UFC Fight Night 164 Post-Fight Analysis
Another UFC Fight Night wrapped up. Despite the fact that I had to rush my predictions at the last minute, I still got a very good rate right, proving sometimes analyzing too much is not useful. Anyway, we will wrap up the numbers in the end, let's talk about the fights.
Speaking of legit decisions, the Craig deserved at least a draw against Shogun and got it. Can't really argue with it, first round clear 10-8, then couple of 10-9s to Shogun. Craig put a beating on Shogun in the first, whereas Shogun just controlled him in the latter rounds. Honestly it is time for Shogun to hang them up, although Craig has been improving steadily, he isn't the kind of guy Shogun should have any trouble with.
Charles Oliveira was just as dominant as expected. Please match him up with a top guy next. There is no point in feeding him cans to extend his finishing streak. He is one of the best fighters in the division. Okay, maybe Gordon was not a can but he definitely was nowhere near good enough to share the cage with Oliveira.
Andre Muniz put Antonio Arroyo in trouble through a lot of grappling just as was expected. Arroyo just does not have the kid of takedown defence to really let his strong kicking game shine, and Muniz looks like someone who can actually do something in this middleweight division.
Wellington Thurman ended up being much better than Markus Perez, primarily through his superior wrestling, strength and conditioning. He is still rough around the edges, often losing chances to finish fights and losing dominant positions, but he definitely has a lot of potential given how young he is. Definitely a good win for him and a big step back for Perez.
Ricardo Ramos made quick work of Garagorri, who looks like the peripheral regional level talent you would expect UFC to have to fill the ranks with smaller MMA countries like Uruguay. Ramos looks legit great, good footwork and lethal jitz.
Trinaldo and Bobby Green put on a boring fight. Although Trinaldo got the win, you gotta wonder how much patience UFC will have on a 41-year-old putting back to back boring fights. Green's surprise at the decision amuses me, it was a close fight but Trinaldo won it legitly, but even if he genuinely felt he might have a chance at the decision, is he really expecting to win these razor-thin decisions in Brazil? Honestly, it was a poor performance from Green, lacking any urgency to go for the win, instead of hoping just to squeak by. This guy is 41, you have to be putting stronger performance than that while still in your prime against a 41-year-old.
Randy Brown had a rough start to the match against Warlley Alves ending up taken down and probably giving away the first round. In the second he ended up down again, but had already hurt Alves who ended up caught into his triangle. Not exactly spectacular or convincing, but a win nonetheless through adversity.
Renan Barao got fucked pretty hard by the ref in his fight against Douglas Silva De Andrade. I don't really mind the decision too much given De Andrade put a hell of a beating on Barao, but Barao probably could have had two rounds in the bag had the ref not kept taking good positions away from him. Irks me, even if he was not doing that much, I still feel you should give more time in those situations to work.
Ariane Lipski won well against Isabela De Padua, as was expected considering the short notice of the bout. De Padua got pretty badly exposed on the feet, but showed some good jiujitsu to make the match competitive. Definitely deserves another chance with a full camp.
Vanessa Melo just... does not do much. She just kinda is there. So it was not a surprise Tracy Cortez put a volume on her and also got the better of grappling in their fight. Cortez was a bit undersized fighting at bantamweight, but looks like a could be a good prospect for the flyweight division, even if beating Melo does not really tell that much. Melo doesn't belong to this level.
Record now after eleven events is 78 out of 131. In main and co-main events my record is 13.5 out of 20. Draws count as halves in case you wonder. 8 winning nights and 3 losing.
The grind continues next week, hopefully this time I can get the previews done a bit sooner.
