UFC 242 Preview & Predictions
I will do something a little bit different today - I will actually write previews of ALL the fights since I spent the week actually researching the fights properly this time. Yeah, let's hope my awful rate of right picks will improve due to all the work I put in. Honestly 40 % success rate would be fine, haha.
Still, Khabib being so dominant in his one skill means that if he can just get his hands on you, the round is as good as over. The best anyone has ever done is Tibau and even he got pressed against the cage for the whole match, despite managing to stay on his feet. Besides, you can't give much weight to a very old fight where Khabib was still very raw.
I feel like Dustin won't have a chance to stop Khabib's takedowns if they do clinch up, so question is can he maintain the distance between them? If Al Iaquinta managed to do it, why not him too? I believe it certainly is possible that Dustin snaps off a round or two countering and keeping Khabib at arm's length. But his best chance of winning still is to KO Khabib, the earlier the better.
It is not enough to bank on though. Khabib has never even looked wobbled. So he has a good chin on him and because of his wrestling, he is never there to be hit for repeated shots. I am not saying it is impossible for Dustin to just starch him, but this certainly is no Masvidal v Askren - Khabib actually has much more solid kickboxing than he is given credit for. Still, Dustin will have the advantage on the feet.
I just dont trust him enough to be able to keep Khabib off him for the 25 minutes, not even enough to manage to take 3 rounds. I think if it goes to decision, the best Dustin will do is to lose 48-47, maybe win 1st and 3rd or something before the damage just starts to wear him down. I also believe Dustin is the better conditioned athlete of the two, but the problem is when Khabib fights his style of fight, he is never really worn out.
So only way Khabib were to gas out would be if Dustin somehow makes it into a high-pace kickboxing match. Which I believe at best happens only for maybe two rounds out of five.
As much as I believe Dustin has better chance than McGregor, Iaquinta or Barboza ever had, it is still overall a slim chance. Khabib by UD (49-46 x 3).
I expect to see much more forward pressuring and grapple-heavy Felder here. If he hangs out in the range with Barboza, he will take a beating, but if he crowds him and keeps the pressure, he might have an advantage. It is pretty much a 50-50 fight, I pick Felder provided he can actually close the distance and work some clinch and takedowns into a kickboxing battle that overall would be close. You also can't ignore how much damage Barboza has been taking in his last few fights, there comes a point where his chin will just go - hope not though, I love watching Barboza fight, and if he just starts getting KOd left and right it will be time to retire. Felder by split decision.
Islam Makhachev - Davi Ramos
Contrary to popular belief, this is a great card and not just at the top. Take this fight for instance - two unranked, but highly skilled guys. Lightweight is very deep and Makhachev has the well-rounded skillset to challenge even top-5 guys as it is - yet he is not even in the rankings.
Ramos is more just a powerful grappler, but still extremely dangerous. Machachev is the overall much better and more well-rounded fighter, but because of the power Ramos carries, he definitely has a good chance of winning here.
I am gonna go for Ramos here. Yes, I believe the most likely outcome is Machachev stopping the takedowns, skillfully outpointing Ramos with stand up and eventually having the Brazilian gas out, but Ramos definitely has a bigger chance of hurting and finishing Machachev than people give him credit for. So Ramos by 2nd round submission.
Curtis Blaydes - Shamil Abdurakhimov
Blayedes just has all the physical advantages here and great wrestling. Abdurakhimov is better than given credit for, but the problem is that his strengths of clinching and grappling are also strengths of Blaydes.
We should also remember Blaydes has never been beaten by anyone except Ngannou. So it takes a lot of power to take him out of there. Still, this is heavyweight so anything might happen, I feel the odds are too wide in Blaydes' favor. Maybe Abdurakhimov can make it an ugly clinch-fest and eek out a split decision? The crowd is supposed to be in his favor, so maybe the judging as well, if he can just withstand Blaydes' power. Abdurakhimov by "home-cooking" SD.
