UFC 246 Preview & Predictions

Intro text

Main Event: Conor McGregor vs. Cowboy Cerrone

There could be lot to analyze about this fight, but it all comes down to one factor - that Conor, washed up or not, is a hard hitting guy in his prime, and Cerrone is a 36-year-old guy whose career has been limited by durability issues to begin with. So yeah, obviously this is set up so that Conor could get another knockout to his resume and supposedly become relevant again. 

I am not convinced we will get the best McGregor so at best he is an uncertain pick, but even if he is not the elite fighter he once was, he probably can still hit you hard. Cerrone has an advantage in grappling and endurance, but I don't see him having enough offensive wrestling to really impose that gameplan on Conor nor be enough of a high-pace pressure fighter to really gas Conor out. 

I would hope to be wrong, but Gaethje knocked Cerrone out with relative ease which makes me think that Cerrone is starting to lose his chin. Hope I am wrong and that he can take some hard shots and still keep fighting, but this is always at least 70/30 fight in Conor's favor, with the caveat that Cowboy has many low-percentage ways of winning this and that who knows what kind of Conor shows up.

Conor via 1st round KO.

Co-Main Event: Holly Holm vs. Raquel Pennington

Hard fight to predict. Holly Holm's recent record gets criticized a lot, but when you actually look at it, she has only lost to legends or gotten somewhat harsh decisions, GDR fight in particular. She was competitive against Cyborg, then got hit with a sweet headkick by Nunes. That would have KOd anyone. Holm is 38 and that should mean she is slowing down, and taking that kind of KO might leave her chin compromised permanently. 

But at the same time if Holly has been anything she has always been very consistent fighter, and she looks extremely fit ahead this fight just as always. More importantly, Pennington has not finished a fight since 2014. She is a well-rounded fighter without being spectacular anywhere. She is just a decent close-range fighter who is hard to put away. Her being in her prime gives her some advantage. 

These two of course already fought few years back - then Holly was the one in her prime and Pennington the one who was still up and coming fighter. Holly got a close decision then, and I expect it to be close this time around too. 

It's a close fight but I expect Holly to be able to keep it technical and outscore Pennington from the range. Holly has become very capable at takedown defence so if Nunes did not manage a takedown, I think it is unlikely Pennington will.

Holly by SD again.

Alexey Oleynik vs. Maurice Greene

Oleynik is 42 years old and got completely pulverized in his last fight. He has two KO losses in a row now and is a slow, lumbering stand-up fighter... but he is a complete wizard on the ground, so if he has any chin left at all, he still has ways to win this fight.

Greene could on paper be nightmare match-up for him, a fast, rangy outside fighter... but the thing is, he is not actually that great at maintaining that range. It is not too far to close distance on Greene, and he is also very hittable. While Oleynik is arguably slow, he still packs power at the end of those heavy hands. 

Greene should have the advantage on the feet, but you can't be entirely trusting of him being able to keep it there. I don't think its that far-fetched to imagine that Oleynik grabs hold of him and just pulls guard and submits him. At the same time, Greene might just catch him in the beginning of the fight and drop him - like I said, that last KO Oleynik suffered was a bad one. At his age it is possible something like that leaves your chin permanently gone. 

So essentially this becomes a fight between two guys with clear paths to victory that you just can't trust. It is heavyweight so its basically 50/50. I will go with Greene via 2nd round KO.

Ode Osbourne vs. Brian Kelleher

Osbourne is a blazing fast, promising young fighter with great range for the division. Kelleher is a middle-of-the-road veteran on his way out of the sport. Honestly this is not much different from Kelleher's last match-up with him fighting a good prospect with speed and range over him. It probably ends the same way with him getting hurt and finished. 

Osbourne has the speed and range so it should not be competitive on the feet, but of course Kelleher has some chance if he can wrestlefuck Osbourne. However he does seem to have pretty decent takedown defence fundamentals and ability to be a threat off his back, so I see him surviving any ground threat Kelleher might offer. Kelleher might also make him tired with a grinding match, but again it is hard to see him winning more than just the third round. Osbourne should have enough in him to get at least two rounds if not a fast KO.

Fast KO is my prediction though. Osbourne in the 1st.

