UFC Fight Night 158 Preview & Predictions

Time will tell if this whole "preview the whole card" thing will be sustainable for me, but encouraged from the reasonably good rate of correct picks last weekend, I am here to try my hand at it again with all the fights researched to some extent.

Main Event: Donald Cerrone vs. Justin Gaethje

Interesting fight for sure. There was a time couple of years ago after Masvidal KO'd Cerrone when it looked like Cowboy was done, then he became a father and seemed to regain his focus. He had a great momentum going on his return to lightweight division until Ferguson steamrolled over him. 

Still, there is no shame in losing against perhaps the best lightweight out there and at least Cerrone showed in that fight that he is still relevant fighter. Here in this matchup against Gaethje he seems like the overall more well-polished fighter, the issue is that Gaethje is not a great stylistic matchup for him.

Traditionally Cerrone has struggled with guys who put heavy pressure on him. Justin Gaethje is all pressure with complete disregard for his own safety. His game is definitely more crude, he primarily just marches forward, takes shots to his skull, tries to take your head off with his punches and brutalizes you with his kicks. Cerrone will land his share of counters if the match goes on for longer than a minute, but it will be overall a problem for him how to stop the constant forward motion.

Cerrone is similar to Gaethje's last opponent, Barboza. Cerrone does have more of an offensive grappling game to make the fight interesting though. It really is a toss-up here, but I have my suspicions on Cowboy's durability, even with a solid recent run. At the same time, you cannot entirely rely on Gaethje's durability either, he has taken a couple of KOs since entering the UFC and will be always vulnerable for those with his head-first style. Cowboy is offensively potent enough to knock him out, but definitely Gaethje carries more power.

If the fight goes long it might be a brutal war of attrition, cause even if Cowboy manages to slow Gaethje down with takedowns or solid counters, he will never stop coming forward. I would be very surprised if this goes to decision, but I will for sure hope it goes as long as possible, cause it is gonna be hella fun. I have Gaethje by KO, 3rd round.

Co-Main Event: Glover Texeira vs. Nikita Krylov

This one could go either way too. Krylov is a very offensively potent fighter, but so is Texeira. Of course, I have my suspicions on Krylov's defence. He seems to not be able to manage distance very well. I actually think Glover has slowed down so significantly offensively, that at least in the beginning, he won't be much of a threat to Krylov in stand-up.

But because of Krylov having a tendency to get too close to his opponent, I can easily see him timing a takedown. Then it becomes a question of is Krylov's grappling good enough to survive with Glover.

Of course, Krylov probably has a pretty clear speed advantage and is the better outside striker. So if he sits back and does not get overly aggressive, he can probably pick Glover apart from distance.

In essence, you cannot really trust either of these guys for different reasons. Krylov does have clearer advantages and is young, but he is always liable to get caught with something, and while Glover has slowed down, he can still crack hard and take you out of there. When things are 50-50, you gotta bet on the youth, so Krylov by 2nd round KO.

Todd Duffee vs. Jeff Hughes

So 4 years after getting brutalized by Frank Murr, Todd Duffee makes his comeback and somehow this fight ends up on the main card. I mean, I dunno, Duffee has name value, but somehow you feel this should be in the prelims. Regardless, it is intelligent match-making from UFC, cause we have no idea where Duffee is at after such a long time away.

So it is smart to put him in there against a guy whose strengths are the same as his - namely boxing. Hughes is an alright boxer, well kinda alright everywhere but boxing is his best skill. He is borderline UFC level fighter, but definitely if Duffee goes out there with as little head movement as against Mir, he might get KOd again.

Still, for someone nicknamed "lights out" he does not really have that many KOs on his resume. Because of Duffee's long layoff and because of Hughes being kinda basic, there really is not much to say about this fight. I really have no strong feeling of who is gonna win, but it does seem Hughes has the better fight IQ to have made a career out of his relatively limited physical talents, whereas Duffee has the clear power advantage as well a little reach advantage.

Obviously it is set up to be a winning comeback fight for Duffee, whom UFC probably wants to win. So, I guess Duffee by 1st round KO, but without feeling strongly about it.

Michel Pereira vs. Tristan Connelly

Speaking of setups... This is a complete massacre of a match-up. Well, I have been wrong before, but Pereira's opponent got replaced less than a week before a match, and Connelly really seems to have his work cut out.

So in Pereira we have a big welterweight with crazy athleticism, long reach and very explosive fighting style. Even against regular welterweights its normal for him to KO guys fast. Connelly? Well, I found no tape on him, but based on the little info we have this is a small, flabby lightweight that has been something of a regional subhunter with barely wins from about two thirds of his fights.

I suppose he has some sort of a path to victory by making it a grappling match, but I do not see how he would do that. I mean, I always want the small, less athletic guys to win but here I can only see a fast and spectacular KO for Pereira. With all that range and countering ability it's hard to think Connelly gets his hands on him.  Even if he does and has all the technique, will he simply be at a too much of a strength disadvantage?

