UFC 244 Previews & Predictions

Main Event: Jorge Masvidal vs. Nate Diaz

So the famed BMF belt. Honestly this one is pretty tough to call. Jorge is the more powerful guy, both are great boxers, Jorge better at range but Nate has improved that aspect of his game as well. Obviously if the fight goes long, it will be to Nate's advantage, but at the same time, it is not like Jorge has bad conditioning either. He might slow down but not completely fade. Both will be aggressive and willing to stand and bang.

Nate gets hit a lot though. That is a bit of a problem and that is really something that makes me kinda lean towards Jorge. Jorge survived also with Maia on the ground so I am pretty sure he can handle Diaz too, so submission loss for him is not likely. 

I guess it is a question of how much damage can Masvidal do in those first two rounds where he is the freshest. Can he do enough to compromise Nate severely, since we have to presume that he won't be KOing him? If he can damage his leg, bloody him etc, he might be able to edge one of the later rounds too to offset the cardio advantage Nate has. Kinda like how Dustin beat Max. 

Very close fight nonetheless, but when both are so techically excellent, I gotta go with the bigger, more defensively sound one. Nate tends to just block shots with his face. 

Street Jesus via 48-47 UD.

Co-Main Event: Darren Till vs. Kelvin Gastelum

Till matchup is not too dissimilar to fighting Adesanya - both rangy kickboxers. The key difference is Till hits much harder, but also gasses much harder. There are questions about Kelvin's conditioning following the whole weigh-in fiasco, but he is still better built for endurance and the technically better fighter. He might get knocked out, there is a big chance for that with someone as strong as Till, but it is more likely he just outslicks Till to give him another loss.

Gastelum via UD.

Stephen Thompson vs. Vicente Luque

If Luque can get close, he probably has the better hands. He is not bad at range either, but there is still no one better in the division than Thompson at it, and he is excellent at keeping it at that range. 

Thompson took a hard KO loss last time around and that is something to cast doubts over him. The thing is, that superman punch Pettis landed on him to flatline him was pretty much only solid shot in the match that connected to Thompson's face, pretty much aside that he was outpointing him.

Thompson being at advancing age already there is always a chance of that happening again, but aside that there is no reason to think he has significantly faded yet. So you have to think he will most likely just outpoint Luque, or if Luque gets overzealous, KO him with his excellent counter game. 

Thompson via UD.

Derrick Lewis vs. Blagoy Ivanov

So Derrick is in best shape of his life, supposedly. Thing is, his only chance of winning is through KO... and Blagoy has never been KOd, only lost twice in his career. Still, he does not exactly strike you as very well polished fighter. He is definitely very hittable, but he will likely make this into as ugly fight as possible, trying to clinch up Lewis to slow him down. As we saw against Volkov, Lewis is dangerous until the end even at extremely gassed state.

So this is a really hard fight to pick. On one hand, Lewis is limited against champ-caliber talent, but Blagoy is a little short of that. On the other hand, you really don't wanna go against guy who is 18-2 and has never been KOd.

My brain says Blagoy, but heart says Derrick. Lewis via headkick KO 2nd round.

Kevin Lee vs. Gregor Gillespie

Kevin Lee has all the tools to be one of the best fighters, but he lacks one key ingredient - cardio. I even thought just some time ago he would be the one to challenge Khabib, but then the whole Al Iaquinta match happened, and then RDA grinded him out too. Now it is just hard to believe in him, even though he is very dangerous early on in any fight.

Now he faces kind of a Khabib-lite, another aggressive chain-wrestler in Gregor Gillespie... and I don't think he can deal with it. Gillespie will just wear Lee out. Of course Lee has a chance to catch him with either a submission or a hard shot since the guy is aggressive to a fault, but the longer the fight goes, the slimmer that chance becomes.

Gillespie via UD.

Corey Anderson vs. Johnny Walker

Anderson is pretty high up the rankings, but pretty bland fighter. Okay, so supposedly he is pretty good wrestler. He might pose some problems for Walker I guess. Thing is, even shorty Latifi managed to hit Anderson with some hard shots. Walker has massive reach compared to that, and is crazy explosive. Anderson might go large patches of the fight winning positionally, but I cannot see him not getting caught with something really hard and be put out. 