Mairbek Taisumov - Diego Ferreira
Yea, another proof that this is a great card full of unknown killers. Mairbek should be somewhere close to title contention already. Ferreira has been fighting top guys for a while and is unknown to modern fans cause he was out for couple of years, but has looked great since coming back. Whoever wins this is LONG overdue a top ranked guy.
Overall, I would say Ferreira is the more well-rounded fighter, capable of hanging in the stand-up, but absolute killer in the grappling. Problem is I feel Mairbek's takedown defence and grappling is good enough to stay out of trouble so he can work his superior stand-up and either run away with a decision or just completely flatline Diego Ferreira with his power.
Ferreira is not exactly young any more and has been knocked out before, so it is hardly bold prediction to think Mairbek starts landing some punches and takes him out of there. Taisumov by 2nd round KO.
Joanne Calderwood - Andrea Lee
I think skillwise, the differences are not massive, maybe I would say Lee is slightly better overall. But I think the 4 inch reach advantage and active style will be the factor to win this for Lee. I just don't really see Calderwood really successfully landing takedowns and clinch consistently enough to take a decision and although she is decent striker herself, the reach advantage will be too much to overcome. Lee by UD (3x30-27).
Zubaira Tukhugov - Lerone Murphy
This is an interesting fight. Tukhugov is not old, and he has been on the shelf for a long time. So we do not know how much improved fighter we will see. Murphy on the other hand is a raw, athletic unbeaten fighter from the regional scene.
Tukhugov was slated to fight Artem nearly a year ago, and that is the kind of level fighter he seemed to me at the time - peripherally UFC level fighter. He is not spectacularly good anywhere. So I believe Murphy who is something of a powerful knockout artist could cause him trouble on the stand-up. How is Murphy's grappling though? God knows, he has not fought any real level of competition to find out.
So there are many possible outcomes for this fight and I do not feel very confident of any of them. Tukhugov might actually just be much more skilled so he simply outpoints Murphy in the stand-up, not allowing him to land his power. Or maybe Murphy lands some hard early shots and shows an advantage in the stand-up, but Tukhugov manages to wrestlefuck him rest of the match, maybe even finding a sub in the process.
I am inclined to lean on the third option, which is that Murphy just storms in and puts Tukhugov out cold. Murphy in the 1st by KO.
Liana Jojua - Sarah Moras
I mean, who knows about these regional fighters. Jojua is young, so she might be much better than in her last fight... but she did not look that great in that fight. She scraped by a decision in a Russian promotion title fight, but at least she seems pretty functional fighter in all the facets of the game.
Moras is on a 3-fight losing streak, but she is a big girl who probably will have a size advantage and she can hit hard. On the other hand, she really is not someone you can really rely. Still, looking at the competition she is faced, she should be favorite for this one. It probably will be a close fight, but you would think Moras fights with fire under her belly - losing 4 in a row almost certainly would mean the end of her UFC career. Moras by split decision.
Ottman Azaitar - Teemu Packalen
As a Finn I will be rooting for Packalen, but he is also definition of the term I used earlier - peripherally UFC level fighter. He got badly KO'd by Diakiese last time around, and although Azaitar is not as explosive as Diakiese, I think it will be a tough night for Teemu.
Azaitar is somewhat powerful action fighter with enough of a chin on him to be able to take shots. He is hittable, so Packalen definitely has a chance to win if he puts his shots together, I just do not trust Teemu to have the kind of chin to be able to handle the power coming back. Hope I am wrong, but Azaitar by 1st round KO.
Belal Muhammad - Takashi Sato
Kinda strange matchup. Muhammad is basically ranked-level, very well-rounded fighter coming off of a convincing win against rangy Millender. Sato seems to represent a step-down in competition, laboring past Ben Saunders in his last match.
Belal basically wins this however he wishes to do it. He might take a patient approach to UD, but I believe he gets in there, puts his hands on Sato and finishes him fast. Remember The Name by 1st round KO.
