UFC Fight Night 166 Preview & Predictions

Alright so I took a loss on last event, here's to not letting it happen again. I actually feel quite confident with a lot of my picks, but that might end up being false confidence.

Main Event: Curtis Blaydes vs. Junior Dos Santos

Blaydes is probably the best wrestler in HW division right now, with his prolific takedown stat proving that much, of course for us to be completely sure he would have to fight DC/Miocic/Jones but from what he have seen, he has just obliterated everyone except Ngannou with his wrestling. That's how he would win this fight as well, just nonstop takedowns, top control and ground and pound.

Junior Dos Santos is not Ngannou level striking threat even in his prime, and you have to admit that by now JDS is bit of a spent force. He is still very good though, still carries a lot of power, and has not completely lost his chin either - it's not like Ngannou put him completely unconscious in their last fight. If he can land the powershot, he can take out anyone, but with his tendency to overcommit to shots, I just see Blaydes having way too easy time of grabbing hold of him. Once it becomes a clinch battle, it is all over for JDS, at least for that round.

So yeah, there is some chance of JDS KO, but I would not say its particularly high. Could JDS play outside kickboxing for 5 rounds with guy as rangy as Blaydes? Honestly would not trust it at all. Most likely outcome is that Blaydes takes him down, gets a GnP TKO or wins at least 3 rounds to get a decision.

Curtis Blaydes via 3rd round TKO.

Co-Main Event: Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Michael Chiesa

RDA went five hard rounds with Leon Edwards in his last match, and although he lost, it is not like he got utterly swept, just was a step behind. That shows to me that even at welterweight, he is still an elite fighter, even if he is past his prime already. He is still a former world champion past his prime, it just would seem that he is undersized as welterweight.

That would be the problem against Chiesa too, even if arguably it is hard to say where he stands skillwise considering he has fought really over-the-hill guys in Sanchez and Condit back-to-back now. Still, at least he did look great in his last fight against Sanchez, he still looks big for the weight class and much healthier at 170. He certainly has the grappling advantage with RDA, and considering how much longer he is than the Brazilian, it is hard to see how RDA keeps this at range. 

Like I said, RDA is still elite fighter, and pretty much certainly is the better striker, but it is very hard to see how he keeps this fight standing. He is not completely outmatched grappling with Chiesa, but I also don't see him having the advantage there either. All things considered, this is a close match where rounds could go in many ways. 

RDA has never been submitted, but neither guy also has KO at welterweight (Chiesa doesn't have one in any weightclass). So all in all it looks highly likely to be a fight that goes full distance. So it will become matter of who gets the rounds. RDA will have the advantage outside, but will also take shots trying to manage the 5.5 inch reach disadvantage. He will get sucked into lot of clinches and then its just matter of if he can stop the takedowns. I believe that some of the time he will, some of the time he won't. 

Either way, this is likely to be scored 29-28 to one or the other guy, and I am leaning towards that guy being Chiesa via UD.

Jordan Espinosa vs. Alex Perez

This fight is very even on paper, although it probably ends up looking very one-sided for whoever wins. Espinosa has 4' reach advantage here, is extremely fleet-footed and fast. His outside striking is very good. 

On the other hand Perez has a very short reach but functional stand-up that he uses to close the distance and get the takedowns. Once he has you down, he keeps you there with heavy top game and ground and pound. 

So this fight could go either way in that regard, certainly Espinosa got immediately subbed in his last fight, but if he recognizes the advantage he has on the feet here, he will make sure to stay outside. Perez is a good pressure-fighter, but he will have to eat some shots to get in. 

I see Espinosa getting the first round, but he will have to run around a lot to maintain the distance. Surely that will start to take its toll in the second which will likely decide the fight. I would expect Perez to get the 3rd round for sure as the clinch will be harder to avoid by then. That is, if he hasn't absorbed too much damage by then. 

I still have a feeling Espinosa will be able to keep the distance enough even in second and gets a close UD. 

Angela Hill vs. Hannah Cifers

Both good fighters with similar styles that is mostly stand-up oriented, but with some opportunistic takedowns mixed in. So I am expecting this to be mostly a kickboxing match and if neither gets completely outgunned, I don't think anyone will pursue clinch and takedowns much.

I just think Hill has a lot of experience advantage here and is generally just step ahead whatever range this fight goes to. I do think it will be competitive and Cifers is good at getting close rounds, but its hard to see her getting rounds here consistently enough for a win. 

Angela Hill by UD.

