UFC 247 Post-Fight Analysis
I have been a bit sick and very busy this week, that's why the post-fight analysis for the last weekend's fight is a bit late. It's good though to give a little time for the emotions to cool down after a night of controversial decisions.
First and third round, for the way I see it, were clearly rounds for Reyes. Fifth round was all Jones. 2nd and 4th could have gone either way. Reyes was aggressive with very high volume on the 2nd, but his flurries largely missed, unlike in 1st and 3rd where he was landing a lot with good power behind it. So I can see 2nd going either way. Fourth Reyes faded clearly, but he was still landing a lot of solid shots. Jones landed a lot in the 4th too, so it was very close.
I don't know if rematch would play out any differently, but I think Reyes did enough to earn another shot immediately. That being said, UFC is likely gonna do some kind of Jones v HW moneyfight next.
As for Valentina's fight, I did not see it either, but I peeked at it, it was just what expected, always love to see Valentina fuck girls up.
Justin Tafa did what UFC hoped he would do, fought much improved fight in his 2nd UFC outing and sent Juan Adams packing from UFC with third back-to-back loss. Adams is pretty much weakest UFC has to offer so matching up very green Tafa will be tricky moving forward, but the guy obviously has power when he lands.
Bektic and Ige had a very back and forth fight, striking was very even but Ige was slightly having the better of it. Bektic dominated grappling perhaps bit more clearly though, but was not urgent enough for the judges to get the nod in a decision. That one could have gone either way, but glad to have gotten my pick right.
Derrick Lewis fought pretty much worst possible fight he could have against Latifi to still be able to win without a finish. It was really terrible, Lewis gave Latifi the clinch over and over with fancy movements like flying knees. Cool when it lands, awful when it leads to clinch and a takedown. He should have kept it simple and kept popping straight punches until Latifi tried to close distance, then just uppercut him to oblivion. And Latifi? This was pretty much as good as he can fight at HW, and still his best contribution was hugging Lewis for his life for few minutes.
Everyone was saying Andrea Lee got robbed against Lauren Murphy but... I don't know to be honest. Like sure, she probably had the volume, but Murphy clearly had much more power in her punches. It was obviously extremely close fight, so should we just stare at numbers regarding total landed, or how do we factor power that it's landing in?
Like if someone gets out landed 60 to 90, but has 1.5x more power, does that make it equal, or do we still weigh volume or the power? That's what makes judging so tricky. 30-27 is pretty goofy, but regardless you can't really blame for that fight scored either way. It wasn't wrong in my eyes, but in the end I picked Murphy so of course it wouldn't be.
Bautista was another pick I got just night, surprising everyone with a finish of Miles Johns and taking his unbeaten record. Domingo Pilarte started strong against Journey Newson, but Newson quickly showed that despite being on the short end of the reach equation, he is no one to be taken lightly and put some career-altering damage on Pilarte.
Morono fought really poorly, standing right in the face of Williams recklessly immediately, paying the price by being KO'd. I get it Morono likes to scrap, but surely a little bit more calculated approach against someone so powerful early on would have been smarter?
Ewell did not beat Martinez, but won on paper. Although it is a bad decision, Martinez has to take a hard look in the mirror too for not pressing his advantage with much more urgency. He had a guy with broken hand manage to outvolume him (even if not outland). Nevermind Ewell's broken hand actually, he is a guy who always fades under pressure anyway. Martinez did not give him that pressure in the 3rd and pays the price with a bad decision. Just because judges got it wrong does not mean he did right either.
Austin Lingo looked absolutely horrible in the first fight, did not look anything like a UFC level guy. Hopefully they don't put him to another fight, this was exactly what I called it, a glorified LFA matchup. At least Zalal looks rounded and has some talent, he might be able to make a run in UFC.
My best pick was Murphy, that surpasses Oezdemir and Chiesa as my biggest single bet win. Weird that thing all those three fights have in common is that they were somewhat controversial decision. Guess I am really good at making money on bad judging... Worst pick was clearly Morono, who just did not show up.