Nordine Taleb - Muslim Salikhov
Taleb is a good fighter with no major holes in his game but... that's pretty much it. I mean I love watching him fight, but he is somewhat unreliable to bet on. Here he will fight against the plodding kickboxer Muslim Salikhov. Taleb being 38, you would think his age might show out there and his last fight against much smaller man does not tell us anything.
Taleb's team-mate Alex Garcia submitted Salikhov before and I think they will go for similar approach in this fight, try to put pressure, take the guy down and test how much he has evolved his grappling. I just don't trust Taleb to be as good of an offensive wrestler as Garcia is. So the more likely outcome is that this becomes a slow-pace kickboxing match that could really go either way.
In that, Salikhov should have the advantage, but his low output combined with the fact that Taleb has reach over him might mean it will be very close decision. I will go for Salikhov by SD anyway.
Omari Akhmedov - Zak Cummings
This should be all Akhmedov, but the guy gasses out in all of his fights, and this Cummings guy really has a chin on him.
Maybe, just maybe Akhmedov could have learned to pace himself better? He will win first round, probably, as he is better grappler and hits really hard. Second round will be close, but maybe he can put enough hurt on Cummings to get that one too, so in the third when he is tired he can coast. Akhmedov seems to me clearly the stronger and more skilled one, the only reason this one is even close is the tendency of Akhmedov to gas out. Still, Akhmedov by UD (3x29-28).
Don Madge - Fares Ziam
Madge made a statement in his UFC debut. Aggressive, powerful Muay Thai, combined with good enough grappling skills to avoid getting subbed and to get back up when taken down. Ziam seems like a good regional prospect with all the foundational skills right, a guy who could beat some UFC level fighters for sure, but Madge seemed like he is ready for big step up in competition, so feeding Ziam to him seems a bit strange. Madge by 1st round KO.
Main Event: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Dustin Poirier
What's there to say that has not been said before? It seems like people have finally woken up to how dominant Khabib is and he is rightfully rated as the clear favorite for this bout. Ironically, Dustin probably has the best chance to spring surprise out of the Khabib's recent opponents, for he has great boxing, packs decent punch and can keep a high pace all night.Still, Khabib being so dominant in his one skill means that if he can just get his hands on you, the round is as good as over. The best anyone has ever done is Tibau and even he got pressed against the cage for the whole match, despite managing to stay on his feet. Besides, you can't give much weight to a very old fight where Khabib was still very raw.
I feel like Dustin won't have a chance to stop Khabib's takedowns if they do clinch up, so question is can he maintain the distance between them? If Al Iaquinta managed to do it, why not him too? I believe it certainly is possible that Dustin snaps off a round or two countering and keeping Khabib at arm's length. But his best chance of winning still is to KO Khabib, the earlier the better.
It is not enough to bank on though. Khabib has never even looked wobbled. So he has a good chin on him and because of his wrestling, he is never there to be hit for repeated shots. I am not saying it is impossible for Dustin to just starch him, but this certainly is no Masvidal v Askren - Khabib actually has much more solid kickboxing than he is given credit for. Still, Dustin will have the advantage on the feet.
I just dont trust him enough to be able to keep Khabib off him for the 25 minutes, not even enough to manage to take 3 rounds. I think if it goes to decision, the best Dustin will do is to lose 48-47, maybe win 1st and 3rd or something before the damage just starts to wear him down. I also believe Dustin is the better conditioned athlete of the two, but the problem is when Khabib fights his style of fight, he is never really worn out.
So only way Khabib were to gas out would be if Dustin somehow makes it into a high-pace kickboxing match. Which I believe at best happens only for maybe two rounds out of five.
As much as I believe Dustin has better chance than McGregor, Iaquinta or Barboza ever had, it is still overall a slim chance. Khabib by UD (49-46 x 3).
