UFC on ESPN 6 Preview & Predictions
I already wrote that I won't be doing these this weekend, but I ended up scrambling something together with a marathon UFC watching session at the last minute.
So what of Chris Weidman? Well I do think he is a great fighter that also has been criminally underrated. He has probably been winning a lot of the recent fights he had, until getting KOd late on. That is the problem. The running theme here has been that the chin tends to not come back, it tends to only deteriorate. Especially when the guy already is 35 and will be facing bigger opponents than he has ever faced. Yea, there won't be so much of a cut to compromise his ability to take a shot, but it is not like his KOs were flash shots in first round, more just final blows after absorbing a lot of damage or nuclear bombs like the knee Romero slept him with.
Weidman was completely, utterly dominating Jacare in his fight, looking very good and sharp before getting caught with a shot that just put him out. That makes this such a hard fight to predict. I don't think Reyes is such a big KO threat, but of course he is a big guy with some KOs on his record and should be able to feast on a smaller man - but at the same time, Weidman actually has the range on him despite being the one coming up weight. I also do think Weidman is much more capable of keeping the fight very high-paced, and has more weapons in his disposal, as Reyes does not usually wrestle too much.
It would actually be very smart of Weidman to fight similarly to Covington's last fight - high volumes of punches and pressure, closing the distance and clinching up against the cage. It is not that he absolutely cannot win a range kickboxing match, but it is just that he is much more likely to get cracked with something in that.
Both definitely have clear paths to victory here and although Weidman's recent 4 KOs look ugly, the guy has only ever lost by KO, that is something to think about. The manner of those KOs does not suggest that he is completely shot, but it is enough to make him an unreliable pick at best.
I actually lean on Weidman teaching the less experienced fighter a thing or two and coming out with a close UD.
"Both guys in the main event have got themselves a similar style match-up to their previous fight. Yair of course last fought against Korean Zombie almost a year ago now in Denver, getting that crazy last second elbow KO after a closely fought war. Stephens on the other hand fought another rangy, flashy guy inAbraham Lincoln Zabit Magomedsharipov and looked competitive but ultimately was second best.
So with the match-ups being similar and one being a winner, one being a loser, this ought to be a clear cut pick for Yair, no? Well, yea. Yair is a young guy who has been off for a while now, and I presume that in such a long absence, he would show up improved, whereas Jeremy Stephens is who he is and probably already past his prime. Not shot by any means, but he ain't gonna suddenly look great again.
Well, he might just KO Yair fast and that would constitute looking great I suppose - Stephens always has it in him to put people out if he can just get his hands on them. The stalking style Stephens uses will be favorable in the elevation, but Yair showed he can keep up a decent pace in elevation in his last fight. Should that be the case, Stephens will struggle to get the distance and be pieced up from the outside.
It is a close fight and I expect Stephens to have great moments. Still, it is unlikely he gets the win if he does not get a KO. The home crowd is sure to sway the judges if it is a close fight going to a decision."
Main Event: Dominick Reyes vs. Chris Weidman
So for research I watched the latest Oezdemir fight from Reyes. He got something of a controversial decision to keep his unbeaten record, but watching that fight I was not nearly as sure as the commentators that Oezdemir was winning it. He seemed to land with a lot power, but Reyes was blocking a lot of it. In the end it was an extremely close fight that shows us pretty accurately where Reyes is at the moment - not quite elite, but one of the better fighters of the division.So what of Chris Weidman? Well I do think he is a great fighter that also has been criminally underrated. He has probably been winning a lot of the recent fights he had, until getting KOd late on. That is the problem. The running theme here has been that the chin tends to not come back, it tends to only deteriorate. Especially when the guy already is 35 and will be facing bigger opponents than he has ever faced. Yea, there won't be so much of a cut to compromise his ability to take a shot, but it is not like his KOs were flash shots in first round, more just final blows after absorbing a lot of damage or nuclear bombs like the knee Romero slept him with.
Weidman was completely, utterly dominating Jacare in his fight, looking very good and sharp before getting caught with a shot that just put him out. That makes this such a hard fight to predict. I don't think Reyes is such a big KO threat, but of course he is a big guy with some KOs on his record and should be able to feast on a smaller man - but at the same time, Weidman actually has the range on him despite being the one coming up weight. I also do think Weidman is much more capable of keeping the fight very high-paced, and has more weapons in his disposal, as Reyes does not usually wrestle too much.
It would actually be very smart of Weidman to fight similarly to Covington's last fight - high volumes of punches and pressure, closing the distance and clinching up against the cage. It is not that he absolutely cannot win a range kickboxing match, but it is just that he is much more likely to get cracked with something in that.
