UFC 245 Preview & Predictions
Intro
Heinisch via UD.
Main Event: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington
It is unlikely we will see a finish in this match between two durable guys with wrestling-heavy styles. Usman has 4 decisions in a row, Colby 5. Both are in their prime and will for sure come to the match in incredible shape.
Both guys have similar, hard to counter style and it is hard to find much differences between the two. Both have excellent cardio and top of the division wrestling. It seems unlikely that this will be a range kickboxing match, something that I would perhaps give Covington a slight advantage in. Nah, both guys like to pressure and gets close, so we will likely see lot of clinch exhanges.
It seems like Colby is the more technical striker of the two and Usman the more powerful guy. The fight is likely to come down to whoever has a wrestling advantage. It is hard to say, but I am inclined to think it is Usman who just has been more consistently good.
In the end it will be a close match though with Colby having a chance even if it ends up being largely a clinch/grappling affair. If they end up standing and banging, its also very close, but I would think the slight edge will go to Colby who thoroughly schooled Lawler in his last fight primarily on the feet. For sure at least in moments Colby can overwhelm Usman, but at the same time it will give plenty of opportunities for Usman to just grab hold of him.
I would not expect an all-time classic, but MMA has a way of surprising you. It is likely though to end up being an ugly clinchfest war of attrition, and Usman really has had a way of winning those... but then again so has Colby. The more I think about it, the closer this match seems. Based on the RDA fight where both fought very similarly, Usman is better. At the same time, Colby showed more improvement between the fights by polishing up his striking a lot.
Margins will be tight in this one, Usman by SD.
Co-Main Event: Max Holloway vs. Alexander Volkanovski
I have absolutely no idea what the hell will happen in this fight. So let's start again with what we know. Max is the GOAT of featherweight. His combination of high volume striking, iron chin and solid takedown defence has had him unbeaten at Featherweight for 14 fights straight. He is beaten the who's who of the division at the moment, but there is one real contender left and that is Alexander Volkanovski.
My initial thought was Volkanovski was similar fighter to Edgar, but in the end he does not really actively pursue the takedown so much, but is good at grabbing them when the opportunity arises. The key differences to Edgar are that he is in his prime, so he is stronger and faster, and that he actually has 2.5 inches of reach over Max.
That might be the key cause Edgar managed to hit Holloway a few times but generally struggled with range and fought cautiously. Well we know Volkanovski won't be cautious, has more speed and length and will be filling to get in there and throw with Holloway. So this is unlikely to be a tactical battle like Holloway's last defence was, and more likely to be more of the usual line of Holloway fights - absolute blood, guts and glory.
Max relies so heavily on his chin that I gotta say I am worried for him, eventually he will get caught. But he took a beating twice from Aldo, Poirier, fought full distance with McGregor as a young distance and never got finished in any of those so... can we really reasonably doubt his chin? I will put it out there though, it is possible Volkanovski can put him out if he swarms him with a good combination that lands on the button.
Volkanovski is very well conditioned so just like Poirier, I expect him to not fade away so badly that he will get finished because of lack of cardio. Can he put as much damage on Holloway in the meantime is another matter. I do not think he will win a decision if it is a pure striking battle. He won't badly fade, but Holloway probably is more slick so if Volkanovski doesn't badly hurt him, he will eventually just put up the numbers to get the decision.
However, I think Volkanovski can make the striking battle close enough even without hurting Holloway to snatch a couple of rounds, and then clinch up or hit an opportunistic takedown no snatch the key remaining round to win a close decision. It's all a question of how good Volkanovski actually is, and he for sure has looked like a champ level fighter.
All in all this is an example of a fight where literally anything can happen and where margins are tight. In the end though, everything points of this being a violent war, and that is Max Holloway's type of fight. Still I cannot shake the feeling that Volkanovski just is so dangerous opponent for him. So I expect it to be pretty much 50/50 fight. I dunno, I am indecisive here. The key will be how well Volkanovski mixes everything and if he can catch Max with powershots, cause he ain't gonna win with just straight up spamming takedowns or fighting a kickboxing match. He will be competitive, but he ain't gonna win.
In the end, I hope for another classic Max Holloway performance. Blessed via 5th round TKO.
Third Title Fight: Amanda Nunes vs. Germaine de Randamie
This is the first fight where the end result feels like a foregone conclusion. They fought before and Nunes became the only woman to TKO GDR, even if she did not actually take that much damage in that match, just was stuck taking GnP.
Of course, that fight was so many years ago it is hardly relevant. They both have improved, but you would have to think Nunes is the one who improved more given she is only in her prime now in terms of age. GDR on the other hand is up there in age. That being said, she might have improved her takedown defence and escapes enough to avoid the same fate as in their first encounter.
