UFC 237 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Rose Namajunas vs. Jessica Andrade

My first instinct about this fight is that Rose is going to get mauled. However, I figure I have to go deeper than that especially with this being my first post and all, so I went over and watched Andrade's last loss and in my opinion the most relevant one for this fight - her shot against Joanna.

After that my sentiment subtly changed - now I think she can ONLY win by mauling her. Rose is not as strong as Joanna, but she showed in their two fights to have as good if not better speed, footwork and boxing. 

The only problem with using the Joanna fight as an example is that it was kind of an old fight and happened already two years ago. Two years is a long time in a fighter's career, especially one as young as Andrade, who is only 27 now and should be entering her prime. So I turned my attention next to the free fight on Youtube that is much more recent - her KO against Karolina.

It was completely different fight. Whereas against Joanna the approach of Andrade was just bursts of explosion followed by plodding stalking, against Karolina she just swarmed her and got the KO after putting on pretty relentless pace.

Now obviously Karolina is not near same level counter-fighter as Joanna is and could not keep Andrade off her pretty much at all, so she was always going to look better against her, so we cannot conclude that things will be same against Rose. Rose will fight more like Joanna did - sliding backwards, stinging straight shots and kicks.

So I expect to see a fight that is somewhere between the two extremes. That is without even talking about the champ yet. Rose of course is still young herself and is coming off of dominating the prior champ twice in a row, and having never really had an easy fight in her time in UFC. Perhaps only gimme she has had was the fight against PVZ, which was an utter and complete destruction.

Her being as young as she is and being coached by what seems to me one of the best coaches around (Trevor Whitman) I completely expect to see vastly improved version of her as well in the cage. Of course the long time off could have also adversely affected Namajunas, but I think that is unlikely given that she never was the most active fighter anyway. 

Rose is small for the division and has become the champ she is by being crafty both on her feet and with her grappling. It is in that way very much a technique vs. strength match-up, and usually to me it seems technique wins those, at least within same weight class. Andrade is the most powerful strawweight there has ever been in UFC, but pretty much her only way to stop Rose is to swarm her in the first two rounds.

Unless she hurts Rose badly in those two rounds, I don't see her ever winning a five round decision. Although it is obvious she has improved her conditioning, people built for power just won't keep up the volume for five rounds, whereas Rose can keep peppering her with shots all night like Joanna did. 

With Rose being so crafty on the floor, I think it also seems less likely Andrade will submit her. Probably even taking Rose down would be more of a desperation move if she cannot get anything going on the feet. So Andrade has only one clear path to victory - early KO. At 115 pound division that is not a great chance for even someone as powerful as Andrade. 

Andrade is the betting favorite at the current odds so it seems like the consensus is that her superior strength will be too much for Rose to handle. It very well might be. For sure she will hit Rose harder than anyone has hit in UFC. But having strength does not help if you cannot get your hands on the other person. Rose is just hard to hit. If Rose can weather the early storm, she will take over the fight by the 3rd round latest.

That is why I disagree with the odds. It is an extremely close fight where Andrade definitely can win, but Rose just has more ways to do it. When all you really have is heavy hands, at best you are at 40 % chance in this division. So yea, my estimate is 60-40 percentages in Rose's favor. 

Co-Main Event: Jared Cannonier vs. Anderson Silva

Could this be the legend's last fight? I am shocked to see Silva as an underdog here especially after how well he did for himself in a losing effort to Israel Adesanya. I mean yeah, Cannonier is a powerhouse, but it is not like Israel doesn't hit hard too and Anderson took those shots. It is just hard to catch Anderson clean enough and despite his age, he still has a good chin.

So yeah, this is a bit like the main event in that power meets technique. Like I said in the prior prediction, technique usually wins these matches. The fact Anderson is underdog shows poor understanding that public have of this fact... and that people under-estimate Israel Adesanya and over-estimate power athletes who recently had great performances. 

Still, there is a point where strength disparity becomes so big that technique cannot overcome it, otherwise we would not have weight classes. Is Jared Cannonier just that strong that he can overcome one of the most dominant fighters in UFC history?

To be fair, he did look great in his middleweight debut, but at the same time this is a guy who got keeps dropping weight class cause he keeps getting KOd. Dominic Reyes is a great fighter, but I do think Anderson is still more skilled than the LHW prospect. All in all Cannonier's resume just does not look that great.

I am willing to accept though that this recent improvement has been significant and that he is a different beast at middleweight. Anderson Silva has been KOd before and Cannonier definitely has enough power to KO him. Problem is that based on Adesanya fight, Silva still has great reflexes and is one of the best counter-strikers of all time.

Obviously Silva is declined and his clowning around always gives opponent chances they would not have otherwise gotten, but I just cannot see how Cannonier is gonna touch him more than Silva touches him. Could he touch him clean enough to knock him out? Possible, but I would say it is even less likely than Andrade knocking out Rose. 

Silva's problem is that he is 44 and might decline rapidly already at this age. How much of the good Israel Adesanya performance was just Israel giving him too much respect? People obviously think it was a lot.

I guess it would be 50-50 if Silva had declined much from his last performance, but it was not a long time ago. I expect to see Silva that sees everything Cannonier tries to do which give a slim chance of Cannonier KOing him. Therefore, it is 70-30 fight for me for Anderson Silva.

Rest of the Fights

I actually wanted to write much more previews but turns out this takes quite a bit of time! So to cut things short, I will just give me vague estimates for the rest of the fights, at least the ones where I know the fighters involved well enough. Short thoughts on some fights too.

Jose Aldo vs. Alex Volkanovski

Featherweight legend who to me has proven he is still clinging onto the late end of his prime vs. one of best prospects of the division. In a way like the Moicano fight? Aldo has only been beaten by iron-chin Blessed and even then he repeatedly hurt him in the early rounds. Volkanovski will take a beating but if he is still around, he might be competitive in the 3rd round. I don't see it being enough to win a decision though. 70-30.

Thiago Alves vs. Laureano Staropoli 55-45

Irene Aldana vs. Bethe Correia 70-30

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Ryan Spann 30-70

Just can't trust Nogueira's durability here. Nor his speed.

Thiago Moises vs. Kurt Holobaugh 45-55

B.J. Penn vs. Clay Guida

Clay is still doing very well in the sport. He can still hang with top guys of the division, even if not win. So while this is a fight between two faded guys, Guida is still a real competitive MMA fighter, whereas BJ is just a shell of a one. Don't see there being any competition whatsoever in this one, 90-10 for Guida (always a chance for something weird happening in an MMA match).

Raoni Barcelos vs. Carlos Huachin 90-10

Luana Carolina vs. Priscila Cachoeira 30-70

Warlley Alves vs. Sergio Moraes 60-40

Talita Bernardo vs. Viviane Araujo 70-30