Both definitely have clear paths to victory here and although Weidman's recent 4 KOs look ugly, the guy has only ever lost by KO, that is something to think about. The manner of those KOs does not suggest that he is completely shot, but it is enough to make him an unreliable pick at best.
I actually lean on Weidman teaching the less experienced fighter a thing or two and coming out with a close UD.
Co-Main Event: Yair Rodriquez vs. Jeremy Stephens
I already wrote this one, sentiments are still the same. Quoting my previous preview:"Both guys in the main event have got themselves a similar style match-up to their previous fight. Yair of course last fought against Korean Zombie almost a year ago now in Denver, getting that crazy last second elbow KO after a closely fought war. Stephens on the other hand fought another rangy, flashy guy in
So with the match-ups being similar and one being a winner, one being a loser, this ought to be a clear cut pick for Yair, no? Well, yea. Yair is a young guy who has been off for a while now, and I presume that in such a long absence, he would show up improved, whereas Jeremy Stephens is who he is and probably already past his prime. Not shot by any means, but he ain't gonna suddenly look great again.
Well, he might just KO Yair fast and that would constitute looking great I suppose - Stephens always has it in him to put people out if he can just get his hands on them. The stalking style Stephens uses will be favorable in the elevation, but Yair showed he can keep up a decent pace in elevation in his last fight. Should that be the case, Stephens will struggle to get the distance and be pieced up from the outside.
It is a close fight and I expect Stephens to have great moments. Still, it is unlikely he gets the win if he does not get a KO. The home crowd is sure to sway the judges if it is a close fight going to a decision."
Only difference here is that fight is no longer in Mexico, but fight being shorter will work to his favor as Stephens has less time to wear him down. So Yair by UD again.
Greg Hardy vs. Ben Sosoli
It is hard to say much about Hardy except that he obviously is very powerful and athletically talented. Guy built for that much power though obviously cannot be exactly a cardio machine so for most people fighting him the game plan will have to be to survive first round and take him to the deep waters. His fights have been short so far, but he definitely started gassing out in his disqualification loss against Crowder.
Sosoli looks pretty normal, competent regional heavyweight. Fat guy with powerful hands and a hard chin. Probably will have cardio advantage if fight goes deep, but not by much. Eventually Hardy will get caught I suppose, but the athleticism difference here should be so big that this is another gimme. Greg Hardy by 1st round KO.
Joe Lauzon vs. Jonathan Pearce
It is hard to imagine Lauzon coming still back to fight after how terrible he looked in his last fight. His opponent was essentially competent regional level guy but Lauzon still got massacred. It was also different form usual decline we see from fighters where they no longer can take a shot - Lauzon can still take a million shots, he is just faded very badly.
Pierce is competent fighter with good power, honestly don't see him having any problems with spent Lauzon. These odds are great too, gonna be my big bet for the night.
Maycee Barber vs. Gillian Robertson
So Barber is powerful, but defensively very suspect unbeaten prospect. Young fighters like this do tend to improve fast, but I don't see her fixing her dodgy defence this fast so it might be a factor in this match-up.
Robertson has shown herself to be solid competitor in all aspects and especially outgrappled a grappler in her last fight. I expect that is what she will try to do here. I don't think she is completely outgunned on the feet, but it is safer for her to just take it to the ground and stay on top of Barber for three rounds than slug it out.
So the key point here will be Barber's takedown defence. I don't feel really confident either way, but I do think Robertson will have the edge on the ground, and I am gonna believe she will take it there often enough to eek out a win. Robertson by UD.
Deron Winn vs. Darren Stewart
So Winn did not make the weight despite his 5'6'' frame. Regardless, he is a very good fighter in all aspects as you would expect from a guy this short making it this far in the heavier divisions of UFC. Winn comes from a solid wrestling background and comes at you with heavy powerpunching game. For a short guy, he has a decent reach too and is good at closing the distance. For lot of these power guys, cardio is an issue, but in his debut Winn showed that he can keep the volume up all through the match even after taking damage.
Darren Stewart is a very good fighter with couple of key holes - pace and wrestling. The two things that Winn is good at. Stewart will be easily the better outside striker, but he will have to get Winn out of there fast before him walking forward and winging shots wears Stewart out. He definitely has the capability to do that, but Winn can catch him just as well and put him out. So in the first it will be close to 50/50, but the longer this goes the more I see Stewart drowning into Winn's pace.
Deron Winn by 2nd round KO.
Charles Rosa vs. Manny Bermudez
So Rosa has fought twice in last 3.5 years, last fight in 2017 where he got TKO'd by Shane Burgos, but to be fair it had been a good performance up to that point from him. His record isn't too bad, but he is still bit of a questionmark because of his long layoffs. Manny Bermudez on the otherhand is very much a known quantity - hard hitting grappler with some offensive wrestling, unlike lot of the BJJ guys we have been seeing lately.