Nonetheless it will be a good test for Johnny Walker to see how he deals with a guy who will wrestle him a lot. 

Johnny Walker via 1st round backflip KO.

Shane Burgos vs. Makwan Amirkhani

Big, big step-up in competition for Amirkhani. Stylistically it is a winnable match-up for him. Both have decent boxing, but there is no reason to think Burgos would not have a clear advantage in that. I do think though that Amirkhani can hit the takedowns to put Burgos in trouble. But it is not like you can bank on that either - Burgos has had reasonable wrestling defence so far in his career.

So I suppose most likely outcome is a close striking match where Burgos comes out on top, but I gotta trust Mr. Finland enough here to have decent chance to pull off the upset by stealing close rounds with takedowns.

Mr. Finland via SD.

Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Brad Tavares

This will be a close one. Edmen is unbeaten, powerful prospect with great grappling base. Seriously the guy looks inevitably someone who will be one of top-3 middleweights very soon. Especially since he is trained by the master himself, coach Edmund. I gotta say when it comes to Edmund, I agree with Firas Zahabi. He IS a good coach. I don't know what happened with Ronda's disasterous boxing, but I think that had more to do with fame getting in to Ronda's head and Edmund being bad bullshitter, rather than Edmund not being a competent coach. 

Regardless seeing him come up with another top-level fighter does vindicate him a little bit. Brad Tavares is a very good test for Edmen, UFC veteran that is hard to put out and does well in every aspect of the game.

Still, I do feel Tavares is slightly outgunned here in every department. He will have to use his experience to his advantage to get the win here, perhaps land something hard or successfully wrestlefuck Edmen for a round to shake the youngster's confidence a bit. Otherwise Edmen can either outstrike him, KO him or just grapple him to death. As well-rounded Tavares is, he finds himself at a disadvantage on every range here.

Edmen via UD.

Andrei Arlovski vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

So old Arloski is gonna fight against a big, powerful kickboxer? Well he ded for sure, right?

The thing is... Arlovski has been KOd 10 times in his career, but when you look at the guys who KOd him, they were largely among the GOATs of the HW division. More importantly, Arloski has gone to a decision now 8 times in a row. 8 times in a row! In heavyweight division! Against lot of powerful guys too...

So yea, there is a chance Jairzinho just pulverizes Arlovskis chin, but fact is Arlovski is pretty good at avoiding that stuff. He definitely has the grappling advantage here and can put a much higher pace, so he has real ways of winning it. Hopefully he does not just stand and bang with Jairzinho, that sounds like a bad time.

Arlovski via UD.

Katlyn Chookagian vs. Jennifer Maia

Basically this is the #1 contender fight, yet it is very hard to feel any excitement for this... or anything at all really. Both are solid at all aspects of the game, but nothing that great, and neither will pose any trouble to Valentina should they get to challenge her. There is such a talent chasm between champ and the rest in 125 that I would much rather see high level strawweights moving up to challenge Valentina than either of these.

But I digress, I have a fight to preview here. I don't feel either of these chicks has strong advantage on any range. Well, Chookagian is suspectible to kicks, so Maia would be smart to go to town on her leg. Meh. Don't feel strongly about this one. Probably gonna be a plodding kickboxing match that goes to a decision, in which case I feel Maia has more power and probably slightly edges it out. 

Jennifer Maia via SD.

Lyman Good vs. Chance Rencountre

Rencountre put in an excellent performance against Naurdiev, but for some reason I feel like I can't trust him. He is durable, and reasonably good offensive wrestler. He will have to blanked Good here to have any chance, but Good is aggressive, powerful guy. You gotta feel that especially early on, he is very likely to catch Rencountre with something, and he has to have done a lot of work on his defensive wrestling especially after the hapless performance against Maia.

Lyman Good via 1st round KO.

Julio Arce vs. Hakeem Dawodu

Close fight, but think Dawodu slightly edges this on the feet, and packs much more power. Arce marks up very easily, he has been getting cut a lot in his fights, so if Dawodu lands anything solid he will end up bloodied up. Arce could land some opportunistic takedowns, maybe... or just outpoint him some rounds on the stand-up, but he is unlikely to have the kind of power to put Dawodu out. 

Hakeem Dawodu via 2nd round KO.