Anthony Pettis vs. Diego Ferreira

Stylistically, this is perfect matchup for Ferreira. Pettis always struggles with guys who pressure him and are capable offensive wrestlers. The only thing that Ferreira lacks is a granite chin, which is saying a lot considering he took a lot of hard shots from Taisumov and still kept moving forward. Taisumov did drop him though and Ferreira has been dropped before, so it is definitely possible that Pettis, although not the most powerful, can catch him with something and KO him.

Still I see Ferreira walking Pettis down repeatedly, getting him in clinch and putting on some damage to him, perhaps getting a takedown, and eventually just grinding Pettis out. Think it is unlikely Pettis will win a decision here, so only way he can win is indeed via KO. Submitting Ferreira... again highly unlikely, ground is where Ferreira shines.

Pettis is accurate and was catching Diaz with some hard shots before he tired and became easy to take down, so there definitely is good chance for that showtime moment, but all in all it is more likely Ferreira gets this.

Ferreira via 3rd round submission.

Maycee Barber vs. Roxanne Modafferi

Young, remarkably athletic fighter against aged fighter who was always physically outmatched. That's not to say Roxanne does not have a chance here. She showed particularly in her impressive victory over Antonina Shevchenko that she is very crafty and as far as Barber goes, this is a very big step-up in competition for her despite all the physical advantages she carries here.

Modafferi is a great fight to test the unbeaten Barber. She will for sure try to clinch and grapple Maycee for her life. We will see how well Barber fares against a talented grappler trying to impose that gameplan on her. In the past I have under-estimated Barber but I definitely have to jump on the bandwagon here, her skills are still unproven, but it is obvious that for women's flyweight, she hits exceptionally hard. 

Which is why I am worried that despite all of Roxanne's experience, I think it could get ugly for her, especially if Barber catches her clean early on. The more Roxanne can wear Barber down, the better her chances get and in a decision I think Roxanne might very well win.

Still, Barber by 1st round KO.

Andre Fili vs. Sodiq Yusuff

Both guys are very offensively potent, so I think it will come down to who has better defence and chin. Well Yusuff arguably has the better chin, but Fili on the other hand is defensively the much more responsible fighter. He is also the guy with more high level experience, despite Yusuff being a great prospect as well with some great wins in his record.

So yeah, I feel it is more likely that Fili catches Yusuff with something than vice versa, but don't take that as me being certain with anything. I think it will be a close fight, I just think Fili is still the craftier guy.

Fili via 2nd round KO. 

Nasrat Haqparast vs. Drew Dober

Not a clear fight to predict by any means, but you just kinda feel that Haqparast can make this his fight with his superior footwork, jab and fight IQ. Dober might have advantage if it becomes a physical, grinding matchup, but in technical striking I would slightly give the edge to Haqparast, especially if Dober does not get quick finish.

Dober is usually a fast starter, whereas Haqparast likes to feel his way into the match. That is Dober's best chance, to swarm Haqparast with offense early. Still think its more likely Haqparast just outpoints him.

Haqparast by UD.

Aleksa Camur vs. Justin Ledet

Camur looks like a decent prospect but he is awfully green with only 5 fights on his record and no one of note. The question is how good is Justin Ledet? Yeah, he was unbeaten in the UFC as a heavyweight, but beating only the worst of the worst of UFC heavyweights, then fought twice in light heavyweight and got completely dominated by Rakic and then demolished in 15 seconds by Walker.

Yet those two guys are both now very close to title contention, so it is no wonder he got destroyed by them. I kinda wanna pick Ledet here on basis of more experience, but he just does not seem very good, but then again neither does Camur... but at least the younger fighter has bigger chance of being so much improved that he eases past the older one? It is an extremely uncertain pick, but I will go with Camur for this one.

Camur via UD.

Tim Elliott vs. Askar Askarov

This one is a tough one. Elliot is a scrambly grappler and so is kind of Askarov as well. Elliott probably is the better stand-up fighter though. This one is a toss-up especially since it seems like Elliot might be something of a spent force already.

Askarov is a good fighter but has some bad instincts and I just feel like those are gonna cost him here. Tim Elliot via UD.

Sabina Mazo vs. J.J. Aldrich

Mazo looked great in her last fight, but so did Aldrich too. Aldrich was fighting against more solid opposition. I do feel though that Mazo has a more varied game here and can impose more grappling heavy style if she ends up being dominated in the striking. 

Not one that I am particularly sure of though. Mazo via UD.