UFC 243 Preview & Predictions

Some tricky fights to predict in this event just like all the others, but I feel actually pretty confident that it will be a good event. Let's get straight to it.

Main Event: Robert Whittaker vs. Israel Adesanya

Adesanya has really skyrocketed right to the top of UFC's middleweight division and comes to the title fight with unbeaten record, having hardly shown any chinks in his armor. Only in his last fight against Kelvin Gastelum he showed any real vulnerabilities. However, I would argue it only made him look more impressive, to get put through adversity, getting badly rocked and still rallying to a dominant finish.

Even with some bad moments, Adesanya easily won that fight and arguably should have gotten a stoppage on the 25th minute. Regardless, he has the best striking in the UFC middleweight division at the moment. Gastelum managed to hurt him, but I would also say Gastelum is one of the best boxers in UFC, so that does not mean so much in the end.

It would be wrong to say that Whittaker is completely outgunned on the feet though. He is also impressively well-rounded. The comparison to GSP is not too bad cause although he is not really exactly a wrestler, he can hit a well-timed takedown and his game hardly has any holes. Is it really good enough to be a good all-rounder against a specialist like Adesanya, who has not really shown much weakness so far?

Adesanya has been stuffing takedowns with solid percentage all through his UFC career, and even when taken down, he has shown good ability for some offense of his back as well as being able to get back up. He is not lost on the ground like lot of kickboxers who transition. He also has a massive reach advantage, which will allow him to unload on Whittaker without needing to rush forward. Whittaker might be good grappler, but he is no Khabib for sure.

That Wonderboy Thompson KO is far in Whittaker's past and he is a better fighter now than he was then. Still, that is the closest style match-up he has had in recent memory that is similar to this, except Adesanya is comfortably better fighter than Wonderboy (that being said, the two of them would be a fun match-up in the future).

All-in all I would say Whittaker needs to clinch-up Adesanya and try to work a takedown heavy style. Not exactly his best skill, but like I said, he is very well-rounded, so he can do that too. Can he do it well enough to consistently take down Adesanya is a whole another matter... On the feet Bobby Knuckles will be competitive, but he does tend to get cracked in most of his matches, and although excellent in surviving, I feel Adesanya's accuracy and killer instinct would end the fight right there if he gets badly hurt. Also if Whittaker does go for takedown hunting, that aggression will play straight into Adesanya's counter game.

Whittaker has more ways to win, but you can't escape the feeling all of those are somewhat unlikely. In the end though it probably evens out as close to 50/50 fight. Odds seem to agree, but I don't really see Whittaker pulling it off. It will be interesting to see how he solves a puzzle that no one else in MMA has been yet able to solve, if it happens.

Israel Adesanya by UD.

Co-Main Event: Al Iaquinta vs. Dan Hooker

Honestly, I don't feel strongly either way in this fight. Obviously both have shown themselves to be offensively dangerous but also both had very disappointing defeats in recent memory where they took lot of punishment. 

In the end Iaquinta is the more experienced and multi-faceted fighter, but he probably is also slightly past his prime already. If anything, if he wants one final title run, this is a fight he would have to win. Hooker on the other hand is at reach and youth advantage here, so while the past fights would indicate that he is probably a little short of skill against Iaquinta, the career trajectories might work into his favor in this one.

Hooker having the reach makes me think he can control the stand-up, but Al is good at crashing the distance and can definitely hurt Hooker with his boxing. Still I would be inclined to think he will look to clinch and take Hooker down. Hooker can fight on the ground, but generally he has not been much of a takedown threat during his career in UFC, so I don't see him ending up on top in the ground exchanges.

With all that being said, I think it should be close to 50-50 with perhaps Hooker as ever so slight favorite. Hence I will go for the underdog Iaquinta taking a close UD.

Tai Tuivasa vs. Sergey Spivak

Not much to write about this one. Tuivasa is decent for heavyweight standards, hits hard, has some cardio, can stuff a takedown and even threaten his own sometimes. Spivak seems like he can be a good fighter, but he got destroyed in his first UFC fight before showing much. This time you would expect him to give a better showing, but I am worried Tuivasa just rushes him with aggression again, gets him to freeze like in Spivak's debut and puts his light out.

