UFC Fight Night 164 Previews & Predictions
Every week I tell myself I will get the previews done early on the week, and every week I end up late rushing them in. Anyway, let's get to it.
It's not like Jacare is completely shot, just a bit faded. He has good power and he needs it to translate to light heavyweight, otherwise he is not gonna have a good time. Blachowicz is well-rounded, just kinda lacks anything that really pops out and the starching of Rockhold tells us really little. He is a big boy though and better range-fighter than Jacare, so I expect that he will just keep popping Jacare from the outside and ran away with a decision.
At least I would match rather see that than see Jacare flatlined. Blachowicz by UD.
Mauricio Rua by 2nd round KO.
Charles Oliveira vs. Jared Gordon
Why is Du Bronx not fighting against top-10 guys? How long winning streak does he need to put together? The guy is a sub master who also can do all the other facets of the game well. Gordon is decent, and Oliveira has been hurt before, so I guess Gordon has some chance to snatch this. Still, the fact that Gordon has never been submitted does not change that I feel Oliveira is clearly better here and this is bit of a gimme fight.
Charles Oliveira by 1st round submission.
Antonio Arroyo vs. Andre Muniz
Interesting style match-up from the contender series. Arroyo is a great kicker, but he is liable to have one of his kicks caught and Muniz taking him down. Muniz seems very deadly on the ground.
Muniz via UD.
Markus Perez vs. Wellington Thurman
Close fight on paper, both are good grapplers and decent strikers as well. Thurman can probably perform better than in his debut, but still I do think Perez has slightly the better decision making and more refined striking. It will be a close one though.
Perez via SD.
Sergio Moraes vs. James Krause
Moraes is kinda basic and getting up there in age. Krause puts a volume on you and has nice and varied game, plus enough savvy on the ground to survive should it go there. There is potential for close fight though, in which case Moraes could get a home cooking.
James Krause by UD.
Ricardo Ramos vs. Luiz Eduardo Garagorri
Garagorri went to a decision with Huachin, so he does not really impress me despite his unbeaten record. Ramos has very smooth footwork and I would expect him to keep this on the outside and pepper his way into a decision.
Ramos by UD.
Francisco Trinaldo vs. Bobby Green
Can't really put much difference between these two, so I think I will go for Bobby Green in the end for the fact that there just is not many guys in their 40s still dominating in the smaller weight classes. Surely Trinaldo is gonna start showing some real wear and tear soon?
Green by UD.
Warlley Alves vs. Randy Brown
Brown has ridiculous reach but he tends to not really make the best use of it. Alves is pretty solid everywhere but not spectacular either. This looks to me to be really close fight on paper.
Brown by SD.
Douglas Silva De Andrade vs. Renan Barao
I looked at Barao's record and was like oh my god, four losses in a row, KOd in his last fight, he has really faded. This will be a disaster for him. Then I noticed De Andrade is actually the older guy, and he never was the champ to begin with. Then I also noticed Barao actually did really well with Sanders before getting caught in the second.
De Andrade really struggled with Petr Yan in his last fight, but despite taking hellacious beating, his chin was still there so the corner had to stop it. Whereas I think Barao is just much more likely to get hurt if De Andrade connects. He connected a few on Yan, but it is one thing for 25-year-old top contender to take it and whole another for fading former champ to take it. I figure Barao will be winning the fight on the outside... until he isn't.
De Andrade via 2nd round KO.
Ariane Lipski vs. Isabela De Padua
Who knows who good this Isabela girl really is. All I know is I do like her fighting style, pressure forward and swing hard shots, disregarding what comes at you. She also does not seem to fade, well at least in regional paced fights.
Lipski should be better I guess for her reach advantage and UFC experience, but she really struggled to get out of the way against someone who pressures forward hard. De Padua definitely has a chance here, if she is as good as she has looked, and that is a big if considering the lack of competition she has faced. Also she is on short notice so its kind of living on a prayer to think she is ready for a 3 round war.
As of now my betsite does not offer odds so no pick yet, gonna update it later.
Vanessa Melo vs. Tracy Cortez
Well Melo came in on short notice and was soundly outclassed by Aldana, and she really looked thicc in that fight. Regardless now she is fighting much smaller opponent, but all in all I am still not convinced about her plodding kickboxing style. Tracy will put pressure, find clinches and takedowns and probably control it into a tight decision win.
Cortez via SD.