On paper its a pretty close match-up. Rosa should be tightly edging the stand-up, but also have the defensive wrestling and grappling to survive with Bermudez when they close the distance. The problem just is the fact we don't really know how he turns out after so long out. Bermudez on the other hand was very sloppy in his last fight that ended up costing him the decision.
You'd think Rosa has the tools to stop Bermudez, but it s a pick I cannot feel fully confident with. However, Rosa by UD.
Molly McCann vs. Diana Belbita
Weird match-up. McCann might be ill-suited for fighting with her reach that will leave her at a disadvantage against pretty much everyone she faces, but she has power, aggression, and good skills everywhere with no major gaping holes. Belbita on the other hand has a very messy win against MMA debutant as her last fight. On her current 4-fight winning streak, her opponents have combined 4 wins.
Not exactly convincing resume, but even more evident is the skill gap when you just look at her fighting. I mean sure, she is strong and aggressive girl with good chin, but she is also very easy to take down and defensively extremely sloppy. I expect McCann to make this a brutal beatdown, these girls should have no business being in cage together. Belbita does have youth on her side, but she won't make up that sort of skill gap even with that. So despite the wide odds, McCann is my other big bet for the night.
McCann by 2nd round KO.
Kyle Bochniak vs. Sean Woodson
Winnable match-up for Bochniak, both decent stand-up fighters for the most part, evenly matched, but Bochniak ought to be the more relaxed man as Woodson is making his UFC debut in only his 7th fight. Neither has a lot of power so this one is likely to gonna go to a close decision.
Bochniak by UD.
Randy Costa vs. Boston Salmon
So Boston Salmon fought against powerful Khalid Taha in his first fight and got sent to the shadow realm. I largely expect same thing to happen here against another very powerful striker in Costa, who seemed to be dominating in his UFC debut but just wilted and lost it.
Randy Costa via 1st round KO.
Court McGee vs. Sean Brady
McGee is a wily but shopworn veteran, whereas Brady is small but unbeaten welterweight prospect. There is not a lot of info on Brady. He fights slow pace, does not carry too much power but has alright wrestling. I would imagine this actually is very close match-up in all fronts. Obviously Brady is favorite partly in his unbeaten status and also because McGee is getting up there in age.
Still McGee went to split decision just 6 months ago with Dhiego Lima so it is not like he is completely shot. But guess just falling a step everywhere accumulates into a seemingly big disadvantage.
I still gotta go with youth here. Brady by SD.
Brendan Allen vs. Kevin Holland
Tough debut for LFA champ Brendan Allen. The guy is very young and looks to have everything to make it big in the UFC over the years, but Holland is no slouch to get started with. Holland is well-rounded, but somewhat easy to get taken down. He is good at surviving on the ground or even threatening, but at the same time, he might just end up controlled for decision here.
Brendan Allen via UD.
Daniel Spitz vs. Tanner Boser
Spitz is a lanky striker with poor takedown defence, Boser is a newcomer with already lot of experience out of UFC but seems very ABC striker, not something that would really threaten Spitz.
Spitz was the favorite ealier but odds have shifted completely around, think Spitz might be able to keep this guy off him and tee off from the range for an UD.
Greg Hardy vs. Ben Sosoli
It is hard to say much about Hardy except that he obviously is very powerful and athletically talented. Guy built for that much power though obviously cannot be exactly a cardio machine so for most people fighting him the game plan will have to be to survive first round and take him to the deep waters. His fights have been short so far, but he definitely started gassing out in his disqualification loss against Crowder.
Sosoli looks pretty normal, competent regional heavyweight. Fat guy with powerful hands and a hard chin. Probably will have cardio advantage if fight goes deep, but not by much. Eventually Hardy will get caught I suppose, but the athleticism difference here should be so big that this is another gimme. Greg Hardy by 1st round KO.
Joe Lauzon vs. Jonathan Pearce
It is hard to imagine Lauzon coming still back to fight after how terrible he looked in his last fight. His opponent was essentially competent regional level guy but Lauzon still got massacred. It was also different form usual decline we see from fighters where they no longer can take a shot - Lauzon can still take a million shots, he is just faded very badly.
Pierce is competent fighter with good power, honestly don't see him having any problems with spent Lauzon. These odds are great too, gonna be my big bet for the night.
Maycee Barber vs. Gillian Robertson
So Barber is powerful, but defensively very suspect unbeaten prospect. Young fighters like this do tend to improve fast, but I don't see her fixing her dodgy defence this fast so it might be a factor in this match-up.
Robertson has shown herself to be solid competitor in all aspects and especially outgrappled a grappler in her last fight. I expect that is what she will try to do here. I don't think she is completely outgunned on the feet, but it is safer for her to just take it to the ground and stay on top of Barber for three rounds than slug it out.
