UFC 238 Post-Fight Analysis
Smith's victory last week ended my streak in wrong main event picks, but my overall terrible record continued in today's event.
All credit to Cejudo though. Even though he barely squeaked past DJ (this should put DJ's stock up too considering how close his fight with Henry was), he finished Moraes with no ifs and buts. The first round was just what I expected from the match; Marlon dominating the fight with his range and power. That was his only good round though.
Cejudo smartly started to put more pressure on the 2nd and just drowned Moraes with his pace. It is ironic that both main event and the Ferguson v Cerrone fight turned out to be similar wars of attrition, where superior conditioning settled the fight, contrasting the recent fights of Holloway v Poirier and Namajunas v Andrade in which the more powerful athlete ultimately succeeded while the loser tried to just wear them out.
Moraes was able to get his recent opponents out of there fast, failing to do that today meant that he badly gassed. He just never managed to get Henry to stop his forward pressure with good counters. A smaller guy who went 5 rounds with DJ was always gonna have the better gas tank. Not seeing that beforehand makes me feel kind of stupid.
Valentina fight went even more dominantly that I expected. I mean, I had her correctly having advantage everywhere, but she did not really absorb any shots at all before putting an absolutely vicious KO on Eye. I wonder if Chookagian still wants that title shot... No girls on this division are even near Valentina in skills, it is going to take a good 2-3 years at least before she gets a legit challenge.
In Ferguson v Cerrone I got my pick right, but I had bet on Cerrone cause I believed the odds were too wide. I was expecting very close fight, but we did not really get that. Cerrone got some offense off sure, but he did not really land anything clean on Ferguson or have him hurt. It all was very predictable following that, Ferguson put damage on Cowboy and absolutely wore him out with the pace. It was pretty much perfect performance from Ferguson who really needs to fight for the belt next, he is the best fighter in this division aside the current champ.
And yeah there was the issue of the sucker punch and doctor stoppage in the end but it really was not a big deal. He was poised to strike just as the bell went off, did not really mean to sucker punch anyone even if it was very late. It was not decisive at all to the match either, most of the damage to Cerrone had been done already by then and he really dug his own grave by trying to blow his nose. His face was destroyed and if doctors don't stop it after that kind of damage, there is not even point of having doctors any more.
Still gutted about getting my main event prediction wrong though. I could not really accurately gauge how good of a fighter Cejudo is before the match, but I can now. Cejudo has holes in his game, but we can for sure now say he is a great fighter.
The combination of power and cardio he brings to the table means he is a tough out to deal for anyone. Fighting bigger guys at 135 he will have to fight that ugly pressure style though, as he will usually be at the wrong end of the reach equation and won't be able to match most of the guys strike for strike. He is too susceptible to leg kicks to do anything else than just stay on his opponents face the whole time.
He has improved so far every time he has stepped into the octagon and I have little doubt he can still improve further. Still, being the smaller guy at 135 will mean he will struggle with the distance even if he further polishes his stand up. So who's next? Dom Cruz is recuperating from injuries as always, Cody Garbrandt has been KOd couple of times and Urijah Faber has been retired for last couple of years and booked next against an unranked guy. So none of Cejudo's callouts really made any sense.
I am figuring it would have to be Aljo next. Speaking of Aljo that is one fight that I also predicted wrong. I was going by the impressions I had of the fighters but as soon as I saw the reach numbers I was like oh shit, I have this one wrong. He used his length and Munhoz, while perhaps more skillful with hands, could not make up for it. Sterling is the only guy with clear claim for number one contender spot and name value to warrant a title shot. Petr Yan put on a great performance on the main card too, but he is probably too unknown for most people to get the next title shot.
Especially if Cejudo wants to get paid, Yan is a lot of risk for little reward. That is not to say Aljo would be any easier opponent. Tough wrestler with long reach sounds like a nightmare stylistic matchup for Cejudo. So in that regard Yan would actually make more sense, pressure against pressure to see who drops first would make for a great fight.
The odds are Cejudo will sit back and enjoy his champ champ status, we probably won't see him fighting in a while now. They might even make Sterling v Yan for interim belt or something in the meantime. I mean this is UFC so you can't put anything like that past them...
Speaking of UFC, if they still pass over Ferguson, I am dead seriously stopping watching UFC. I don't care that he does not care who he fights next, if he is not fighting winner of Khabib/Poirier next, it is over for me with regards to UFC. I will get my fight fix on ONE FC and do something else with my Sunday mornings.
