UFC on ESPN 7 Preview & Predictions
Alright there was a couple of week break without UFC events, which you would think of as a welcome change to replenish some energy after 11 weeks straight of writing previews, but all it really did was destroy my research habits so these are done last minute once again. Let's get straight into it.
Jairzinho via 1st round KO.
Rodriguez via UD.
Stefan Struve vs. Ben Rothwell
Again on paper this is a close match-up, but Rothwell cracks hard and Struve had been KO'd ton of times. Ben is also a big guy that likes to pressure so Struve won't even have the kind of size advantage he usually has, even if he clearly has the reach. Still think Ben is hardnosed enough to get in there, make it ugly and either KO Struve or grind out a victory. I also don't see Struve threatening Rothwell in submissions.
Can't also forget that Struve already retired, which was a smart decision, but deciding to come back on the other hand... probably was not.
Rothwell via 2nd round KO.
Aspen Ladd vs. Yana Kunitskaya
Clearly this is set-up as a match-up for Ladd to start to rebuild. The stoppage against De Randamie was arguably early, but it hardly would have changed anyone. She always gets hit, and that shot really messed her up, even if she managed to initially recover, it seemed likely GDR was always gonna put her out.
Could Kunitskaya do that as well? I would say its a real possibility, but the fact that Ladd was still conscious after eating that shot from GDR suggests she is hard to get out of there. Both of these fighters also have a tendency to just fall into clinch so I don't expect this to be a range kickboxing match for long - that is something I would think Kunitskaya has a better chance. In grappling, Ladd should make her have a bad time.
Ladd via UD.
Yadong Song vs. Cody Stamann
Another interesting, close match-up. For such a young fighter, Song looks immense, but perhaps Stamann is the more rounded one of the two. Still, Cody was cracked a few times Perez and Song is better at moving, hiding his strikes and faster. So you would expect Song to win this one if it stays standing. Stamann definitely has the ability to win a grappling match though.
Youth and reach being on Song's side, I kinda am leaning towards picking him. So let's go with it.
Song via 2nd round KO.
Rob Font vs. Ricky Simon
Although getting KOd by old Urijah Faber is not a good look, Simon is not just a can. So far he has shown in his UFC career that he is an aggressive, high-pace fighter that is capable in every range. However, this is a tough match-up, cause for my money, Font is one of the better contenders of the division and in his prime right now. This should be set-up for him to get a highlight victory.
Rob Font via 2nd round KO.
Thiago Alves vs. Tim Means
Battle of couple veterans. Neither are hardly shot, just a little shopworn. Means got KOd in his last fight after dominating the match, which is not a good look thinking on his chin. You just can't trust the chin of a guy of that age after taking a KO loss like that, but that said it is too early to proclaim his chin is completely gone - after all, Niko Price hits ridiculously hard.
The problem for Alves is that he is not much of a KO threat in his later career. He is still fundamentally sound, but seems to just have lost a step, and I don't see him winning a plodding kickboxing match with Means, who is much too technical for that and has the range.
Tim Means via UD.
Billy Quarantillo vs. Jacob Kilburn
I don't know man. Kilburn's record looks good until you take a closer look and realize he has lost to anyone any good he has fought. Guy hits hard, that's pretty much it, but he has been KOing .500 journeymen and guys with less than 5 fights. Quarantillo's record looks much stronger in comparison. From the little I saw he also seems very durable, so it would be hard to bank on Kilburn winning this.
I would pick Quarantillo, but seems the site I bet on does not offer the match so never mind.
Bryce Mitchell vs. Matt Sayles
Mitchell seems to have the better footwork and grappling of the two, whereas Sayles will probably have the better in the stand-up. He just doesn't seem too good of an outside fighter so I kinda expect them to come together enough time for Mitchell to work his grappling.
Bryce Mitchell via 3rd round submission.
Joe Solecki vs. Matt Wiman
I am kinda hesitant to pick contender fighters usually, cause they tend to look better against weaker competition. However, Wiman looks not to be on a level of 2019 UFC fighter any more, but rather badly faded after a long lay-off, whereas Solecki absolutely obliterated his opposition and showed very good skill in all ranges. I don't expect Wiman to have a good time here, and I think he should not be fighting any more.
Solecki via 1st round KO.
Mallory Martin vs. Virna Jandiroba
Martin is very rudimentary in the stand-up, but when she grabs a hold of you she usually takes you down, keeps you there and beats you up. Jandiroba is former Invicta champ and was competitive in her UFC debut against Esparza, but he problems were precisely getting taken down repeatedly.
At least here she should be able to get the better of the standup, but the worry is that she ends up losing via ground control even if she is good at escaping those positions. It's a pretty close match-up on paper.
Martin being big underdog she is a clear pick for this one, Martin via UD.
Makhmud Muradov vs. Trevor Smith
It looks like it would be a stand-up affair, and in that Muradov is perhaps the one who is bit better mover and bit faster. It's a close fight but would expect Muradov to do even better than in his debut with full camp.
Muradov via UD.
Main Event: Alistair Overeem vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Wow got Jairzinho's name right with the first attempt. Anyway, Overeem should be the clearly better fighter, but his chin has already bee completely pulverized by a long career, and Jairzinho put Arlovski down with a jab. Overeem's path to victory is via grappling, Jairzinho definitely is crude in that department but I just can't trust Overeem to not get obliterated in the opening exchanges.Jairzinho via 1st round KO.
