UFC 242 Post-Fight Analysis

Abu Dhabi event is done... It was a mixed bag of an event with some tactical, cautious fights mixed in with some absolutely vicious KOs. Main Event did not spring up any surprises, as Khabib continued his dominant reign.

To that end, Poirier did about as well as I expected him to do. He had Khabib more troubled than anyone before him with a good shot he managed to land on 2nd. Khabib was not rocked or anything, but definitely felt it enough to start backing down. As expected though, every time Khabib got his hands on him, the round was as good as over and Dustin was not able to keep Khabib off him well enough to even win a round.

Now the obvious fight to make is the only guy matching Khabib's UFC win streak, Tony Ferguson. He is the only guy even remotely capable of threatening Khabib, there is zero appeal with McGregor rematch as that would be even worse destruction. Probably even Tony cannot stop Khabib's pressure, but he is the only interesting style match-up and high enough level of guy left in the division, once that fights gets done they can do whatever they want, division is as good as wiped out. 

In the co-main event the peripheral contenders Felder and Barboza slugged it out in an extremely close fight, just as expected. Felder did what I expected him to do, put much more pressure and showed willingness to clinch and attempt takedowns. Barboza was hitting him with everything and beating him up, but eventually started to wilt under the constant pressure.

In the end the decision could have gone either way. I kinda feel like in the current point system I would have scored it for Barboza - but if I scored it as a whole fight I would have scored it for Felder, as he took over clearly towards the end, whereas the prior two rounds, Barboza had only slightly edged. Just goes to show the problem in the system. I personally would just have sudden death 1 knockdown takes it all kickboxing overtime and if that brings no result, EBI style grappling escape competition to decide winner. But now I am getting off topic.

Islam Machachev hardly did himself favors in the plodding pace, tactical victory against Davi Ramos. I mean, it was a smart fight and he clearly won, but he is not gonna get high profile opportunities with fights like this. Unfortunately it is entertainment business after all. Ramos was all too willing to indulge Machachev in the slow pace fight.

It kinda seemed strange considering that surely he should have known he is at striking disadvantage? So his only effective means to win was to make it ugly in the stand-up or force grappling where he excels. By the time he did some of it, it was too little too late. Back to the drawing board for him and it certainly looks like he will never be the contender in MMA he could have been. I mean, no shame in losing to Machachev, but it is just the listless way he lost that concerns me that he does not quite have the grit to make it as a top MMA guy, even if he is great BJJ player.

In hindsight my Abrurakhimov pick was retarded, I acknowledged that I really could not see a way for him to win but suggested the odds were too wide. They really weren't. There really aren't much talent in the heavyweight at all. Blaydes basically can beat almost everyone except Ngannou easily. They probably match up for 3rd time in very near future for the title, and I can see those two dominating HW division for years to come. Blaydes is certainly running out of match-ups, one that would be interesting would be Jon Jones HW debut against him, but no one out there is calling for that so it probably won't happen. Or hell, DC to see if his wrestling will still work against Olympian?

Main card kicked off with fast-paced fight between Ferreira and Taisumov. It was a make or break fight for both of these fighters. Taisumov hurt Ferreira in the first, but could not put him away and the Abu Dhabi heat combined with massive volume from Ferreira wore him down. I acknowledged that Ferreira is the more complete fighter, but to see him be so much better conditioned than Mairbek was a surprise. If he can avoid getting KOd, he can certainly make a late-career run for the title, but he does not look like he could touch Khabib so it is a tough sell ultimately.

Prelims

Prelims went great for me as far as my picks goes. Belal Muhammad dominated Sato as easily as expected, and "won any way he pleased" by grabbing his first submission in the 3rd. Sarah Moras looked absolutely huge compared to the Russian regional fighter whose name now escapes me. Regardless, that poor girl looked completely out of her depth and got finished. Moras might still end up being cut because of her missing weight.

Omari Akhmedov and Zak Cummings had a close fight that Akhmedov ultimately edged in a decision. Nothing much surprising except that cardio played no role in that, since the fight was so slow paced.

Muslim Salikhov flatlined Nordine Taleb pretty bad, whose cautious slow-pace style was really perplexing. Played right into Salikhov's style, don't know what happened there. Speaking of being flatlined bad, Packalen got completely obliterated and was twitching on the floor after the KO shot of Azaitar. 

Packalen for all the time he had been off looked really poor in there and it only looked like a matter of time before he would get finished. He looked stiff and showed no positives to take out from a KO that is as vicious as you will ever see. I doubt we see him ever in UFC again, and after taking two bad KOs back-to-back, you have to wonder if he even fights again anywhere. As for Azaitar, he will need a real test next after this convincing, aggressive win. 

Calderwood v Lee was the first pick of the night that I really got wrong. My assessment that Lee is bit better turned out to just be wrong, Calderwood put a pace on her, landed good shots all evening and deservedly got the nod. She completely nullified any reach advantage and improved a lot over her last performance.

Zubaira Tukhugov vs. Lerone Murphy ended in a rare, yet probably correct draw. Tukhugov suffered from the heat worse out of all the fighters in the card and faded really bad in the end. Murphy showed he really has power but also had to grapple enough to show that he can survive in those situations. Unfortunately, he missed out on a win because he could not stop Tukhugov from wrestle-fucking him any time he got some momentum.

The night started with a clinchfest between Don Madge and Fares Ziam, in which latter found himself completely outmatched. He seems like he can somewhat hang on this level, but Madge laid out the blueprint to beat him for all the future opponents. It was not a great fight by any means, kinda disappointed Madge was unwilling to show his excellent striking, but win is a win in the end.

My picks

My biggest win was the correct pick of Moras, whereas my confidence in Taisumov ended up as the biggest loss. Overall, I got 8 out of 12 right, ending up with a winning night. In hindsight, it could have been quite a bit better without the awful Abdurakhimov pick. It is an encouraging start nonetheless for these picks where I do more research ahead of time. 

It also was one rare time when I got both the main event and co-main correct. Some of my wrong picks also give me heart for the fact that I still correctly assessed what kind of fight it will be.

Or it just might have been good luck. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to go forward. It will be a busy week ahead again, this weekend we have another fight night coming up.