UFC Fight Night 163 Post-Fight Analysis

Entertaining event from Russia, some surprises, but in the main card fights went largely as expected.

Main Card

The only surprise about the main event was that Zabit wanted to stand in the boxing range and largely had Kattar outmatched even there. Zabit landed the better and more shots, only thing Kattar had advantage in the end was that his shots had more power behind them. Predictably, Zabit faded quite a bit and just spent 3rd round on his bike. I have no reason to believe he beats either Max or Volkanovski with a gas tank like this, but he would absolutely piece them up for couple of rounds and it would be a delight to see regardless.

In the co-main event, Volkov predictably outpointed Hardy to a convincing decision. Volkov looked just as good as was expected, his chin held up the few times Hardy touched it, and obviously Hardy could not keep up with the volume. Despite this, Hardy positively surprised. He was injured during the fight, and although he could not keep up with Volkov, he still had very good output overall and did not badly gas. I don't know what he could have done in just three weeks to improve his gas tank so much, but he certainly looked much more like a guy with potential in this sport despite being thoroughly outclassed by the more experienced guy.

Danny Roberts and Zelim Imadaev were having very even, back-and-forth clash until Roberts absolutely flatlined him with a powerful counter. Their boxing turned out to be very even and Roberts managed to hit a few takedowns too, though in the end the grappling and clinch ended up pretty even too. 

Ibragimov v Herman went also almost exactly like the prediction. Ibragimov seemed to try to pace himself a bit, but he really could not help himself to empty the gas tank. Herman's chin held up and in the end they slugged it out to a clear Herman decision victory. Ibragimov can take heart for toughing it out to a decision after badly gassing and probably breaking his nose, but at this level you can't just be tough, you have to have some brain in the fighting too. UFC is likely to let him back loose to regionals to gather more experience.

Rocco Martin and Ramazan Emeev went to a razor thin decision. Rocco pieced up Emeev's calf, Emeev lit up Rocco's face with the jab, and overall their volume was very even. Grappling was largely a non-factor. Perhaps deserved win for Rocco overall though.

Prelims

Gamzatov got the only bad decision of the card against Klidson Abreu, but even about that you cannot whine that much - it was a very close fight, but it did seem like Klidson landed more for couple of rounds even if Gamzatov started to get more comfortable in the final round. All in all the judging was very fair, you would have expected a Russian bias, but foreign fighters got all the close decisions they were supposed to get aside for this one.

Ankalaev dominated Lungiambula as was expected, my try for 1st round KO pick for the loser was not too bad though, as he managed to crack Ankalaev in the first round and had him momentarily wobbled. In the end, Ankalaev was much better everywhere and finished the fight with a vicious KO.

Sergey Khandozhko had no answer to Rustam Khabilov's wrestling and predictably lost a clear decision.

Karl Robertson and Roman Kopylov engaged in a fun kickboxing bout, but Robertson showed his class, destroyed Kopylov's leg and was gonna win a clear decision even after getting badly eyepoked, but showed some toughness and got a finish at the end.

For Khabib's cousin, everything seemed to start right. He landed a solid jab on Zawada, then took him down with very little resistance. Then it all went wrong when he got caught in a tight armbar. These things happen in MMA, does not mean he is any worse fighter than Zawada, today just was not his day.

Jessica-Rose Clark v Pannie Kianzad was my worst prediction, I completely misassessed the fighters. Kianzad had much the better boxing and easily ran away with the decision. Clark looked undersized.

Yakovlev and Roosevelt Roberts had a very back and forth fight, but in the end Roberts' better footwork and volume in stand-up paid dividents for him to win a close decision.

Popov put out really low-volume striking performance so it was no wonder he clearly lost a decision against Grant who managed to put together some grappling offense on top of just being more active. Popov does not seem to cut it at this level, which is a shame cause he looked like he could have been a fun Muay Thai stylist.

My picks

8 out of 13 right, both main events correct as well, and a winning night. The night started terribly with me getting only one in first four right, but the main card turned everything around for me. I need to improve my choices for bigger bets, it seems like whenever I feel more confident on the fighters, I tend to end up picking wrong. Strange but true. 

Record now after nine events is 69.5 out of 120, in Main and Co-Main events I am 12 out of 18. 7 winning nights and 3 losing nights.