Considering how great Nunes has looked lately and how inactive GDR has been, this is a prime example though of a fight where public will greatly over-estimate Nunes. It is likely that she just defeats GDR easily, but at the same time be need to remind ourselves of both Shevchenko fights and realize that Nunes, after all is just a human. All that is needed to beat her is keeping the range, keeping a pace and taking her to deep waters.
Cardio is not the strong suit of the champ, after all, even if she has improved in it. GDR's only viable way to victory (aside somewhat flukey KO similar to Ladd fight) is to make it a range kickboxing match and tire Nunes out.
Nunes should be too good for that to be possible, but we are also yet to see if the crazy success she has had will affect her. It is one thing to become champion but even harder to keep that same drive to train hard and keep pushing your ability. After likes of Rousey and Cyborg it might hard to get motivated for someone like GDR.
All that being said, even Nunes that's lost her edge and ends up gassed in a five round war should just have enough in her to beat De Randamie. So Nunes via 3rd round submission.
Of course, that fight was so many years ago it is hardly relevant. They both have improved, but you would have to think Nunes is the one who improved more given she is only in her prime now in terms of age. GDR on the other hand is up there in age. That being said, she might have improved her takedown defence and escapes enough to avoid the same fate as in their first encounter.
Considering how great Nunes has looked lately and how inactive GDR has been, this is a prime example though of a fight where public will greatly over-estimate Nunes. It is likely that she just defeats GDR easily, but at the same time be need to remind ourselves of both Shevchenko fights and realize that Nunes, after all is just a human. All that is needed to beat her is keeping the range, keeping a pace and taking her to deep waters.
Cardio is not the strong suit of the champ, after all, even if she has improved in it. GDR's only viable way to victory (aside somewhat flukey KO similar to Ladd fight) is to make it a range kickboxing match and tire Nunes out.
Nunes should be too good for that to be possible, but we are also yet to see if the crazy success she has had will affect her. It is one thing to become champion but even harder to keep that same drive to train hard and keep pushing your ability. After likes of Rousey and Cyborg it might hard to get motivated for someone like GDR.
All that being said, even Nunes that's lost her edge and ends up gassed in a five round war should just have enough in her to beat De Randamie. So Nunes via 3rd round submission.
Marlon Moraes vs. Jose Aldo
Here's the key question... is Volkanovski just that good, or was Aldo just that bad? He just kinda sleepwalked through his last fight. It was really unlike any defeats most fading fighters face. Either they just don't look good enough at all any more, or they can't take a shot any more, or they start gassing fast. Well, Aldo always has had the tendency to gas fast and I don't expect it to get any better at bantamweight.
Aldo just did not really go for it at any point and got outvolumed. Perhaps he is mentally on his way out and just wants to avoid damage as much as possible, hence this decision to cut down to 135 where guys (hopefully) won't hit as hard. Who knows really what Aldo thinks... I just don't have a good feeling about it.
Moraes of course famously had something of a gassing problem himself against Henry Cejudo in the title fight. However, as big of a bantamweight as he is as well, at least that is his natural weight class. For Jose, he just looks awful and was probably too big to begin with at featherweight. I seriously expect him to have a very compromised chin and cardio because of the extreme cut.
As far as skills go, it's a pretty close fight. Aldo obviously should have far the more power being the bigger guy, but Marlon is fast and could just dart in and out from outside similarly to what Volkanovski did. I have to be a brave man to pick against one of the greatest featherweights of all time, but I just don't think that cut was a great idea.
Moraes via 3rd round KO.
Aldo just did not really go for it at any point and got outvolumed. Perhaps he is mentally on his way out and just wants to avoid damage as much as possible, hence this decision to cut down to 135 where guys (hopefully) won't hit as hard. Who knows really what Aldo thinks... I just don't have a good feeling about it.
Moraes of course famously had something of a gassing problem himself against Henry Cejudo in the title fight. However, as big of a bantamweight as he is as well, at least that is his natural weight class. For Jose, he just looks awful and was probably too big to begin with at featherweight. I seriously expect him to have a very compromised chin and cardio because of the extreme cut.
As far as skills go, it's a pretty close fight. Aldo obviously should have far the more power being the bigger guy, but Marlon is fast and could just dart in and out from outside similarly to what Volkanovski did. I have to be a brave man to pick against one of the greatest featherweights of all time, but I just don't think that cut was a great idea.
Moraes via 3rd round KO.
Petr Yan vs. Urijah Faber
Well on the surface this seems like a complete non-contest - Yan is one of the elite bantamweight contenders, and Faber is 40 years old. If you do think about it deeper though, it's not like Yan has seemed like an unbeatable monster or anything, just technically very solid guy with hardly any holes in his game.