Main Event: Jan Blachowicz vs. Jacare Souza
This is the main event? Blach... Does not make me feel anything. Blachowicz wins, and he is not really any closer to title shot. Jacare wins and... guess he is somewhat relevant light heavyweight but he probably has hit his ceiling already.It's not like Jacare is completely shot, just a bit faded. He has good power and he needs it to translate to light heavyweight, otherwise he is not gonna have a good time. Blachowicz is well-rounded, just kinda lacks anything that really pops out and the starching of Rockhold tells us really little. He is a big boy though and better range-fighter than Jacare, so I expect that he will just keep popping Jacare from the outside and ran away with a decision.
At least I would match rather see that than see Jacare flatlined. Blachowicz by UD.
Co-Main Event: Mauricio Rua vs. Paul Craig
Shogun still has a little bit left in the tank. He always gets rocked in his fights, and I would not be surprised if even Craig hurts him, but he is still tough to finish if he can survive with Pedro to the 3rd and then finish him. Obviously UFC set this up for him to win on the home soil, Craig is a very rudimentary fighter who has been rounding out his striking, but is still predominantly a grappler. Surely Rua is too wily to get caught with anything on the ground?Mauricio Rua by 2nd round KO.
Charles Oliveira vs. Jared Gordon
Why is Du Bronx not fighting against top-10 guys? How long winning streak does he need to put together? The guy is a sub master who also can do all the other facets of the game well. Gordon is decent, and Oliveira has been hurt before, so I guess Gordon has some chance to snatch this. Still, the fact that Gordon has never been submitted does not change that I feel Oliveira is clearly better here and this is bit of a gimme fight.
Charles Oliveira by 1st round submission.
Antonio Arroyo vs. Andre Muniz
Interesting style match-up from the contender series. Arroyo is a great kicker, but he is liable to have one of his kicks caught and Muniz taking him down. Muniz seems very deadly on the ground.
Muniz via UD.
Markus Perez vs. Wellington Thurman
Close fight on paper, both are good grapplers and decent strikers as well. Thurman can probably perform better than in his debut, but still I do think Perez has slightly the better decision making and more refined striking. It will be a close one though.
Perez via SD.
Sergio Moraes vs. James Krause
Moraes is kinda basic and getting up there in age. Krause puts a volume on you and has nice and varied game, plus enough savvy on the ground to survive should it go there. There is potential for close fight though, in which case Moraes could get a home cooking.
James Krause by UD.
Ricardo Ramos vs. Luiz Eduardo Garagorri
Garagorri went to a decision with Huachin, so he does not really impress me despite his unbeaten record. Ramos has very smooth footwork and I would expect him to keep this on the outside and pepper his way into a decision.
Ramos by UD.
Francisco Trinaldo vs. Bobby Green
Can't really put much difference between these two, so I think I will go for Bobby Green in the end for the fact that there just is not many guys in their 40s still dominating in the smaller weight classes. Surely Trinaldo is gonna start showing some real wear and tear soon?
Green by UD.
Warlley Alves vs. Randy Brown
Brown has ridiculous reach but he tends to not really make the best use of it. Alves is pretty solid everywhere but not spectacular either. This looks to me to be really close fight on paper.
Brown by SD.
Douglas Silva De Andrade vs. Renan Barao
I looked at Barao's record and was like oh my god, four losses in a row, KOd in his last fight, he has really faded. This will be a disaster for him. Then I noticed De Andrade is actually the older guy, and he never was the champ to begin with. Then I also noticed Barao actually did really well with Sanders before getting caught in the second.
De Andrade really struggled with Petr Yan in his last fight, but despite taking hellacious beating, his chin was still there so the corner had to stop it. Whereas I think Barao is just much more likely to get hurt if De Andrade connects. He connected a few on Yan, but it is one thing for 25-year-old top contender to take it and whole another for fading former champ to take it. I figure Barao will be winning the fight on the outside... until he isn't.
De Andrade via 2nd round KO.
Ariane Lipski vs. Isabela De Padua
Who knows who good this Isabela girl really is. All I know is I do like her fighting style, pressure forward and swing hard shots, disregarding what comes at you. She also does not seem to fade, well at least in regional paced fights.
Lipski should be better I guess for her reach advantage and UFC experience, but she really struggled to get out of the way against someone who pressures forward hard. De Padua definitely has a chance here, if she is as good as she has looked, and that is a big if considering the lack of competition she has faced. Also she is on short notice so its kind of living on a prayer to think she is ready for a 3 round war.
As of now my betsite does not offer odds so no pick yet, gonna update it later.
Vanessa Melo vs. Tracy Cortez
Well Melo came in on short notice and was soundly outclassed by Aldana, and she really looked thicc in that fight. Regardless now she is fighting much smaller opponent, but all in all I am still not convinced about her plodding kickboxing style. Tracy will put pressure, find clinches and takedowns and probably control it into a tight decision win.
Cortez via SD.
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