Co-Main Event: Edson Barboza - Paul Felder
Rematch of a close fight they had a while ago now. It certainly looks like it will be a close fight this time around too. I feel Felder has improved since that first fight, whereas Barboza had stayed kind of the same. Of course, Barboza has shown that he still has it, especially from the beating he laid on Dan Hooker.I expect to see much more forward pressuring and grapple-heavy Felder here. If he hangs out in the range with Barboza, he will take a beating, but if he crowds him and keeps the pressure, he might have an advantage. It is pretty much a 50-50 fight, I pick Felder provided he can actually close the distance and work some clinch and takedowns into a kickboxing battle that overall would be close. You also can't ignore how much damage Barboza has been taking in his last few fights, there comes a point where his chin will just go - hope not though, I love watching Barboza fight, and if he just starts getting KOd left and right it will be time to retire. Felder by split decision.
Islam Makhachev - Davi Ramos
Contrary to popular belief, this is a great card and not just at the top. Take this fight for instance - two unranked, but highly skilled guys. Lightweight is very deep and Makhachev has the well-rounded skillset to challenge even top-5 guys as it is - yet he is not even in the rankings.
Ramos is more just a powerful grappler, but still extremely dangerous. Machachev is the overall much better and more well-rounded fighter, but because of the power Ramos carries, he definitely has a good chance of winning here.
I am gonna go for Ramos here. Yes, I believe the most likely outcome is Machachev stopping the takedowns, skillfully outpointing Ramos with stand up and eventually having the Brazilian gas out, but Ramos definitely has a bigger chance of hurting and finishing Machachev than people give him credit for. So Ramos by 2nd round submission.
Curtis Blaydes - Shamil Abdurakhimov
Blayedes just has all the physical advantages here and great wrestling. Abdurakhimov is better than given credit for, but the problem is that his strengths of clinching and grappling are also strengths of Blaydes.
We should also remember Blaydes has never been beaten by anyone except Ngannou. So it takes a lot of power to take him out of there. Still, this is heavyweight so anything might happen, I feel the odds are too wide in Blaydes' favor. Maybe Abdurakhimov can make it an ugly clinch-fest and eek out a split decision? The crowd is supposed to be in his favor, so maybe the judging as well, if he can just withstand Blaydes' power. Abdurakhimov by "home-cooking" SD.
Mairbek Taisumov - Diego Ferreira
Yea, another proof that this is a great card full of unknown killers. Mairbek should be somewhere close to title contention already. Ferreira has been fighting top guys for a while and is unknown to modern fans cause he was out for couple of years, but has looked great since coming back. Whoever wins this is LONG overdue a top ranked guy.
Overall, I would say Ferreira is the more well-rounded fighter, capable of hanging in the stand-up, but absolute killer in the grappling. Problem is I feel Mairbek's takedown defence and grappling is good enough to stay out of trouble so he can work his superior stand-up and either run away with a decision or just completely flatline Diego Ferreira with his power.
Ferreira is not exactly young any more and has been knocked out before, so it is hardly bold prediction to think Mairbek starts landing some punches and takes him out of there. Taisumov by 2nd round KO.
Joanne Calderwood - Andrea Lee
I think skillwise, the differences are not massive, maybe I would say Lee is slightly better overall. But I think the 4 inch reach advantage and active style will be the factor to win this for Lee. I just don't really see Calderwood really successfully landing takedowns and clinch consistently enough to take a decision and although she is decent striker herself, the reach advantage will be too much to overcome. Lee by UD (3x30-27).
Zubaira Tukhugov - Lerone Murphy
This is an interesting fight. Tukhugov is not old, and he has been on the shelf for a long time. So we do not know how much improved fighter we will see. Murphy on the other hand is a raw, athletic unbeaten fighter from the regional scene.
Tukhugov was slated to fight Artem nearly a year ago, and that is the kind of level fighter he seemed to me at the time - peripherally UFC level fighter. He is not spectacularly good anywhere. So I believe Murphy who is something of a powerful knockout artist could cause him trouble on the stand-up. How is Murphy's grappling though? God knows, he has not fought any real level of competition to find out.