Main Card
I gotta be honest here - I fell asleep during the main event. I still saw enough to get the gist of it. Cautious kickboxing match with clinch here and here. I have no idea if the decision was legit or not, but it did seem like a very close fight where Jacare had better of it early on.Speaking of legit decisions, the Craig deserved at least a draw against Shogun and got it. Can't really argue with it, first round clear 10-8, then couple of 10-9s to Shogun. Craig put a beating on Shogun in the first, whereas Shogun just controlled him in the latter rounds. Honestly it is time for Shogun to hang them up, although Craig has been improving steadily, he isn't the kind of guy Shogun should have any trouble with.
Charles Oliveira was just as dominant as expected. Please match him up with a top guy next. There is no point in feeding him cans to extend his finishing streak. He is one of the best fighters in the division. Okay, maybe Gordon was not a can but he definitely was nowhere near good enough to share the cage with Oliveira.
Andre Muniz put Antonio Arroyo in trouble through a lot of grappling just as was expected. Arroyo just does not have the kid of takedown defence to really let his strong kicking game shine, and Muniz looks like someone who can actually do something in this middleweight division.
Wellington Thurman ended up being much better than Markus Perez, primarily through his superior wrestling, strength and conditioning. He is still rough around the edges, often losing chances to finish fights and losing dominant positions, but he definitely has a lot of potential given how young he is. Definitely a good win for him and a big step back for Perez.
Prelims
James Krause did what I expected him to like a clockwork, putting a pace on basic and aging Sergio Moraes, who tried to employ grappleheavy gameplan, but ended up just fading bad.Ricardo Ramos made quick work of Garagorri, who looks like the peripheral regional level talent you would expect UFC to have to fill the ranks with smaller MMA countries like Uruguay. Ramos looks legit great, good footwork and lethal jitz.
Trinaldo and Bobby Green put on a boring fight. Although Trinaldo got the win, you gotta wonder how much patience UFC will have on a 41-year-old putting back to back boring fights. Green's surprise at the decision amuses me, it was a close fight but Trinaldo won it legitly, but even if he genuinely felt he might have a chance at the decision, is he really expecting to win these razor-thin decisions in Brazil? Honestly, it was a poor performance from Green, lacking any urgency to go for the win, instead of hoping just to squeak by. This guy is 41, you have to be putting stronger performance than that while still in your prime against a 41-year-old.
Randy Brown had a rough start to the match against Warlley Alves ending up taken down and probably giving away the first round. In the second he ended up down again, but had already hurt Alves who ended up caught into his triangle. Not exactly spectacular or convincing, but a win nonetheless through adversity.
Renan Barao got fucked pretty hard by the ref in his fight against Douglas Silva De Andrade. I don't really mind the decision too much given De Andrade put a hell of a beating on Barao, but Barao probably could have had two rounds in the bag had the ref not kept taking good positions away from him. Irks me, even if he was not doing that much, I still feel you should give more time in those situations to work.
Ariane Lipski won well against Isabela De Padua, as was expected considering the short notice of the bout. De Padua got pretty badly exposed on the feet, but showed some good jiujitsu to make the match competitive. Definitely deserves another chance with a full camp.
Vanessa Melo just... does not do much. She just kinda is there. So it was not a surprise Tracy Cortez put a volume on her and also got the better of grappling in their fight. Cortez was a bit undersized fighting at bantamweight, but looks like a could be a good prospect for the flyweight division, even if beating Melo does not really tell that much. Melo doesn't belong to this level.
My Picks
So I only got 11 picks in thanks to Lipski's fight not being updated with the replacement opponent on my betting site. 8.5 out of 11 picks right is very solid night, and my bigger bets as well were this time better choices. Ended up taking a big win, probably biggest so far since starting to preview every fight. Best pick probably Oliveira who was my big bet pick, of course his odds were small but he made it look easy. Worst pick was Perez who disappointed, I expected it to be a close fight.Record now after eleven events is 78 out of 131. In main and co-main events my record is 13.5 out of 20. Draws count as halves in case you wonder. 8 winning nights and 3 losing.
The grind continues next week, hopefully this time I can get the previews done a bit sooner.
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