UFC 238 Preview & Predictions

The weeks prior and since this blog was started have not been kind to me. I have a god knows how long streak of getting all the main events wrong in my predictions, that was not broken until Smith won last weekend. Yea I did not write any predictions for that event, but I felt like a Gus was sufficiently spent force to lose to still hungry Smith. I bet on him and FINALLY I won a main event bet.

But I digress. Before Smith's victory, I don't even remember last time I got my main event pick right. Which was partially the spark for creating this blog – I figured that if I analyze the matches harder, I will get more of them right. Could not have been any more wrong. So far it looks like the smartest policy would be to bet against any pick I make – you would achieve nearly 100 % winrate through that.

All in all, MMA is tough sport to predict, but I am back to give it another shot. I am not gonna pretend to be smart enough to but percentages on it any more though, just gonna give my thoughts on the fights since we have quite the interesting card coming up this weekend. After all, if we are fair, I feel like I described the fights pretty close to the truth in the end, just ended up getting wrong picks.

Main Event: Henry Cejudo vs. Marlon Moraes

This one is a tough one. Moraes has not fought so long even in the UFC to leave a strong impression on me, and most of his fights have been quite short. I mean, I think he is very explosive and skillful guy, but I feel very unsure where to put him against Cejudo.

Where to put Cejudo to begin with? The guy is the reigning champ of course for fighting the perfect fight as a bigger man against DJ and still only getting a debated split decision (did not win the fight for me, if you ask), before knocking out always very hittable TJ who also was dehydrated. Don't get me wrong, I think he is a top level fighter, just kind of hard to gauge as to how top level, given both his wins against DJ and TJ have strange circumstances.

Aside that, he has only lost to flyweight elites Benavidez and DJ.  As for bantamweight, well fights start standing, so the fact he is smaller in this weightclass will be working against him. It is not like he is tiny or anything, but Moraes probably has few pounds on him which will help him keep it standing. That is presumably where he wants it and I figure Moraes will have the advantage on the feet.

So yeah, not feeling very strongly about this, but I do think Moraes will have the edge. Not a big one and it can definitely go either way, but probably Moraes finds a way to hurt Cejudo during the fight and finds a finish. Either that, or it will be very back-and-forth affair which he takes in a close decision.

Co-Main Event: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jessica Eye

Well this should be a wash? Jessica Eye is your run-of-the-mill, middle-of-the-road, functional modern female MMA athlete, but she is not really outstanding anywhere. Whereas Shevchenko came to UFC as world championship kickboxer that put the champ of the higher weight class to the ultimate test, arguably beating her and has crafted herself into a complete mixed martial artist.

Everyone talks about Valentina's kickboxing, but fact is she probably has grappling advantage here too, since she is just smart and disciplined in how she trains. We have seen her vastly improve her overall MMA game ever since she started and at the moment, she is quite a bit ahead of the pack at 125.

Nothing really new to offer here in terms of insight, but the best Jessica Eye could hope for is to snatch a round from Shevchenko via securing a takedown or something, aside that most of the match will be Shevchenko picking her apart on the feet.

The Real Main Event: Tony Ferguson vs. Donald Cerrone

Whoo, this one is the toughest of them all. Both guys are up there in age, at least when it comes to the athletes of the lightweight division, but both also have incredibly good track records. Tony Ferguson of course has the ridiculous win streak that makes him the real champ in my eyes anyway, and if the winner of this does not get the title shot I am gonna lose my mind.

Cerrone of course has picked up a few wins weight class above before ultimately realizing he is slightly undersized there and coming back down to 155 since becoming a dad. Dad Cerrone is 3-0 of course as we all well know.

Cerrone has his obvious flaws and they have been well documented, but he has the skillset of a guy who is good enough to be a champ, it is just matter of putting it all together. Ferguson as well has been shown to be vulnerable, getting tagged in almost every match and often dropped too, but being extremely hard get out of there combined with absolute elite cardio has meant he has always found the win in the end no matter how much adversity he has gone through.

So Tony should be able to put hard pressure on Cerrone and absolutely wear him out if not finish fast... but Cerrone probably easily has the advantage while it is on the feet. So first round will be wild, with Ferguson walking down nonstop and Cerrone throwing the kitchen sink at Tony.

Thing is, Tony is already 35 and I just can't trust his durability any more. Especially the long layoff and the strange news we have been hearing of him lately, it all just muddles this prediction. At his best Tony takes whatever Cerrone dishes out to him, eventually gassing him or finding the hard shots that put Cerrone out. But can we still trust to see the best Tony after such a long career of fighting very physically demanding style?

Then again, Cerrone has had a long career as well, and his durability looked great against Iaquinta. Better than it has even been. I also feel like if Lando Vannata can rock and almost finish Tony, then surely Cerrone can do it as well? I actually think if Cerrone has the ability to finish Tony if he does get him hurt.

In the end, I am teetering between the two sides. I might expect after long lay off that Tony won't be the same guy any more, but there is no evidence that he is not. That is why I have to have him as the slight favorite for this one, but this is an extremely close fight. So I am picking Tony Ferguson with some reservations...