So the key point here will be Barber's takedown defence. I don't feel really confident either way, but I do think Robertson will have the edge on the ground, and I am gonna believe she will take it there often enough to eek out a win. Robertson by UD.
Deron Winn vs. Darren Stewart
So Winn did not make the weight despite his 5'6'' frame. Regardless, he is a very good fighter in all aspects as you would expect from a guy this short making it this far in the heavier divisions of UFC. Winn comes from a solid wrestling background and comes at you with heavy powerpunching game. For a short guy, he has a decent reach too and is good at closing the distance. For lot of these power guys, cardio is an issue, but in his debut Winn showed that he can keep the volume up all through the match even after taking damage.
Darren Stewart is a very good fighter with couple of key holes - pace and wrestling. The two things that Winn is good at. Stewart will be easily the better outside striker, but he will have to get Winn out of there fast before him walking forward and winging shots wears Stewart out. He definitely has the capability to do that, but Winn can catch him just as well and put him out. So in the first it will be close to 50/50, but the longer this goes the more I see Stewart drowning into Winn's pace.
Deron Winn by 2nd round KO.
Charles Rosa vs. Manny Bermudez
So Rosa has fought twice in last 3.5 years, last fight in 2017 where he got TKO'd by Shane Burgos, but to be fair it had been a good performance up to that point from him. His record isn't too bad, but he is still bit of a questionmark because of his long layoffs. Manny Bermudez on the otherhand is very much a known quantity - hard hitting grappler with some offensive wrestling, unlike lot of the BJJ guys we have been seeing lately.
On paper its a pretty close match-up. Rosa should be tightly edging the stand-up, but also have the defensive wrestling and grappling to survive with Bermudez when they close the distance. The problem just is the fact we don't really know how he turns out after so long out. Bermudez on the other hand was very sloppy in his last fight that ended up costing him the decision.
You'd think Rosa has the tools to stop Bermudez, but it s a pick I cannot feel fully confident with. However, Rosa by UD.
Molly McCann vs. Diana Belbita
Weird match-up. McCann might be ill-suited for fighting with her reach that will leave her at a disadvantage against pretty much everyone she faces, but she has power, aggression, and good skills everywhere with no major gaping holes. Belbita on the other hand has a very messy win against MMA debutant as her last fight. On her current 4-fight winning streak, her opponents have combined 4 wins.
Not exactly convincing resume, but even more evident is the skill gap when you just look at her fighting. I mean sure, she is strong and aggressive girl with good chin, but she is also very easy to take down and defensively extremely sloppy. I expect McCann to make this a brutal beatdown, these girls should have no business being in cage together. Belbita does have youth on her side, but she won't make up that sort of skill gap even with that. So despite the wide odds, McCann is my other big bet for the night.
McCann by 2nd round KO.
Kyle Bochniak vs. Sean Woodson
Winnable match-up for Bochniak, both decent stand-up fighters for the most part, evenly matched, but Bochniak ought to be the more relaxed man as Woodson is making his UFC debut in only his 7th fight. Neither has a lot of power so this one is likely to gonna go to a close decision.
Bochniak by UD.
Randy Costa vs. Boston Salmon
So Boston Salmon fought against powerful Khalid Taha in his first fight and got sent to the shadow realm. I largely expect same thing to happen here against another very powerful striker in Costa, who seemed to be dominating in his UFC debut but just wilted and lost it.
Randy Costa via 1st round KO.
Court McGee vs. Sean Brady
McGee is a wily but shopworn veteran, whereas Brady is small but unbeaten welterweight prospect. There is not a lot of info on Brady. He fights slow pace, does not carry too much power but has alright wrestling. I would imagine this actually is very close match-up in all fronts. Obviously Brady is favorite partly in his unbeaten status and also because McGee is getting up there in age.
Still McGee went to split decision just 6 months ago with Dhiego Lima so it is not like he is completely shot. But guess just falling a step everywhere accumulates into a seemingly big disadvantage.
I still gotta go with youth here. Brady by SD.
Brendan Allen vs. Kevin Holland
Tough debut for LFA champ Brendan Allen. The guy is very young and looks to have everything to make it big in the UFC over the years, but Holland is no slouch to get started with. Holland is well-rounded, but somewhat easy to get taken down. He is good at surviving on the ground or even threatening, but at the same time, he might just end up controlled for decision here.
Brendan Allen via UD.
Daniel Spitz vs. Tanner Boser
Spitz is a lanky striker with poor takedown defence, Boser is a newcomer with already lot of experience out of UFC but seems very ABC striker, not something that would really threaten Spitz.
Spitz was the favorite ealier but odds have shifted completely around, think Spitz might be able to keep this guy off him and tee off from the range for an UD.
Kommentit
Lähetä kommentti