UFC Fight Night 159 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Yair Rodriguez vs. Jeremy Stephens

Both guys in the main event have got themselves a similar style match-up to their previous fight. Yair of course last fought against Korean Zombie almost a year ago now in Denver, getting that crazy last second elbow KO after a closely fought war. Stephens on the other hand fought another rangy, flashy guy in Abraham Lincoln Zabit Magomedsharipov and looked competitive but ultimately was second best.

So with the match-ups being similar and one being a winner, one being a loser, this ought to be a clear cut pick for Yair, no? Well, yea. Yair is a young guy who has been off for a while now, and I presume that in such a long absence, he would show up improved, whereas Jeremy Stephens is who he is and probably already past his prime. Not shot by any means, but he ain't gonna suddenly look great again.

Well, he might just KO Yair fast and that would constitute looking great I suppose - Stephens always has it in him to put people out if he can just get his hands on them. The stalking style Stephens uses will be favorable in the elevation, but Yair showed he can keep up a decent pace in elevation in his last fight. Should that be the case, Stephens will struggle to get the distance and be pieced up from the outside.

It is a close fight and I expect Stephens to have great moments. Still, it is unlikely he gets the win if he does not get a KO. The home crowd is sure to sway the judges if it is a close fight going to a decision. Which is why I am bit surprised to see Stephens as the favorite. I am gonna go with Yair with UD.

Co-Main Event: Carla Esparza vs. Alexa Grasso

So both of these chicks got quite recently mauled by the female Khabib that is Tatiana Suarez. Grasso then went on to starch Karolina, but that does not really tell us much, since she has not been the same in recent years. Esparza is gonna try to beat Grasso with similar style that Tatiana used, of course being nowhere near that level wrestler.

Is she still good enough to get the job done? I cannot answer to that with confidence. What I can say is that if there is a style that can confidently be picked against Grasso, it is the whole physical grappling approach. Herrig and Suarez gave Grasso her only losses and Randa Markos, also a willing grappler, took her to a split decision.

So this is a classic script for a fight - the kickboxer piecing up the grappler on the feet, but then having to deal with her on the ground if the grappler gets her hands on her. Grasso is young so she might have improved her grappling and takedown defence a lot. With Esparza, you know what you are gonna get.

I would expect that at least one of the rounds ends up being Esparza wrestlefucking Grasso, but how much of the fight will be like that will decide who wins. I am going to guess that Grasso has improved her wrestling defence enough to land the most significant offense in the fight and edge a close UD.

Other fights

Askar Askarov vs. Brandon Moreno
Askarov comes from the Russian regional scene and was a title holder there. He seems to have alright fundamentals and very dangerous sub grappling, but he does not have a great takedown defence. Laying on your back and hunting submissions is not really a consistent method of winning on UFC level, so Moreno should be able to pick his shots and control the fight with takedowns and be skilled enough to avoid getting caught in anything. Moreno by UD.

Irene Aldana vs. Vanessa Melo
Aldana was supposed to fight Reneau, but Melo has been switched in within less than a week's notice. I probably would have picked Aldana either way, but it is even easier pick now. Melo seems to employ very plodding, counter-based kickboxing style and is a natural 125er. So matched up against a huge and rangy 135er in Aldana I don't expect this to be a close fight.

It is not like Aldana is going to throw backflips and gas herself out, nah, they are just gonna exchange punches and kicks at range and Aldana is going to run away with a safe decision.

Martin Bravo vs. Steven Peterson
These guys had a common opponent in Bruce Leeroy, and based on those fights Peterson did better, even if Bravo somehow only lost via split decision - at least Peterson did not get rocked and almost finished like Bravo did. Bravo probably has the better cardio and technique here, but Peterson is more powerful, aggressive and durable.

So I expect Peterson to hurt Bravo at some point and finish him. Peterson, 2nd round KO.

Jose Alberto Quinonez vs. Carlos Huachin
Well I did watch both of these guys fights earlier this week but now that it is time to write about them fighting, I can't remember a thing from either. My assessments say Huachin has much more power, is the better boxer though and has the better chin. So Huachin 1st round KO.

Marco Polo Reyes vs. Kyle Nelson
Reyes is 34 and has been knocked out 4 times in his career, coming into this fight with back-to-back KO losses. I am not saying he has completely lost his chin or anything, after all it was not a single shot from from Dober that dropped him in his last fight, but rather a whole barrage of them, but still it is a worrying sign and does not bode well against a heavy-handed guy like Kyle Nelson.

Aside that it seems a close fight, so if Reyes makes it out of the 1st round he has a good chance. I just am not confident that he will. Nelson by 1st round KO.

Angela Hill vs. Ariane Carnelossi
Carnelossi looks very similar to Andrade. Broad-shouldered, aggressive and powerful strawweight with a very simple gameplan. She can hit hard, take a shot and keep the pace up. Angela Hill is a tough debut though, for I expect Angela to not be there to be hit and even if she does get pieced up a little, she can probably take it. Hill might be just short of elite, but she can hang in there with anyone.

If the Carnelossi of last fight shows up against Hill of last fight, it will still be an even match-up. Things get even more interesting though thinking if the younger fighter has improved and the older declined a little bit. Still, fighting generally favors experience, at least until experience comes with being aged. Hill has shown no signs of losing her durability, so that should not be an issue.

It's a coin flip, but I will go with Angela Hill by close UD.

Sergio Pettis vs. Tyson Nam
Initially I thought that well, this Tyson Nam guy seems like a decent prospect. He is a bit raw, but has the basics right. Then I checked his age and uh... 35? Those Asians man, they look young. Well, guess you kinda have to throw him into the deep end then by matching him with Pettis right away. Pettis looked hopelessly undersized against Rob Font, and I don't think his style translates very well into bantamweight division, but I think he should still easily get past someone like Tyson Nam.

Sergio Pettis by 2nd round submission.

Vinicius Moreira Castro vs. Paul Craig
Well Castro has two UFC fights but less than 6 minutes of fight time, and he got KOd both times. Of course, he did fight a couple of very powerful guys, but he just seems very slow and clumsy, even for a low-level light heavyweight. Craig at least is the type of match-up that would probably be willing to grapple with him, but I just haven't seen anything about Castro to inspire any confidence to pick him.

Just does not seem fast, strong or durable enough to be at this level. Craig probably is not either, but I think if there ever is a chance of him being faster than someone, it is in this match. Craig is an unique case as well, since he has below .500 UFC record and even the fights he won he was mostly dominated in. Whether he was fighting other grapplers or explosive strikers he has always seemed to be losing the fights. If he cannot look good in this match-up, his days in UFC are very well numbered.

Paul Craig by 1st round Submission.

Claudio Puelles vs. Marcos Mariano 
Puelles pulled off one of the comebacks of the century in his debut, but it really was not a good look overall for him. He was just getting pieced up in the stand-up and did not look remotely UFC level. Mariano is a very rangy guy, but seemed a little timid at least against Vannata in his last fight and appeared to have no ground game.

So in the end neither of these guys are someone you can rely on. Puelles does have youth on his side so the hope is that he would have learned a lot from his rough, but ultimately winning debut and comes out looking much better in this fight. But like I said, cannot really trust on it, so I have a hunch this will be slow paced, timid fight where the rangier fighter will just closely outland the smaller one. Mariano by UD.