UFC Fight Night 161 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Joanna Jerdzejczyk vs. Michelle Waterson

This one should be pretty clear, if the Joanna of old shows up. She has only ever been beaten by powerful strikers like Rose and girls bigger than her like Valentina. Waterson is very technically clean and admittedly strong for her size, but she is still at a strength disadvantage here and has never really been the kind of hard shotting KO striker.

The only questionmark is where is Joanna mentally, was her cut terrible and how badly she has faded. Still, she has so much of that skill and experience to rely on that I believe even second-rate her can beat Waterson in a kickboxing match. Could Waterson then take her down and submit her or at least dominate the fight on the ground... well many have tried, but Joanna has one of the best takedown defenses in the division and generally has just feasted on people trying to wrestle her. Again, Waterson is a very technical grappler, but just does not possess the kind of raw strength to ragdoll Joanna.

So for me this is a clear one, Joanna by UD.

Co-Main Event: Cub Swanson vs. Kron Gracie

Swanson's four loss streak looks terrible on paper, but he has lost to good guys and his last loss was a razor thin decision loss. Definitely it is no a case of aging fighter being completely shot. In the stand-up Cub will obviously dominate this match, it is just question of can he keep Kron off of him and if not, can he survive those moments? I cannot say I honestly feel confident either way, since we have basically no data on Kron against this high level opposition.

Obviously his BJJ is amazing, but here his overall fighting ability will be put to the test. Anyway your guess is as good as mine, it is not like Cub has been ever really wrestlefucked to death, but then again he has mostly fought against willing strikers, one of which Kron for sure won't be in this one.

I hardly feel certain of this one, but I feel the more experienced, well-rounded fighter will teach a valuable lesson here to Kron by keeping it standing for the most part and surviving the rest of the time. Cub by UD.

Mike Davis vs. Thomas Gifford
Gifford has some pretty solid boxing and Davis is very hittable on the feet. However I doubt Gifford has the kind of power to put Davis out. Gifford ended up looking pretty bad in his first fight because his conditioning failed and his kicks were like slow-motion. If he has worked on those holes, there is a very capable fighter in there.

If he keeps it strictly boxing, he has a good chance here, but problem is Davis is much more the powerful striker of the two and also has a good chin to cover up for his poor defence. All in all I would say he is the better rounded fighter of the two, but Gifford has a way to win this thanks to his boxing skill as well as reach advantage. How much he improves over his debut will tell us a lot about his future as a fighter.

There is no odds as of now as the site I use still has the old opponent for Gifford listed, so I will see if I have chance to make the pick later.

EDIT NEXT DAY: So I picked Gifford, his odds were long enough to be worth small punt.

Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas
Two great grapplers going at it with very similar records. I suppose Dern will have to have the grappling advantage for all the world championships she has, but Ribas is very capable grappler too. Dern has actually been mostly standing in her UFC fights so far and shown herself to be very good striker as well, even if in just basic dig your heels to the floor and throw hard shots kind of way. She has power and can hurt you on the feet, but does not pursue the takedown very actively.

That is why it will be interesting to see how Ribas approaches this fight, since her approach has been very straightforward - strike to close the distance, clinch and work takedowns and then submit your opponent. Will she try to keep it standing with Dern, or belief that if she takes Dern down and gets on top she can stay there and win rounds without getting swept or submitted from the bottom? Or will she take a very different approach from her usual one and try to keep the fight standing?

If she does, I believe Dern will likely accommodate her, but thanks to Ribas natural style being so aggressive, I just cannot see this staying a stand-up battle, and on the ground Dern has a clear advantage. Guess Ribas could work up some kind of clinch gameplan to, just tie Dern up against the cage and chip away at her. All in all it is impossible not to see Dern as a favorite, but Ribas might be good enough to survive the grappling with her and come up with some sort of victory. Not one where I can feel very confident of my pick either way.

I say Dern by submission on round 3.