Faber on the other hand has not fought anyone legit in a while. Not taking a snipe at Ricky Simon, I think he is pretty good, but that fight had kinda flukey ending, so it does not tell us a lot, and Pickett fight was just set as an easy farewell for Urijah, obviously at that point Pickett was way over the hill. So we have to go all the way back to 2016 before we get some good level competition for Faber.
In his fight against Rivera he did not look bad, just had his usual achilles heel - the leg kicks. He never learned from Aldo piecing him up, still sits heavy on his front leg. Yan has excellent kicks, both high and low, and that probably will be Faber's demise, even if he has not lost a step since 2016.
I mean, we have to start with that presumption since if he has aged like a normal 40-year-old, this could end up really ugly. But it's not completely unrealistic assumption either that Faber could bend time a little bit and actually not be that faded yet. In that case, he does have a realistic way to win this fight (aside another flukey KO - Yan has never been KO'd but he does tend to take a few clean shots in every fight) and that is through making this a grappling match.
Yan's record does not have any high-profile grapplers in it, though of course in Russian scene he would have had his takedown defence tested by sambo guys etc. Still, Faber has the kind of wrestling pedigree to test Yan. In the end it is just a question of how much of a chance does Faber have, cause obviously he is gonna be a big underdog in this fight. I don't believe KOing Simon means that Faber is still elite or can actually make another run for the title, like I said I saw it as something of a fluke result.
I don't want a hall of famer like Urijah to get starched either though, but I do expect Yan will make it quite one-sided stand-up affair and piece him up good. Yan via UD.
Faber on the other hand has not fought anyone legit in a while. Not taking a snipe at Ricky Simon, I think he is pretty good, but that fight had kinda flukey ending, so it does not tell us a lot, and Pickett fight was just set as an easy farewell for Urijah, obviously at that point Pickett was way over the hill. So we have to go all the way back to 2016 before we get some good level competition for Faber.
In his fight against Rivera he did not look bad, just had his usual achilles heel - the leg kicks. He never learned from Aldo piecing him up, still sits heavy on his front leg. Yan has excellent kicks, both high and low, and that probably will be Faber's demise, even if he has not lost a step since 2016.
I mean, we have to start with that presumption since if he has aged like a normal 40-year-old, this could end up really ugly. But it's not completely unrealistic assumption either that Faber could bend time a little bit and actually not be that faded yet. In that case, he does have a realistic way to win this fight (aside another flukey KO - Yan has never been KO'd but he does tend to take a few clean shots in every fight) and that is through making this a grappling match.
Yan's record does not have any high-profile grapplers in it, though of course in Russian scene he would have had his takedown defence tested by sambo guys etc. Still, Faber has the kind of wrestling pedigree to test Yan. In the end it is just a question of how much of a chance does Faber have, cause obviously he is gonna be a big underdog in this fight. I don't believe KOing Simon means that Faber is still elite or can actually make another run for the title, like I said I saw it as something of a fluke result.
I don't want a hall of famer like Urijah to get starched either though, but I do expect Yan will make it quite one-sided stand-up affair and piece him up good. Yan via UD.
Mike Perry vs. Geoff Neal
Perry might be more known from his antics and aggressive, brawling style, but he does have some decent skill to back up his natural power and toughness. The match-up against Neal is certainly a close one. I just can't help but to feel like the 4 inch reach disadvantage will become a problem for Perry. He will try to get in range, over-extend and get caught with a shot or worse yet, a takedown.
The thing with Perry is that he can take a hellacious beating and still keep coming, whereas Neal... well he just has shown more vulnerability to getting hit hard. On the standup they are pretty even, but Neal has more weapons in his arsenal. That is not to say Perry is lost if it goes to the ground, but I just think Neal can snatch some rounds via takedowns and that might ultimately be what makes the difference in this match.
Still with as much of a underdog as Perry is, I have to pick him via 2nd round KO.
The thing with Perry is that he can take a hellacious beating and still keep coming, whereas Neal... well he just has shown more vulnerability to getting hit hard. On the standup they are pretty even, but Neal has more weapons in his arsenal. That is not to say Perry is lost if it goes to the ground, but I just think Neal can snatch some rounds via takedowns and that might ultimately be what makes the difference in this match.
Still with as much of a underdog as Perry is, I have to pick him via 2nd round KO.
Ketlen Vieira vs. Irene Aldana
Close fight. Vieira the better-rounded fighter with crushing top game coupled with functional Muay Thai, but Aldana has strong takedown defence and is a capable outside striker. It's a close fight either way, but in stand-up Aldana ought to have the advantage. Vieira tends to take some hard shots. If she does get this down she could dominate but Aldana has shown pretty good takedown defence in her past and has never been completely outgunned.