Spivak is worth a play as a large underdog - to be fair, we have not really seen how good he can be yet. He seems to have the basics right to be able to make this competitive. Sergey Spivak by UD.

Luke Jumeau vs. Dhiego Lima

This one is very close fight in all facets. Lima probably has the edge in the stand-up, but his chin is suspect at best. Both are decently well-rounded. It's just hard for me to trust someone who gets hurt so easily like Lima. Decision could go either way if this is a cautious fight, but I feel Jumeau has the better chance to get a finish. Luke Jumeau by 3rd round submission.

Jake Matthews vs. Rostem Akman

Another interesting fight with very contrasting styles. Matthews plants his feet down, is big for the weight class and cracks with all his might, while also working for takedowns. He tends to fade if the fight goes long though. Akman on the other hand has great cardio and fights in a technical, fleet-footed style. Overall his stand-up does not impress me though. Still, he could easily outpoint Matthews, survive the initial onslaught and avoid getting takedown for a close win.

I still agree with the odds that Matthews probably is at an advantage here, however don't feel strong about the whole fight. If he does win it, he probably does it early, so Matthews by 1st round TKO.

Yorgan de Castro vs. Justin Tafa

Two inexperienced, powerful heavyweights get at it. Castro's kicks have some serious heat and Tafa does not really check much of the kicks. He seems a bit lumbering but at that size, guess that is to be expected - I saw him cutting weight to make the 265 limit on Instagram. 

Tafa has massive size, toughness and power on his side though. De Castro will have to fight very smart to not get KOd. Gotta feel that Tafa's size will mean that if anyone takes it down, it will be him. Odds are this will be slugged out on the feet though. De Castro's best chance is to stay on the outside, attack the leg and attack it often. 

Still, the more naturally bigger and athletic guy will be at an advantage here, Tafa is hard to put out. Tafa by 1st round KO.

Maki Pitolo vs. Callan Potter

Maki Pitolo is not as much of a prospect as Jalin Turner is, but he is still a very functional, powerful MMA fighter, whereas Potter just does not seem to be all that good. I mean, obviously he has a way to win this fight by making it into a grappling fest, but it is hard to see him doing that without getting cracked first. Pitolo hits hard and at 35, it is unlikely Potter's chin is getting any better.

Maki Pitolo by 2nd round KO.

Megan Anderson vs. Zarah Fairn dos Santos

Megan Anderson struggles with girls who clinch her up, take her down and grapple with her. Could Dos Santos, who has employed more of a plodding kickboxing style, do that to Anderson? That is really the key question here, cause if they just strike on the outside, this is a very winnable fight for Anderson. She was arguably beating even Holly Holm on the feet, and it is fair to say Holm is a tad bit better than Dos Santos. I cant really rely on Dos Santos fighting completely different style than she usually fights, and maybe I am not wrong either to be hopeful to think Anderson could have gotten better in clinch in the meantime...

Megan Anderson by UD.

Brad Riddell vs. Jamie Mullarkey

Strong, athletic and powerful kickboxer vs. more well-rounded mixed martial artist. Again, Mullarkey should in theory have more ways to win, but actually not, since Riddell is very durable and has extremely high level striking - if they stand, this will be over fast. Mullarkey should then wrestle for his life. Riddell's takedown defence is really what will decice this fight, but I do believe it can stand this test.

Brad Riddell by 1st round KO.

Nadia Kassem vs. Ji Yeon Kim

Kassem is a young prospect who supposedly is a solid kickboxer, but we saw none of that in her UFC debut cause she just got clinched and taken down immediately in every round. I am sure she has shored up her takedown defence, but that probably will be the path of least resistance to victory for Kim. Kim is kinda borderline UFC-level fighter who is competent but not great anywhere. I feel she will have the grappling advantage and be able to take it there often enough to win this fight.

Ji Yeon Kim by UD.

Khalid Taha vs. Bruno Silva

Silva might be good, but his regional record is not that great, whereas Taha has shown himself to have all the basics right in the UFC and also carries lot of power.

Taha by 1st round KO.