Luis Pena vs. Matt Frevola
Pena is similar to Frevola's last opponent in that he is tall and powerful striker. However, I do think Pena is worse at takedown defence than Jalin Turner is, and Frevola took him down repeatedly. That will be the order of the day in this match too, repeated takedowns. I believe Pena will be relatively easy to take down and too willing to play guard and try to go for submissions from the bottom. If he does not time Frevola's rush and KO him, it will probably be a bad night for him.

Frevola by UD.

Eryk Anders vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Well Anders probably won't pursue takedowns but rather play slow counter-striking game. Meerschaert is hittable and willing to take it to the ground by any means possible, always ending up in bad situations but still somehow often finding victories. He obviously will want to grapple in this one.

Anders is powerful, but not the technically best fighter nor the smartest one. I feel like Meerschaert is more likely to make it into his fight, especially if the fight goes deeper, but there is also a significant chance Anders will just KO him.

Anyway, Meerschaert by 2nd round submission.

James Vick vs. Niko Price
Two reckless, long strikers meet. Vick has very suspect chin and has never corrected the defensive issues he has, so it is unlikely this ends well for him. It is not like Price is defensively very good either, but he has lot of power and actually has identical reach to Vick. So especially when Price pressures and makes the fight wild, he will find the fast killshot to KO Vick. That being said I might just be overrating Price cause I love that wild fucker.

Price by 1st round KO.

Ryan Spann vs. Devin Clark
Spann looked great against Nogueira, but then again, it is 100 year old Nogueira so you cannot put too much weight on it. Spann has reach though and seems defensively the more solid fighter. Of course at 205 it just takes one shot to change the outcome and both of these fighters are relatively powerful.

Spann by 2nd round KO.

Max Griffin vs. Alex Morono
Griffin does not have great cardio, but he is a powerful fighter with good offensive wrestling as well. Morono is well-rounded and should he survive the initial onslaught, he can take this fight over. It will be a close fight.

Morono by Split Decision.

Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Tim Elliott
Figueiredo is probably the best striker at 125 at the moment and is very hard to take down and keep down. Elliott will be grappling for his life but I feel like Figueiredo can keep this up and just blast him away with his fast and powerful striking. He is also very long for the weight class.

Figueiredo by 1st round KO.

Hector Aldana vs. Miguel Baeza
Two pretty basic guys with decent power and offensive capabilities but suspect defences. Don't really feel there is a strong advantage to either of these. Maybe Aldana already having had UFC fight and higher output will be to his advantage, it also seems like he might have the slightly better chin, but aside that this is a coin toss.

Aldana by UD.

Marvin Vettori vs. Andrew Sanchez
Hard fight to predict. Guess Vettori has the advantage on the feet - after all he is young and reasonably athletic. Sanchez has pretty obvious grappling advantage, but both are reasonably well-rounded. Can Vettori keep this standing? I am inclined to think he will, and he has shown good striking defence and chin so far, so it is unlikely he gets KOd.

Sanchez is a bigger underdog than probably should, so worth a pick for 2nd round submission.

JJ Aldrich vs. Lauren Mueller
This could be brutal, as these women's low-level fights often are - and I don't mean brutal in the way of them going to war and blood spurting everywhere, I mean brutal in that it is relatively uneventful and boring watch. Aldrich seems very basic, at least Mueller has more depth to her game and looks like the better athlete.

Mueller by UD.

Marlon Vera vs. Andre Ewell
Classic grappler vs. striker contest. Ewell is so fast and long that he will be a problem to lot of guys in the division. Vera is a very crafty grappler. I dunno, I kinda feel like Ewell can keep this standing for at least two rounds and inflict a lot of damage to Vera, but at the same time, you would think Vera has been practicing shooting nonstop during the camp and comes to the fight with more potent takedown offense.

Even if not, Ewell does fade especially if the fight is high-paced, and he will have a long third round if Vera does manage to drag him on the floor.

Ewell by 2nd round KO.