UFC 241 Preview & Predictions

Before I get to the predictions for the weekend's fights, let me just start by saying that the ONE FC card that ended a bit ago was straight up fire. Their MMA fights tend to flatter to deceive, except in the smaller weight classes, but the Muay Thai and kickboxing really delivered. Consistently good violence on display.

Anyway, let's start talking about the UFC event of the weekend...

Main Event: Daniel Cormier vs. Stipe Miocic

As always, there is a lot of unknown quantities here. Cormier's last fight was 10 months ago, against Derrick Lewis... so it really does not mean jack shit. 10 months is also a long time in the age Daniel is at. There is always the risk that you just get old "overnight" and it really shows in the performance. That is not to say that will happen against Stipe, but eventually father time catches up with everyone.

Stipe on the other hand is even more of an unknown quantity. He got KOd last time around, and it has been 13 months of sitting on the shelf for him. Did he take that time just easy, or has he been training like a fiend for the whole time to recapture his heavyweight gold? Only those who are close to him would know.

All we really know is that both guys seem to be in shape, at least that would be implication for the fact they have both dropped 10ish pounds since last fight. On the other hand, it could just be lost muscle mass from lack of training. I don't really believe in that though. To me, it promises that these guys are set out to go for absolute war and to deliver one of the all-time great heavyweight fights.

Of course, we all remember last time around it did not even last a round. So we really have limited info to go by there too. Stipe, for one, looked really good up until getting eyepoked, and shortly after KO'd. However, it is not like Daniel was not landing some really solid shots too. The fact Stipe got dropped with something of a dirty boxing, not so technical strike shows DC really has power at heavyweight.

So for my money, DC is the bigger threat for finishing the fight early. I also believe he has superior cardio, so even if he were to have a rough start, I am inclined to believe he would take over towards the end of the match. However, it is heavyweight, so obviously either can end the night at any point, and DC will have to be there to be hit for Stipe's combinations to get in range himself.

I would be surprised if it looked vastly different from the first fight - both exchanging combinations, DC walking Stipe down and Stipe generally getting the better of the striking. Both guys will absorb damage and try to wear each other out. So if we do not see a finish, we will see a war of attrition, in which I do think DC has the better chance.

This is an extremely close fight, though. 

DC by 4th round TKO, with Stipe having won 2 rounds to 1 in prior 3 rounds.

Co-Main Event: Anthony Pettis vs. Nate Diaz

Well, we talked of the main event guys having been on the shelf for a while, well Nate has been out for three long years. However, I do not see it being too much of an issue - the guy obviously trains as a lifestyle, and looks pretty buff for this fight, so I don't expect ring rust or anything like that become an issue.

Essentially, I expect same Nate Diaz to show up that showed up to both McGregor fights. Nate is not really a guy to spring surprises, we will see grit, rangy boxing, Gracie jiujitsu and endless cardio. Pettis has been fairly consistent too, at least in his last couple of showings. He is a skilled, creative striker that was able to hurt Tony Ferguson before breaking his arm in a war, then moved up to KO Wonderboy.

So Pettis obviously has power and the skill to beat anyone, but I keep teetering between thinking that he can just pick Diaz apart with his technique and him just drowning into Diaz pace. 

Leg kicks will be a big factor for this fight. Diaz seems stubborn to just eat them - has he learned from his past in the last 3 years to actually start checking them? I do think he is better boxer than Pettis, but at the same time, I am sure Pettis will find some openings to crack Diaz as well over the course of the match.

The problem for Pettis is that while he clearly has more power at 170, it takes some inhumane force to knock Diaz out. So the question becomes, will Pettis be able to get two rounds before ultimately Diaz takes over in the 3rd? Or will Diaz just keep outboxing him through the whole match?

Not saying Pettis has bad cardio, just believe that Diaz has better. On the other hand, will Diaz be smart enough to push the pace? Or will he be so badly compromised by third from getting pounded to the legs all match that he will not be able to even get the third?

It is a very close fight to call. The most similar opponents to Diaz that Pettis has fought were Tony Ferguson and Max Holloway - rangy, high-output strikers -  and to be fair Pettis did not look that great against either of them.

Nate Diaz by Split Decision.

People's Co-Main: Yoel Romero vs. Paulo Costa

Fight between two absolute physical specimen's; one in his athletic prime, the other supposedly fading, but somehow defying age and looking as terrifying as always.

For Paulo Costa, this is a massive step-up in competition from Uriah Hall. Given how Uriah was piecing up Costa before getting finished, you have to feel Romero will just box his face off. Costa is powerful, sure, but his technical ability seems functional at best.

Then again, when you are an athletic outlier sometimes just that is enough. Whether his skill is inferior or not, he has the kind of power that can turn Romero's lights out after just one mistake. He also has not fought in 13 months, so any info the Uriah Hall fight might give has to be taken with a grain of salt - surely he has improved a lot from that fight.

It is really hard fight to correctly assess. Young, improving fighter with crazy fight-ending power, who has knocked everyone he has faced out before even 8-minute-mark - against a guy who also has crazy power, has been at the top for years, but is already in his 40s.

Either the powerful young guy gets found out by the more skilled, experienced dude, or father time finally catches up with Yoel. Honestly, I think Paulo Costa would have a decent chance against even prime Yoel, although I would never consider him favorite. Now though, with Yoel being 42... I am just worried Costa finds an opening, connects with a combination and it is all over.

Yoel might land a bomb just as well which makes it such a volatile fight, but young guy's chin is much more likely to hold up, although Costa's haven't really been tested yet. Yoel is sure to put it to the test, but I just don't feel confident for it to be enough to win it for Yoel. Could Yoel win a plodding kickboxing match by points? Possible, but hanging at boxing range with Costa for 15 minutes sound like disaster.

Yoel's wrestling is another x factor for the fight. It is not that I think he could grind down Costa with clinching and chain wrestling - I don't think he has the cardio for it - but perhaps he could land early takedowns in couple of rounds, keep Costa down for the round and win a decision that way without gassing too hard.

There are so many moving parts here it is very hard for me to decide whether experience can overcome youth. The problem is that Costa has never fought anyone even remotely similar to Yoel. Stylistically closest was maybe Hendricks, but it an awful comparison cause Hendricks was completely washed up and just a ballooned-up welterweight.

Yoel does have the reach advantage, again supporting the theory that he probably can box Costa's face off. He also does have the wrestling to go to should that fail. Fuck it, I will go with Yoel even though there is nagging feeling that Costa will just KO him fast like everyone else.

Yoel Romero by Unanimous Decision.