UFC on ESPN 7 Post-Fight Analysis
Another great night of fights, and especially great night of bets. Thanks to couple of draw decisions, I only got one pick outright done tonight. I am either getting really good at this, or I just happen to be running at particularly good streak of luck. Let's get into breaking down the fights.
Didn't change the fact the KO in the end was absolutely vicious, but at least it was a good sign he did stay conscious despite the hellacious shot. He was done nonetheless.
The co-main was extremely close as expected, with it leaning bit more on Calvillo side than I expected. She managed bit more control on the ground than I would have expected and thus managed to get a draw, which seems a pretty legit result in the end.
Rothwell's win left a bad taste in my mouth, and I am sure pretty much in anyone's mouth. Yeah, Struve actually looked very solid this time, perhaps retiring and changing his mind had him come back with renewed focus. His chin though, I dunno... When Rothwell finally managed to put together some strikes, he eventually went down, even though he could have taken a dive for likely DQ/Decision win. Toughness got punished here.
Kunitskaya showed herself to be pretty solid clinch fighter against Ladd and it was pretty competitive fight while it lasted, though Ladd probably would have gotten a decision even if she didn't absolutely storm Kunitskaya in the beginning of the third for a TKO.
Yadong Song showed holes in his game when it comes to grappling agaist Stamann, but was lucky to escape with a draw. I do think he won the first round, but that round just like second were very close rounds and third he definitely lost. I can see it being a draw, but before decision was read I could not help but to feel that Stamann did enough to win that. Hopefully this is a good learning experience for Song.
Rob Font and Ricky Simon had a very close fight where both looked good. In the end Font squeezed that little extra to get a decision. Nonetheless Simon looked good too and is a young fighter with a lot of upside.
Billy Quarantillo made easy work Jacob Kilburn, who is just basic, powerful guy with a very padded record against inexperiecned guys. He might become good some day, but there is no use rushing him back to the big show, he needs many years of rounding out his skills and there is no reason for him to be taking this kind of punishment any time soon. Quarantillo on the other hand looked very solid, but this was not much of a test and he needs to face some legit UFC level competition next.
I am happy when I call fights exactly right and that was the case in fight between Mitchell and Sayles. Sayles probably would have had clearly the advantage on the feet, but could not manage distance and just dived into Mitchell's lap. Once Mitchell had his hands on him, it was downhill quick, with Mitchell ending the fight via rare twister. Kinda just shows how big of an advantage he had on the ground.
Another fight I called exactly right was Joe Solecki completely outmatching Matt Wiman who never should have fought in UFC again. He took a terrible beating last time out and although he got off a little easier this time, still was easily outclassed by a contender guy, not even having much of a good moment through the fight. Even if he did not get that busted up or rocked, he still ended up taking a lot of shots anyway.
It's like Wiman never was absolute elite fighter to begin with, then he was five years out and was just completely outdated in his last fight, what was gonna change this time around? It's also bizarre he seemed somehow upset at Solecki for dominating him, as if there was something wrong in just being the better fighter? I dunno... bad conduct, bad performance, hope he retires for his own good.
Mallory Martin was my only losing pick and my high trust in her was misplaced. Guess this is what happens when you look good against weaker competition and then face someone legit. Good one for Virnaroba, showed better offensive wrestling and obviously very good grappling.
Makhmud Muradov was easily running away with a decision via composed, technical performance, but capped it off with absolutely vicious KO that sent Trevor Smith's mouthpiece flying across the cage. Muradov is ready for a step-up in competition.
This is particularly relevant in this event, since there was two majority draws. That meant that I only got one bet completely wrong out of 9. I of course picked Quarantillo correctly as well, but since I could not place a bet on him, that does not count for totals. Nonetheless I am now at 86 wins from 139 bets, very solid 61.87 % of correct picks. 9 winning nights against only 3 losing, with nearly 10 % ROI. In Main and Co-Main Events, my record is 15 out of 22.
Next weekend is the big one, UFC 245... See you in a few days!
The Main Card
Overeem fought the perfect fight against Jairzinho, yet he got, as I expected, obliterated in the end. It took until the very last seconds for that to happen, with Jairzinho finally landing that clean, hard shot he had been looking for all evening. Overeem grappled and hung well with him on the feet, avoiding taking anything clean all match, and anything that sort of semi-landed, his chin actually took. Good on him.Didn't change the fact the KO in the end was absolutely vicious, but at least it was a good sign he did stay conscious despite the hellacious shot. He was done nonetheless.
