UFC 244 Post-Fight Analysis

We got a great night of fights in New York. Lot of finishes, lot of absolute wars. I expected to get quite a lot of picks right but ended up with exactly half right, since I picked wrong underdogs most of the time.

Main Card

I predicted Street Jesus to win a close decision and he got the first three rounds like I expected. The question was how much could he compromise Nate in the process. The doctor ended up stepping in, but from what I saw, even slowing down Masvidal would have kept winning the rounds and the decision would not have changed.

I guess I would love a rematch, but I also feel like from fight analysis standpoint it would be pointless, since it would be more of the same and I don't think the outcome would change, since Masvidal does not gas that much. Nate might have picked up the last two rounds on volume but think it would have been very unlikely he finds a finish. 

I thought the Co-Main was a decent match, but it just goes to show how entertaining the card was that most people found it to be a boring fight. Till looks great a middleweight, still strong and big but also has gas tank. Being KOd also has made him into a more intelligent fighter. Definitely back to being a top prospect on basis of this performance. Gastelum was disappointing in failing to deal with Till's range.

Wonderboy put on a spectacular showing against Luque who did not stop throwing back at him. Thompson got hit with a few hard shots and it is obvious that his chin is something that will be tested with a solid connection, but he showed he is still extremely hard to get with those hard shots and will eventually just start to pile up the damage with his sharp counters.

Derrick Lewis' newfound cardio lasted him until the decision for him to win in a close match against Blagoy. Blagoy is durable as fuck, but failed to really employ the kind of style that would have worn out Lewis and he was caught with enough hard shots to warrant the decision loss. 

The card opened up with Kevin Lee pulverizing Gillespie. Gillespie never really got the wrestling going, being too content to stand up with Lee who came out (arguably smartly) with a low stance to make the takedown harder. Lee again looks like the kind of guy with potential to dismantle Khabib, but we did not really find out anything new if he has sorted out his cardio issues.

Prelims

The featured prelim ended somewhat unexpectedly. But at the same time, I feel it was the kind of outcome that I really should have thought possible. Fact is, Johnny Walker is fundamentally unsound. He is an entertaining fighter, long and crazy powerful, but fundamentally unsound. He also does not seem to have the kind of chin to warrant that.

Then again this also is light heavyweight so anyone who gets caught, is liable to get KO'd, good chin or not. Walker did not really put Anderson's striking defence into the test either, just feinting as long as the fight lasted. I still think talk of Anderson fighting Jones next is just crazy talk. Perhaps Reyes v Anderson next?

Amirkhani looked great... for one round. However, he was clearly not conditioned for the game plan he employed, since he completely gassed out and got finished in the end. Burgos might be somewhat susceptible to losing against grapplers, but he has great gas tank and is dangerous in stand-up against anyone.

Edmund's boy Edmen is the real deal. I expected him to win, but not in such dominant fashion. He carries crazy power and puts people to sleep. Part of me wants him to be slowplayed up the rankings, but part of me also wants to throw him in there in the title picture to have him become youngest champ ever.

Imagine how crazy it would be that Edmund would have been coach to the first female UFC champ and the youngest UFC male champ as well? 

Jairzinho finished Arlovski fast. It kinda seemed inevitable afterwards, but I think Arlovski could have made it closer by more urgently pursuing the grappling. It is what it is. Jairzinho is a problem for a lot of guys in this division.

Guess I under-estimated Chookagian, whose reach and volume made it very comfortable win against Maia. Still, I don't give her much of a chance against Valentina.

Lyman Good beat Rencountre just in the manner I expected, Chance did not really get his wrestling going and was always gonna be in trouble in stand-up.

Julio Arce and Hakeem Dawodu had a closer match than I expected. Could have gone either way, in the end Dawodu got the nod.

My picks

I got exactly half of the picks right, 6 out of 12. The main event saved me to tiny profit, basically breaking even. 

My best pick was Masvidal, but Wonderboy also was a good one. However my confidence in Johnny Walker was ill-advised at best.

Record now after nine events is 61.5 out of 107, in Main and Co-Main events I am 10 out of 16. 6 winning nights and 3 losing nights.