As for Valentina, Chookagian called her out... and who is there anyway? It does not matter anyway, no one of them has any chance against Valentina.
All credit to Cejudo though. Even though he barely squeaked past DJ (this should put DJ's stock up too considering how close his fight with Henry was), he finished Moraes with no ifs and buts. The first round was just what I expected from the match; Marlon dominating the fight with his range and power. That was his only good round though.
Cejudo smartly started to put more pressure on the 2nd and just drowned Moraes with his pace. It is ironic that both main event and the Ferguson v Cerrone fight turned out to be similar wars of attrition, where superior conditioning settled the fight, contrasting the recent fights of Holloway v Poirier and Namajunas v Andrade in which the more powerful athlete ultimately succeeded while the loser tried to just wear them out.
Moraes was able to get his recent opponents out of there fast, failing to do that today meant that he badly gassed. He just never managed to get Henry to stop his forward pressure with good counters. A smaller guy who went 5 rounds with DJ was always gonna have the better gas tank. Not seeing that beforehand makes me feel kind of stupid.
Valentina fight went even more dominantly that I expected. I mean, I had her correctly having advantage everywhere, but she did not really absorb any shots at all before putting an absolutely vicious KO on Eye. I wonder if Chookagian still wants that title shot... No girls on this division are even near Valentina in skills, it is going to take a good 2-3 years at least before she gets a legit challenge.
In Ferguson v Cerrone I got my pick right, but I had bet on Cerrone cause I believed the odds were too wide. I was expecting very close fight, but we did not really get that. Cerrone got some offense off sure, but he did not really land anything clean on Ferguson or have him hurt. It all was very predictable following that, Ferguson put damage on Cowboy and absolutely wore him out with the pace. It was pretty much perfect performance from Ferguson who really needs to fight for the belt next, he is the best fighter in this division aside the current champ.
And yeah there was the issue of the sucker punch and doctor stoppage in the end but it really was not a big deal. He was poised to strike just as the bell went off, did not really mean to sucker punch anyone even if it was very late. It was not decisive at all to the match either, most of the damage to Cerrone had been done already by then and he really dug his own grave by trying to blow his nose. His face was destroyed and if doctors don't stop it after that kind of damage, there is not even point of having doctors any more.
Still gutted about getting my main event prediction wrong though. I could not really accurately gauge how good of a fighter Cejudo is before the match, but I can now. Cejudo has holes in his game, but we can for sure now say he is a great fighter.
The combination of power and cardio he brings to the table means he is a tough out to deal for anyone. Fighting bigger guys at 135 he will have to fight that ugly pressure style though, as he will usually be at the wrong end of the reach equation and won't be able to match most of the guys strike for strike. He is too susceptible to leg kicks to do anything else than just stay on his opponents face the whole time.
He has improved so far every time he has stepped into the octagon and I have little doubt he can still improve further. Still, being the smaller guy at 135 will mean he will struggle with the distance even if he further polishes his stand up. So who's next? Dom Cruz is recuperating from injuries as always, Cody Garbrandt has been KOd couple of times and Urijah Faber has been retired for last couple of years and booked next against an unranked guy. So none of Cejudo's callouts really made any sense.
I am figuring it would have to be Aljo next. Speaking of Aljo that is one fight that I also predicted wrong. I was going by the impressions I had of the fighters but as soon as I saw the reach numbers I was like oh shit, I have this one wrong. He used his length and Munhoz, while perhaps more skillful with hands, could not make up for it. Sterling is the only guy with clear claim for number one contender spot and name value to warrant a title shot. Petr Yan put on a great performance on the main card too, but he is probably too unknown for most people to get the next title shot.
Especially if Cejudo wants to get paid, Yan is a lot of risk for little reward. That is not to say Aljo would be any easier opponent. Tough wrestler with long reach sounds like a nightmare stylistic matchup for Cejudo. So in that regard Yan would actually make more sense, pressure against pressure to see who drops first would make for a great fight.
The odds are Cejudo will sit back and enjoy his champ champ status, we probably won't see him fighting in a while now. They might even make Sterling v Yan for interim belt or something in the meantime. I mean this is UFC so you can't put anything like that past them...
Speaking of UFC, if they still pass over Ferguson, I am dead seriously stopping watching UFC. I don't care that he does not care who he fights next, if he is not fighting winner of Khabib/Poirier next, it is over for me with regards to UFC. I will get my fight fix on ONE FC and do something else with my Sunday mornings.
As for Valentina, Chookagian called her out... and who is there anyway? It does not matter anyway, no one of them has any chance against Valentina.
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