use it, it just does not seem good enough to be consistently winning fights at this level.

As for Soriano, he on the other hand showed very sharp hands in that opening round against Giagos on short notice. Perhaps it was tiredness or whatever it was, he did get tangled into a choke in the early 2nd round, ending up with a loss. You'd expect him to show up fighting better here, so Nuerdanbieke is gonna be in trouble on the feet.

Not sure if Soriano is better striker than Culibao but he certainly is more powerful, so even more so than against Culibao, he needs to wrestle here. Most likely outcome is though that Soriano defends the early attempts and starts absolutely piecing him up - in that scenario, Soriano ITD is definitely live. 

If Nuerdanbieke does get an early takedown and good top control time, it does get closer. I still don't think he has much more than couple of committed takedown attempts to do it, but if he does score takedown in the first, it's a 50/50 fight from there on. 

All in all Nuerdanbieke has tools to develop into a decent fighter, but it's not all coming together yet, he is still too raw, and Soriano is an experienced fighter with explosive striking in his prime really needing a result here. I think we commit heavy on Soriano here and given weaker striker in Zhu Rong KOd Nuerdanbieke in the regional scene, I think R1 finish is live.

Soriano has been consistently beaten by good grapplers, but it's not like Giagos just dominated him on the ground, it was one moment of getting caught and there's no reason to think Nuerdanbieke is that level grappler. Soriano chin randomly cracking isn't a big concern either, the only KO loss in his career was R3 TKO. 

Prediction: Sean Soriano & Soriano ITD & Soriano R1

Confidence in winner: 4