UFC on ESPN 26 Post-Fight Analysis

Very up and down card for my betting, did some excellent bets but then ruined the profits with some pretty awful ones. Let's go through the fights as usual.

Main Card

Not much to tell about main event, it went pretty much as expected with there being a wide disparity between Islam and Moises. In the end Islam got the sub in the 4th and won the fight.

Miesha Tate via lay and pray was my gut feeling and my gut feeling turned out to be right. I talked myself out of that pre-fight, but I did have some of that live after seeing Tate was even beating Reneau standing, in the only area where Reneau was supposed to be able to hang. Good display, but 44-year-old retiring Reneau is not much of a yardstick to how good new Tate is. She did look fit and sharp though, so all in all good reasons to be pretty optimistic.

We didn't really get to see much where Jeremy Stephens is at, cause Gamrot dove for that very low single he always does pretty much right away, got the takedown and pretty quickly drowned Stephens into his grappling. Gamrot definitely is a problem to lot of guys in this division, interesting to see how far he goes.

Rodolfo Vieira had more than one round of gas tank after all... Should have just gambled Vieira by submission instead of trying to hit specific rounds. Stoltzfus pretty much gave Vieira the fight he needed cause he couldn't even put volume on the guy standing up, just getting jabbed to death. Weird fight all in all, not really a spot where you should get cute. On top of getting my initial pick wrong, I compounded the error with bad Stoltzfus livebet. That one was probably the worst bet of the night, not only cause I was laying money on a scrub, but also because I sized it way too big.

Billy Q on the other hand was one of the better picks of the night, cashing as an underdog after dominant fight where he hurt Benitez early and kept pouring the pressure until he got a late finish. The late finish allowed my prop to hit as well, so that fight worked out very well for me. Very small percentage of the time that fight goes to a decision after all the violence.

Prelims

D-Rod was clear favorite before the fight, put in a reliable, dominant performance to finish Preston Parsons. Then the best bet of the night Amanda Lemos putting on a violent KO on Montserrat Ruiz who is pretty awful let's be honest. Completely out of her depth against Lemos, and Lemos has the kind of power that puts you out if you give her a chance.

Khalid Taha on the other hand didn't work out, getting the grappler on underdog odds would have been much better better. Morozov could hang on the feet just fine, but the takedowns really made it a one-sided fight.

Malcolm Gordon was the side I was considering, but I didn't trust his fragility. He did work grappling urgently all through the match which made it impossible for Francisco Figuiredo to expose his fragility. Fig is not really good enough for this level, and realistically neither is Gordon, but Gordon can probably pick off some wins by grappling against regional level guys getting a chance at the UFC.

Finally the opening fight of the night was always gonna be violent. Baudot started strong, being able to stop the takedowns of Nascimento and really putting a hurting on him, it could not have been far away from a stoppage in the first round. In the second round Nascimento came out looking much better, and put hurting on Baudot on the feet and finished him. Another lesson for me that I should be betting ITD instead of specific method, I had Nascimento by submission there, but at least the prop bet hit once again.

My bets

My pre-fight picks performed awfully, partially because I was trying to be cute with specific methods and rounds too much, so I only got 4 out of 11 right. Props on the other hand went a little bit better, with three out of four hitting. Finally I got one livebet wrong for big loss and one right for small win, taking me in total to the slightest of profits.

Best bet was Lemos ITD which I hammered with appropriate betsizing, and worst bet was Stoltzfus live. In terms of pre-fight picks, trusting Fig at all was obviously a mistake, but I guess there was no right side that fight between two scrubs after all.

Another "almost good" betting event from me. Some great picks, running up quite a bit of profit, only to piss it all away with some silly bets. I'm getting there though. I think it's undeniable at this point that my eye for fighting has improved, but it will never be perfect, so much little details in this game. 

Have another low level event next weekend, those are usually better spots for profits so let's hope I can keep the winning ways going then.

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