UFC Fight Night 165 Post-Fight Analysis

Somehow, with some decent luck I keep my win streak alive.

Main Card

The Main Event went pretty much as expected, with Edgar struggling to get a takedown and then getting starched on the feet. KZ called out the champ, and you would not begrudge him for getting a title shot after the manner he has been dispatching guys away lately. Still he probably will have to wait until Max and Volkanovski rematch. 

The Co-Main had a controversial decision, but it was a close fight. That being said, I did not feel confident going into the decision, there was inevitability that Rakic had the first two rounds, although the look on Rakic's face said it all at the end of 3rd - he was defeated man. As a fight, the vicious leg kicks and constant pressure brought Oezdemir the win, but again judging by round system it seemed like Rakic had done enough.

I don't mind either way, it's a matter of perspective and luck here to get a pick right. I feel that Oezdemir was the better fighter in the end, and that the fight was definitely turning to his favor in the end. Certainly in five round fight he would have won, but that is just what if talk. 

From UFC's perpective it turned out for the best, with Rakic getting the kind of fight that teaches an exciting prospect a lot, but also the kind of fight where he did not get starched but actually looked very good and extremely powerful. Rakic proved he is legit top level fighter and a big problem to a lot of guys in the division. Hell, with the kind of speed, power and length he has, he could even KO Jones. Don't take me wrong, I think he would lose 4 times out of 5, but he definitely would have a chance.

Doo Ho Choi as a top level contender is sadly done. He just does not have the kind of chin to pull of the style he fights and I doubt he will ever improve his defence to be good enough. Nonetheless, there is a long road to reconstruct his style to even such an extent that he could be a competent gatekeeper. I feel bad for overlooking his opponent. I was impressed with how well Jourdain did against Greene, so I should have seen that he had a great chance to beat Superboy. Hindsight is always 20/20.

Mike "Slow" Rodriguez showed truly why his nickname is Slow. Slow start, getting overwhelmed by aggressive Da Un Jung, then even slower, lethargic hook that left him completely exposed to get flatlined. Jung looked very good in this fight, throw him against someone competent next.

Mr. Perfect put on a perfect wrestlefucking display against Pingyan Liu, who somehow got the fight on one judges scorecard. Judge fuckery aside, it was a one-sided fight.

Prelims

Ciryl Gane is legit, and put on the kind of display you would wanna see. Boser is no walk in the park, but Gane made him seem helpless. Impressive toughness and great defence showed by Boser to make it to the final bell, but no doubt Gane has the size and skill to go all the way in this heavyweight division. Someone suggested Gane v Hardy and I would not mind that at all, think Gane would completely dominate.

How is Suman Mohktarian in the UFC? Seriously I am confused. His last loss I could accept, he was against a powerful guy and got barraged immediately to a perhaps bit premature stoppage. Here I expected him to try to wrestlefuck with this lanky Korean Choi, but instead he just circled outside the whole match and took a hell of a beating. Kudos for surviving to the bell but there was nothing good on the performance for him. 

Omar Morales looked solid against Dong Huyn Ma. Powerful guy, rocked Ma a few times and deserved his win. I rated Pantoja as the most durable guy in flyweight division and he showed that against Schnell, willingly engaging in a violent slugfest that had both guys rocked at times, before ultimately ending in Schnell getting knocked out.

Raoni Barcelos was too much with his wrestling for Said Nurmagomedov, but it was a competitive match all the way. For first two matches I did not really see much because of technical difficulties, but Lemos at least choked Granger completely unconscious, being one of my best picks of the night. As for Benoit, I feel like he got fucked on the decision, however like I said I only saw fragments so hard to say really.

My picks

I got 8 out of 13 right. After prelims I was doing very well but the profits were small, so the terrible beginning to the main card had me well on my way for a losing night. With some luck in Co-Main and Main events I rallied back for another winning night, 6th event in a row where I made a profit. 

My best pick arguably was Lemos, who was big underdog but made easy work of Granger. However in terms of profit it was nothing compared to another underdog pick in Oezdemir. Oezdemir win is my biggest single bet win thus far out of all my 165 bets, but I can't say it was the best pick when the decision was so razor thin and arguably lucky. 

Worst pick was Korean Superboy, I should have been able to see that Jourdain much better value here, even if I though Choi would likely win it. 

Overall record is now 103 out of 165 for correct pick rate of 62,42 %. Like I keep saying, I am due for a downswing. I think I have been doing great picks generally, but I have had some luck on the way too to keep quite so winning record. The luck will sooner of later turn.