So there are many possible outcomes for this fight and I do not feel very confident of any of them. Tukhugov might actually just be much more skilled so he simply outpoints Murphy in the stand-up, not allowing him to land his power. Or maybe Murphy lands some hard early shots and shows an advantage in the stand-up, but Tukhugov manages to wrestlefuck him rest of the match, maybe even finding a sub in the process.
I am inclined to lean on the third option, which is that Murphy just storms in and puts Tukhugov out cold. Murphy in the 1st by KO.
Liana Jojua - Sarah Moras
I mean, who knows about these regional fighters. Jojua is young, so she might be much better than in her last fight... but she did not look that great in that fight. She scraped by a decision in a Russian promotion title fight, but at least she seems pretty functional fighter in all the facets of the game.
Moras is on a 3-fight losing streak, but she is a big girl who probably will have a size advantage and she can hit hard. On the other hand, she really is not someone you can really rely. Still, looking at the competition she is faced, she should be favorite for this one. It probably will be a close fight, but you would think Moras fights with fire under her belly - losing 4 in a row almost certainly would mean the end of her UFC career. Moras by split decision.
Ottman Azaitar - Teemu Packalen
As a Finn I will be rooting for Packalen, but he is also definition of the term I used earlier - peripherally UFC level fighter. He got badly KO'd by Diakiese last time around, and although Azaitar is not as explosive as Diakiese, I think it will be a tough night for Teemu.
Azaitar is somewhat powerful action fighter with enough of a chin on him to be able to take shots. He is hittable, so Packalen definitely has a chance to win if he puts his shots together, I just do not trust Teemu to have the kind of chin to be able to handle the power coming back. Hope I am wrong, but Azaitar by 1st round KO.
Belal Muhammad - Takashi Sato
Kinda strange matchup. Muhammad is basically ranked-level, very well-rounded fighter coming off of a convincing win against rangy Millender. Sato seems to represent a step-down in competition, laboring past Ben Saunders in his last match.
Belal basically wins this however he wishes to do it. He might take a patient approach to UD, but I believe he gets in there, puts his hands on Sato and finishes him fast. Remember The Name by 1st round KO.
Nordine Taleb - Muslim Salikhov
Taleb is a good fighter with no major holes in his game but... that's pretty much it. I mean I love watching him fight, but he is somewhat unreliable to bet on. Here he will fight against the plodding kickboxer Muslim Salikhov. Taleb being 38, you would think his age might show out there and his last fight against much smaller man does not tell us anything.
Taleb's team-mate Alex Garcia submitted Salikhov before and I think they will go for similar approach in this fight, try to put pressure, take the guy down and test how much he has evolved his grappling. I just don't trust Taleb to be as good of an offensive wrestler as Garcia is. So the more likely outcome is that this becomes a slow-pace kickboxing match that could really go either way.
In that, Salikhov should have the advantage, but his low output combined with the fact that Taleb has reach over him might mean it will be very close decision. I will go for Salikhov by SD anyway.
Omari Akhmedov - Zak Cummings
This should be all Akhmedov, but the guy gasses out in all of his fights, and this Cummings guy really has a chin on him.
Maybe, just maybe Akhmedov could have learned to pace himself better? He will win first round, probably, as he is better grappler and hits really hard. Second round will be close, but maybe he can put enough hurt on Cummings to get that one too, so in the third when he is tired he can coast. Akhmedov seems to me clearly the stronger and more skilled one, the only reason this one is even close is the tendency of Akhmedov to gas out. Still, Akhmedov by UD (3x29-28).
Don Madge - Fares Ziam
Madge made a statement in his UFC debut. Aggressive, powerful Muay Thai, combined with good enough grappling skills to avoid getting subbed and to get back up when taken down. Ziam seems like a good regional prospect with all the foundational skills right, a guy who could beat some UFC level fighters for sure, but Madge seemed like he is ready for big step up in competition, so feeding Ziam to him seems a bit strange. Madge by 1st round KO.
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