Hope he gets paid well, cause this looks like brain damage waiting to happen. Pereira KO within 2 minutes.

Uriah Hall vs. Antonio Carlos Jr.

This card is full of fighters that you just can't rely on. First we have Uriah Hall that just seems to not always show up, but has that moment of magic, good power and great skills on the outside. On the other side is an excellent grappler Antonio Carlos Jr. who at least last time out got very tired against Heinisch.

For what it's worth, Uriah has never lost by submission, and I really don't see Antonio Carlos Jr. wearing him down with some chain wrestling approach. I mean, I guess its possible? Obviously he will try to get Uriah down over and over again. It is matter of how much punishment can Uriah deliver in return. 

If he can stay on the outside, this is his match to win. It is just a question of which Uriah Hall shows up. Yea, he beat Bevon Lewis last time around, but he really did not look great at all for most of that match. Both guys have clear paths to victory so it is about who imposes their will better. In that, I am just worried Uriah will accept Carlos clinching up and dragging him to the ground too easily. 

This is one of those fights that can go in many ways. Uriah might starch Carlos, or he might get immediately subbed. On the otherhand, it might become grapplefest that is kinda stalemate for most part. Although Uriah has showed willingness to get hit lately, I still don't think Carlos has much of a chance to hurt him in the stand-up. I will go against my best instincts and pick Uriah by 3rd round KO.

Misha Cirkunov vs. Jim Crute

I mean, I guess? Let's throw the promising youngster in with an absolute killer. I am not saying Crute is not ready for it, but this is a big step up in competition. I actually assess these two to be close in skills, but still, how much can you really trust on a young fighter that has not fought this highly ranked competition before?

It's no way to treat prospects in my opinion, the level of opposition should grow more gradually. Still, it's not like Crute has no chance, it's just a dangerous fight for a fighter this early on his career.

Striking will be Crute's path to victory. He is a powerful guy with a good footwork, but then again, so is Cirkunov. Certainly the advantage does not appear to be very pronounced, if there is any - but if Cirkunov manages to close the distance and get to the clinch, Crute might get completely exposed. So yeah, Crute is a live dog here, but Cirkunov just has more weapons available. Cirkunov by 2nd round Sub.

Marcin Tybura - Augusto Sakai

Arloski beat Sakai comfortably for three rounds, so it is amazing judges somehow gave that decision to Sakai in his last fight. But at least he could hang in there with Arlovski, it is something. Tybura looked pretty bad last time around, but he should be the more battle-tested and better rounded fighter. Heavyweight matches though are bit of a guesswork thing. Tybura by 2nd round sub.

Cole Smith - Miles Johns

Johns showed some great power and wrestling in his Contender series fight, but also some questionable fight IQ. Smith looks like he would be better in the distance, but it will be tricky to keep it out there. Miles Johns by 2nd round KO.

Brad Katona - Hunter Azure

So it's the Ultimate Fighter vs. Contender - and we have generally seen lately that TUF produces the better talent. Katona kinda hit his ceiling in his last fight, but while he clearly lost, at least he had some moments in the fight. Azure took an easy win in the Contender series but his opponent really did not look anything like an UFC level fighter. Katona is definitely that.

Azure is similar to the other Contender newcomer from the above fight, Johns, in that he seems pretty powerful and functional striker, but makes questionable decisions. He clearly outmatched his opponent in the series but could not him out of there despite them being very compromised by the end. He seemed to also have a little bit of a tendency to overcommit to his strikes.

Katona's lack of reach will make this an interesting fight, but I do feel that Katona can deal with the range much better than Azure's previous opponent, and he definitely has the better footwork here. He also would seem to have good enough takedown defense and grappling to neutralize any threat from there. It might be a close fight, but I fully expect Katona's better fight IQ and good durability to take him to a decision win. Katona by UD.

Chas Skelly - Jordan Griffin

Skelly has very awkward stand-up, so I kinda feel Griffin will be at pretty clear advantage while the fight is standing. Expect Skelly to come with a grapple-heavy approach. I still don't think he has enough of an advantage there to win. Dan Ige is a much better fighter than Chas Skelly is, and Griffin managed to make it a close fight, so he can probably find a win this time around. Griffin by 2nd round KO.

Louis Smolka - Ryan MacDonald

Smolka is pretty much an established middling level fighter in UFC, whereas MacDonald could not have given a worse account for himself in his UFC debut. Dominated from start to finish, the only positive he could have taken from that fight is that he showed himself to be fairly durable. 

Still, debut is always a different situation, and he might have just been frozen on the night. I will kinda take the attitude that we really have no clue as to how good MacDonald might actually be. Smolka is a very different stylistic match-up, but he is very experienced so I expect him to be able to win this. Smolka by 2nd round Sub.

Kyle Prepolec - Austin Hubbard

Prepolec got dominated in his short notice debut against Taleb, but gave relatively good account of himself against the bigger man. Hubbard is a functional striker as well, so standing up this will probably be a close fight. Probably the clinch will settle this one, but I am not sure which way it will go, but I lean on Prepolec. Prepolec by UD.