UFC Fight Night 160 Post-Fight Analysis

Yea yea, this is really late. Sorry, my normal routine has been a little bit broken lately. Anyway, as I predicted, it was a tricky evening to predict and although I got over half right, I still ended up with my second losing night in bets since starting to write proper analysis of each fight. Let's get to dissecting fights.

Main Card

Normally when I write my predictions I don't read other people's previews before I have completely finished my own - that way I have to rely on completely my own perceptions and not be swayed one way or another by public opinion. However, I was wandering in Bloody Elbow couple of nights before the event and read someone's piece about it.

Needless to say it was very critical of Jared Cannonier. I swear I would have picked him had I not read that thing. As it happened, I ended up not trusting my own perceptions that Killa Gorilla's power and leg kicks would become too much of a problem for Hermansson and instead went for latter just styling the bigger guy. Well, turns out that if you expose your leg completely to guy who can kick hard enough to dislocate your knee, you better be damn sure to get that takedown every time he kicks.

That being said, the leg kick did not play such a huge part in the end, it was more just a matter of Cannonier being way too powerful for Hermansson. 

Co-Main was exactly as expected, Madsen looks good but his opponent is as close to a can as you get in UFC. Nothing competitive about that one.

Gilbert Burns could not really find his powershots nor really hurt Gunnar Nelson, but he nonetheless edged him out to a decision that could have gone either way after an even fight.

Khalil Roundtree and Ion Cutelaba had a wild fight and as I predicted, Cutelaba did not just stand in front of Khalil to take a Muay Thai lesson, but rather went for a wild, aggressive offense and completely swarmed Khalil. Sadly Khalil did not have much composure when the pace was really pushed, so it seemed the aggression tired him out fast before he got pretty badly KOd. Back to the drawing board, hope he really sorts out the defensive aspects of his game and remaining composed.

Michal Oleksiejczuk looked tiny compared to Ovince St. Preux, but he was still dominating the first round before he threw it all away by not recognizing the danger when Ovince went for his signature choke. Ovince won but looked terrible, Michal lost but looked great. All it takes is one mistake in MMA and a lot of good work goes to waste. Anyway, this is one where I would pick just the same again if given the chance, even if it went wrong.

I felt like Cowboy Oliveira was robbed of a win against Nicholas Dalby. Don't get me wrong, the guy was faded badly, but he got the lifeline takedown in 3rd round, was working on a great position before he got stood up without good reason and ultimately beaten. He put everything into that takedown but did not get to enjoy the fruits of his labor. Still, even if he stayed on top for rest of the round Dalby might have gotten a home decision anyway, so who knows. Close fight, but guess we can conclude Oliveira will always have these same limitations that he has shown lately and won't do anything to fix them.

Prelims

Alen Amedovski and John Phillips slugged it out, power versus durability. Well, guess in these things you have to go for durability. Both landed hard shots and rocked each other, but Amedovski went out when a couple more landed. Two extremely limited guys, but guess we will see Phillips again thanks to this.

Makhmud Muradov had a close fight with Di Chirico, but that one I called correctly, Muradov showed more even on a short notice and will be a fun, functional action fighter even if I don't really see him making a title run or anything like that.

Siyar Bahadurzada looked even more hapless and basic against Ismail Naurdiev than you would have expected. That fight was another that went exactly as expected with the younger, faster guy with more technical depth easily dominating.

Brandon Davis showed lacking fight IQ again and despite being active and having fun fights, you just feel the guy has already hit his ceiling. Getting KOd by the kickboxer was of course not surprising but Davis should have been able to make it uglier. He did not get cracked, but rather just ended up in the bottom and was just pounded to KO. Chikadze still has work to do, but if he can improve his takedown defence the division will have to keep their eye on him.

Macy Chiasson was the biggest disappointment of the night. I expected her to closely edge out Lina Lansberg everywhere, but instead she was kinda even everywhere and then just made those similar kind of mistakes as she has done before like accepting bottom position etc etc. In hindsight, I could have seen that Chiasson was at best unsure pick, not the nailed on favorite the odds seemed to suggest she is. 

The last two fights (or rather the first) I did not see, but apparently Diakiese picked Vannata apart instead of KOing him which is... well not that surprising, it was always going to be close. Something is up with Vannata, he is not old but has not really developed his game a lot in recent fights. Jack Shore was apparently very impressive completely dominating Nohelin Hernandez. Both of those picks went right for me.

My Picks

So all in all I got more than half the picks right - 7 out of 13. However, as I got the biggest bets wrong, I ended up on the losing end when it comes to money, but I am still overall winning since starting four events ago. All in all my record now 26.5 out of 46 fights right. Main and Co-Main events are 4 out of 7, roughly same percentage. 

It is already Thursday so I have MMA-filled couple of days ahead of me to get my next event's previews ready, but guess that is the way I prefer to do them anyway. See ya soon.