Co-Main Event: Marina Rodriguez vs. Cynthia Calvillo
It is good matchmaking... for a prelim fight. Weird that it gets the nod for Co-Main. That aside, the fighters are very evenly matched, with Marina having edge in standup, and Calvillo being the better grappler. It just seems Calvillo is all too willing to just strike and based on what we have seen, Rodriguez is very hard to take down and can punish you for clinching up. Close fight, I would expect Rodriguez to outpoint Calvillo for two rounds and Calvillo winning one round off of a takedown.Rodriguez via UD.
Stefan Struve vs. Ben Rothwell
Again on paper this is a close match-up, but Rothwell cracks hard and Struve had been KO'd ton of times. Ben is also a big guy that likes to pressure so Struve won't even have the kind of size advantage he usually has, even if he clearly has the reach. Still think Ben is hardnosed enough to get in there, make it ugly and either KO Struve or grind out a victory. I also don't see Struve threatening Rothwell in submissions.
Can't also forget that Struve already retired, which was a smart decision, but deciding to come back on the other hand... probably was not.
Rothwell via 2nd round KO.
Aspen Ladd vs. Yana Kunitskaya
Clearly this is set-up as a match-up for Ladd to start to rebuild. The stoppage against De Randamie was arguably early, but it hardly would have changed anyone. She always gets hit, and that shot really messed her up, even if she managed to initially recover, it seemed likely GDR was always gonna put her out.
Could Kunitskaya do that as well? I would say its a real possibility, but the fact that Ladd was still conscious after eating that shot from GDR suggests she is hard to get out of there. Both of these fighters also have a tendency to just fall into clinch so I don't expect this to be a range kickboxing match for long - that is something I would think Kunitskaya has a better chance. In grappling, Ladd should make her have a bad time.
Ladd via UD.
Yadong Song vs. Cody Stamann
Another interesting, close match-up. For such a young fighter, Song looks immense, but perhaps Stamann is the more rounded one of the two. Still, Cody was cracked a few times Perez and Song is better at moving, hiding his strikes and faster. So you would expect Song to win this one if it stays standing. Stamann definitely has the ability to win a grappling match though.
Youth and reach being on Song's side, I kinda am leaning towards picking him. So let's go with it.
Song via 2nd round KO.
Rob Font vs. Ricky Simon
Although getting KOd by old Urijah Faber is not a good look, Simon is not just a can. So far he has shown in his UFC career that he is an aggressive, high-pace fighter that is capable in every range. However, this is a tough match-up, cause for my money, Font is one of the better contenders of the division and in his prime right now. This should be set-up for him to get a highlight victory.
Rob Font via 2nd round KO.
Thiago Alves vs. Tim Means
Battle of couple veterans. Neither are hardly shot, just a little shopworn. Means got KOd in his last fight after dominating the match, which is not a good look thinking on his chin. You just can't trust the chin of a guy of that age after taking a KO loss like that, but that said it is too early to proclaim his chin is completely gone - after all, Niko Price hits ridiculously hard.
The problem for Alves is that he is not much of a KO threat in his later career. He is still fundamentally sound, but seems to just have lost a step, and I don't see him winning a plodding kickboxing match with Means, who is much too technical for that and has the range.
Tim Means via UD.
Billy Quarantillo vs. Jacob Kilburn
I don't know man. Kilburn's record looks good until you take a closer look and realize he has lost to anyone any good he has fought. Guy hits hard, that's pretty much it, but he has been KOing .500 journeymen and guys with less than 5 fights. Quarantillo's record looks much stronger in comparison. From the little I saw he also seems very durable, so it would be hard to bank on Kilburn winning this.
I would pick Quarantillo, but seems the site I bet on does not offer the match so never mind.
Bryce Mitchell vs. Matt Sayles
Mitchell seems to have the better footwork and grappling of the two, whereas Sayles will probably have the better in the stand-up. He just doesn't seem too good of an outside fighter so I kinda expect them to come together enough time for Mitchell to work his grappling.
Bryce Mitchell via 3rd round submission.
Joe Solecki vs. Matt Wiman
I am kinda hesitant to pick contender fighters usually, cause they tend to look better against weaker competition. However, Wiman looks not to be on a level of 2019 UFC fighter any more, but rather badly faded after a long lay-off, whereas Solecki absolutely obliterated his opposition and showed very good skill in all ranges. I don't expect Wiman to have a good time here, and I think he should not be fighting any more.
Solecki via 1st round KO.
Mallory Martin vs. Virna Jandiroba
Martin is very rudimentary in the stand-up, but when she grabs a hold of you she usually takes you down, keeps you there and beats you up. Jandiroba is former Invicta champ and was competitive in her UFC debut against Esparza, but he problems were precisely getting taken down repeatedly.
At least here she should be able to get the better of the standup, but the worry is that she ends up losing via ground control even if she is good at escaping those positions. It's a pretty close match-up on paper.
Martin being big underdog she is a clear pick for this one, Martin via UD.
Makhmud Muradov vs. Trevor Smith
It looks like it would be a stand-up affair, and in that Muradov is perhaps the one who is bit better mover and bit faster. It's a close fight but would expect Muradov to do even better than in his debut with full camp.
Muradov via UD.
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