The co-main was extremely close as expected, with it leaning bit more on Calvillo side than I expected. She managed bit more control on the ground than I would have expected and thus managed to get a draw, which seems a pretty legit result in the end.
Rothwell's win left a bad taste in my mouth, and I am sure pretty much in anyone's mouth. Yeah, Struve actually looked very solid this time, perhaps retiring and changing his mind had him come back with renewed focus. His chin though, I dunno... When Rothwell finally managed to put together some strikes, he eventually went down, even though he could have taken a dive for likely DQ/Decision win. Toughness got punished here.
Kunitskaya showed herself to be pretty solid clinch fighter against Ladd and it was pretty competitive fight while it lasted, though Ladd probably would have gotten a decision even if she didn't absolutely storm Kunitskaya in the beginning of the third for a TKO.
Yadong Song showed holes in his game when it comes to grappling agaist Stamann, but was lucky to escape with a draw. I do think he won the first round, but that round just like second were very close rounds and third he definitely lost. I can see it being a draw, but before decision was read I could not help but to feel that Stamann did enough to win that. Hopefully this is a good learning experience for Song.
Rob Font and Ricky Simon had a very close fight where both looked good. In the end Font squeezed that little extra to get a decision. Nonetheless Simon looked good too and is a young fighter with a lot of upside.
Prelims
The fight between two veterans ended pretty quick as Tim Means subbed Thiago Alves. Alves started with good aggression and tested Means' chin a couple of times, but in the end the technical mastery of Means had him hurt Alves and finish him. He probably still has at least couple of good fights in him.Billy Quarantillo made easy work Jacob Kilburn, who is just basic, powerful guy with a very padded record against inexperiecned guys. He might become good some day, but there is no use rushing him back to the big show, he needs many years of rounding out his skills and there is no reason for him to be taking this kind of punishment any time soon. Quarantillo on the other hand looked very solid, but this was not much of a test and he needs to face some legit UFC level competition next.
I am happy when I call fights exactly right and that was the case in fight between Mitchell and Sayles. Sayles probably would have had clearly the advantage on the feet, but could not manage distance and just dived into Mitchell's lap. Once Mitchell had his hands on him, it was downhill quick, with Mitchell ending the fight via rare twister. Kinda just shows how big of an advantage he had on the ground.
Another fight I called exactly right was Joe Solecki completely outmatching Matt Wiman who never should have fought in UFC again. He took a terrible beating last time out and although he got off a little easier this time, still was easily outclassed by a contender guy, not even having much of a good moment through the fight. Even if he did not get that busted up or rocked, he still ended up taking a lot of shots anyway.
It's like Wiman never was absolute elite fighter to begin with, then he was five years out and was just completely outdated in his last fight, what was gonna change this time around? It's also bizarre he seemed somehow upset at Solecki for dominating him, as if there was something wrong in just being the better fighter? I dunno... bad conduct, bad performance, hope he retires for his own good.
Mallory Martin was my only losing pick and my high trust in her was misplaced. Guess this is what happens when you look good against weaker competition and then face someone legit. Good one for Virnaroba, showed better offensive wrestling and obviously very good grappling.
Makhmud Muradov was easily running away with a decision via composed, technical performance, but capped it off with absolutely vicious KO that sent Trevor Smith's mouthpiece flying across the cage. Muradov is ready for a step-up in competition.
My Bets
Because I recently typed in all of my bets into a spreadsheet since I started doing this preview thing thoroughly, there's going to be a little bit of a disparity in numbers presented in previous posts and this one. For one, the betting site I use just returns bets in case of a draw and it does not show anywhere, so I am not gonna be counting them as halves to the total any more.This is particularly relevant in this event, since there was two majority draws. That meant that I only got one bet completely wrong out of 9. I of course picked Quarantillo correctly as well, but since I could not place a bet on him, that does not count for totals. Nonetheless I am now at 86 wins from 139 bets, very solid 61.87 % of correct picks. 9 winning nights against only 3 losing, with nearly 10 % ROI. In Main and Co-Main Events, my record is 15 out of 22.
Next weekend is the big one, UFC 245... See you in a few days!
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