Jamahal Hill vs. Darko Stosic

Stosic fought against rangy southpaw in his last fight, and would have won a decision had he not had 2 points deducted for groin strikes. I think there will be some groin strikes here too, but what Jamahal Hill loses in terms of range to Stosic's last opponent, he actually gains in terms of composure and fighting skill. So yeah, I don't think Stosic, although a solid guy everywhere, is gonna have a good time in this fight.

Stosic can of course win by blitzing him early, and both guys have power to stop each other, but in all likelyhood Hill will keep the pressure and wear Stosic out later on to get a decision.

Hill via UD.

Bewon Lewis vs. Dequan Townsend

As far as wrestlers go, Lewis is pretty much at the bottom of the potency in UFC LHW division. The thing is, Townsend does not have that great wrestling defence despite having a lot of experience. Still, it's not like Lewis puts together long chain-wrestling sequences or is particularly good on the feet. 

Both guys have power, so it can go either way if they land a solid shot, but as long as they are standing Townsend has the advantage here. Lewis being a young fighter has more potential to look better in this match, and that's what it takes to really put on the kind of showing that will bring him a victory. 

Like I said, Townsend is not very good either, but he might just be able to do enough just like Stewart did if Lewis puts together another lackluster performance. Not a fight I can very confidently pick, cause I feel Townsend has this, but all Lewis needs is a little cardio and urgency to just take every round with wrestling. 

Still, Townsend via 2nd round KO.

Nik Lentz vs. Arnold Allen

Well, Lentz is bit over the hill, but he probably is a bit better than Allen's last opponent, Melendez. So he might give a more competitive match. It still seems like Allen is much the faster fighter here with enough of takedown defence to avoid grappling. It might get ugly.

Allen via 3rd round TKO.

Justine Kish vs. Lucie Pudilova

Well unfortunately only footage of Kish I found is of her shitting herself, so I can't with good heart make a strong prediction here. Pudilova is a young fighter who got put to sleep by Antonina Shevchenko in her last fight, but had her good moments in that fight.

Kish on the other hand has been on the shelf for 2 years, and I just can't imagine it being a good thing. On paper it should be a close fight and since I don't have much to go by, that long break between fights is what sways my opinion towards Pudilova.

Pudilova via UD.

Montel Jackson vs. Felipe Dias Colares

No way Jackson is gonna lose this, is there? Well, that's what I thought initially, considering Jackson has stupid long range for the division and is capable clinch fighter himself. So on the outside Colares is gonna have a bad time, he will struggle to get inside and even if he does get there, I can't see him reliably having better of the clinch exchanges.

However, he does have powerful kicks and those can for sure play a part in this fight. Put a few on them and hurt Jackson, and it might be him initiating the clinch anyway, and who knows what might happen then.

That's not enough to bank on those. Even if Colares can have his moments, I just am not sure if he can sustain it for three rounds.

With odds being so wide though, I will go for Colares via 2nd round TKO.

Sara McMann vs. Lina Lansberg

McMann is another girl who has been on the shelf for almost two years... Loss to Reneau and 39 years of age is not a good look, even if Lansberg is also up there in age. At least Lansberg really looks like a solid MMA fighter now.

Lansberg via UD.

Brett Johns vs. Tony Gravely

Close fight. Gravely has the power advantage and probably is overall better on the feet, but Johns is the better grappler. It will be problem to get a good wrestler like Gravely to the ground and probably he will be smart enough not to mess around with it too much himself. Still, Johns went full distance with Sterling and Munhoz, both of them elite of the division. Compared to that, Gravely is quite unproven.

Gotta go with the more experienced guy in a close fight. Johns via 2nd round submission.

Herbert Burns vs. Nate Landwehr

Tough one to predict cause of the limited tape again, but Burns seems... just not very good overall. Or I dunno, not that bad either, but he tends to either get an opportunistic sub or lose decisions. Even in his contender fight he lost most of it but caught the guy in an armbar and that's all it took. Landwehr on the other hand is M-1 champ who has only been submitted once, but it's not like his game looks too solid either - the guy just eats shots nonstop but has a crazy chin on him.

So yeah, I guess Landwehr will put the volume and pressure on Burns, eat some shots but get the better of the exchanges and if he does survive any submission attempts, he will get the decision, but he might also get subbed any time if he chooses to engage in grappling. 

Landwehr is clearly the more powerful guy of the two so if anyone will get a KO, it should be him.

Landwehr via UD.