Main Card
I did not see Jones vs. Reyes live due to a blackout. Having seen it play out as it did, I am glad I get to watch it now with emotionally calm mind and with a neutral viewpoint. First things first, the fight went pretty much exactly as I predicted it, with Jones having close striking bout with Reyes but having his clinchwork to fallback on when things got dicey. Still, Reyes managed to almost completely nullify Jones' grappling and the decision in the end was razor-thin - I can see how this ended up controversial cause I can't really make up my mind who won that.First and third round, for the way I see it, were clearly rounds for Reyes. Fifth round was all Jones. 2nd and 4th could have gone either way. Reyes was aggressive with very high volume on the 2nd, but his flurries largely missed, unlike in 1st and 3rd where he was landing a lot with good power behind it. So I can see 2nd going either way. Fourth Reyes faded clearly, but he was still landing a lot of solid shots. Jones landed a lot in the 4th too, so it was very close.
I don't know if rematch would play out any differently, but I think Reyes did enough to earn another shot immediately. That being said, UFC is likely gonna do some kind of Jones v HW moneyfight next.
As for Valentina's fight, I did not see it either, but I peeked at it, it was just what expected, always love to see Valentina fuck girls up.
Justin Tafa did what UFC hoped he would do, fought much improved fight in his 2nd UFC outing and sent Juan Adams packing from UFC with third back-to-back loss. Adams is pretty much weakest UFC has to offer so matching up very green Tafa will be tricky moving forward, but the guy obviously has power when he lands.
Bektic and Ige had a very back and forth fight, striking was very even but Ige was slightly having the better of it. Bektic dominated grappling perhaps bit more clearly though, but was not urgent enough for the judges to get the nod in a decision. That one could have gone either way, but glad to have gotten my pick right.
Derrick Lewis fought pretty much worst possible fight he could have against Latifi to still be able to win without a finish. It was really terrible, Lewis gave Latifi the clinch over and over with fancy movements like flying knees. Cool when it lands, awful when it leads to clinch and a takedown. He should have kept it simple and kept popping straight punches until Latifi tried to close distance, then just uppercut him to oblivion. And Latifi? This was pretty much as good as he can fight at HW, and still his best contribution was hugging Lewis for his life for few minutes.
Prelims
James Krause fought almost the perfect fight against Giles and although he took a battering, he did not get finished. Losing by SD when you are much the smaller guy is very good outcome.Everyone was saying Andrea Lee got robbed against Lauren Murphy but... I don't know to be honest. Like sure, she probably had the volume, but Murphy clearly had much more power in her punches. It was obviously extremely close fight, so should we just stare at numbers regarding total landed, or how do we factor power that it's landing in?
Like if someone gets out landed 60 to 90, but has 1.5x more power, does that make it equal, or do we still weigh volume or the power? That's what makes judging so tricky. 30-27 is pretty goofy, but regardless you can't really blame for that fight scored either way. It wasn't wrong in my eyes, but in the end I picked Murphy so of course it wouldn't be.
Bautista was another pick I got just night, surprising everyone with a finish of Miles Johns and taking his unbeaten record. Domingo Pilarte started strong against Journey Newson, but Newson quickly showed that despite being on the short end of the reach equation, he is no one to be taken lightly and put some career-altering damage on Pilarte.
Morono fought really poorly, standing right in the face of Williams recklessly immediately, paying the price by being KO'd. I get it Morono likes to scrap, but surely a little bit more calculated approach against someone so powerful early on would have been smarter?
Ewell did not beat Martinez, but won on paper. Although it is a bad decision, Martinez has to take a hard look in the mirror too for not pressing his advantage with much more urgency. He had a guy with broken hand manage to outvolume him (even if not outland). Nevermind Ewell's broken hand actually, he is a guy who always fades under pressure anyway. Martinez did not give him that pressure in the 3rd and pays the price with a bad decision. Just because judges got it wrong does not mean he did right either.
Austin Lingo looked absolutely horrible in the first fight, did not look anything like a UFC level guy. Hopefully they don't put him to another fight, this was exactly what I called it, a glorified LFA matchup. At least Zalal looks rounded and has some talent, he might be able to make a run in UFC.
My picks
Both main and co-main obviously right, a big winning night, 4 out of 5 of main card right, and 7 out of 11 total, staying in line with my long-term correct pick rate. In long run of 199 bets since I started this, I still have pro betting level ROI of almost 10 % and I am up 20 of my average bet sizes. Great to get back on winning ways after couple of rougher events.My best pick was Murphy, that surpasses Oezdemir and Chiesa as my biggest single bet win. Weird that thing all those three fights have in common is that they were somewhat controversial decision. Guess I am really good at making money on bad judging... Worst pick was clearly Morono, who just did not show up.
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