Aldana via UD.
Aldana via UD.
Ian Heinisch vs. Omari Akhmedov
Heinisch puts a higher pace and seems to be the better outside striker, whereas Akhmedov probably has the grappling advantage. Heinisch has excellent balance though, so this should be a stand-up affair. In that case, volume of Heinisch will likely mean he will take this, but Akhmedov definitely packs enough punch to score a KO himself, I just don't trust him to win rounds if he does not manage to make it an ugly clinch fight.
Heinisch via UD.
Matt Brown vs. Ben Saunders
Well Matt Brown retired two years ago after knocking out a grappler with is a shoddy chin. Now he returns once more to fight another grappler with a shoddy chin. The only difference of course being that unlike Sanchez who is small for a welterweight, Saunders is lanky and packs decent punch.
So actually I think he would be doing okay against Brown, if he just had any chin at all. Put Brown can hit you hard and defend the takedowns, you just feel eventually Saunders is gonna get caught with something and get KOd again.
Of course we have no idea how Brown is gonna look after two years away from the sport. Saunders is powerful enough to also rock him if the age has finally caught up with him. Still, I feel Brown KOing is the more likely outcome. All in all, I still like the match-up, not matching these faded guys against young killers but against each other.
Brown via 2nd round KO.
So actually I think he would be doing okay against Brown, if he just had any chin at all. Put Brown can hit you hard and defend the takedowns, you just feel eventually Saunders is gonna get caught with something and get KOd again.
Of course we have no idea how Brown is gonna look after two years away from the sport. Saunders is powerful enough to also rock him if the age has finally caught up with him. Still, I feel Brown KOing is the more likely outcome. All in all, I still like the match-up, not matching these faded guys against young killers but against each other.
Brown via 2nd round KO.
Daniel Teymur vs. Chase Hooper
It's a bit soon for Chase Hooper to be fighting this level of opposition. He is obviously a very talented grappler, but his striking defence is shoddy and at this level will end up taking a lot of damage before getting the subs. I would have slowplayed it myself more, given it couple more years, but obviously he can win this fight.
The worse Teymur brother is barely UFC level guy anyway. His lack of reach will be a big issue here, since he obviously would want to stay outside with a guy like Hooper, but his effective style is to swarm inside and throw powershots. I have little doubt that Hooper will eat a couple of hard shots, but ultimately this fight will always end up in clinch and that's where Hooper should be able to turn it to his favor.
Hooper also being just 20, he might have improved a lot from his past showings already. Hooper via 3rd round submission.
The worse Teymur brother is barely UFC level guy anyway. His lack of reach will be a big issue here, since he obviously would want to stay outside with a guy like Hooper, but his effective style is to swarm inside and throw powershots. I have little doubt that Hooper will eat a couple of hard shots, but ultimately this fight will always end up in clinch and that's where Hooper should be able to turn it to his favor.
Hooper also being just 20, he might have improved a lot from his past showings already. Hooper via 3rd round submission.
Brandon Moreno vs. Kai Kara-France
Another fight I do not know what to think of. Moreno is extremely tough guy to finish. Kara-France probably is the better stand-up fighter, but it is not a big difference. Moreno probably has the grappling advantage, but again by not big margin. It might very well come down to durability in this fight, which makes me lean towards picking Moreno.
Moreno via 3rd round submission.
Moreno via 3rd round submission.
Jessica Eye vs. Viviane Araujo
So, Eye missed weight, and when you think about the KO she suffered in her last fight, you have to wonder where she is mentally about fighting. There is also some concern about how well she takes a shot. Araujo is no Shevchenko, but she moves very well, fights aggressively and hits hard. She is also not someone you can just grind out with wrestling. You can't pick Eye in this match up with good confidence even under normal circumstances, but under these circumstances it seems almost a given Araujo has this.
Araujo via UD.
Araujo via UD.
Punahele Soriano vs. Oskar Piechota
Piechota has some decent UFC experience and is a solid fighter, but this is still a very winnable debut fight for Soriano, who is powerful and aggressive. Piechota has a decent chin so Soriano has to really catch him with something solid to take him out. Soriano tends to slow a little bit, but that is primarily due to inexperience and being used to finish everyone in the 1st.
Still, I see him taking first with aggression and then probably scraping the second as well. Piechota might come on stronger in 3rd round, but I don't see him having enough advantage anywhere to fully capitalize.
Soriano via 1st round KO.
Still, I see him taking first with aggression and then probably scraping the second as well. Piechota might come on stronger in 3rd round, but I don't see him having enough advantage anywhere to fully capitalize.
Soriano via 1st round KO.
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