UFC 247 Preview & Predictions
This weekend's fight card lacks a little depth and as the title fights on the card feature dominant champions, its not on the paper most exciting one. The question is, do the large underdog challengers have any chance?
At the same time though, Jones never really seemed to get out of 2nd gear. Which just perfectly demonstrates that while he is human, he is so tough to beat even if he never seems to really get going. That's just down to the tricky combination of extreme athleticism, ridiculous reach and great grappling. In the outside range, you are in a desperate reach disadvantage. If you get inside, Jones will slice you with elbows or grab hold of you and clinchfuck you to death.
On top of all that he has great chin too on top of good defence, and all that means there is very limited chance of even flash KOs happening. Simply put, Jones has no clear weakness and indeed broke my complete rating system being so far above anyone else. So all I will say is that Reyes will have his work cut out to him. Reyes is no small man either, but will still find himself at unusual situation of 7.5 inch reach advantage.
In many ways this is like most of Jon's fights. Reyes has a chance at his strength, which would be in the standup. I would say they are about even in that, but even if Reyes was the better guy, that would be offset by the reach. Even if he fights the perfect fight and stays on the outside for five rounds, it would still be at best close decision like what happened with Santos.
If he fails to control the range and ends up in clinches or grappling, he will get destroyed by Jon. Jon will fight smart, fight cautious, but the best outcome here for us is for it to be a close stand-up war. There's small chance that Reyes clips him hard enough to drop him, but that's not something I would trust on. Even if Jon gets hurt he always has that back-up option to grapple more.
So Jones by 4th round submission.
I see nothing in Chookagian that is even remotely competitive with Chookagian. This will be another massacre, just hope Valentina really goes for it this time instead of just playing it safe.
Valentina via UD.
Juan Adams vs. Justin Tafa
Great, low-level heavyweights this far up on the card. Obviously UFC believes Tafa could be a star considering they feed him one of the worst HWs of the division and put him so high up on the card. But this could backfire. Obviously Tafa is offensively very potent, but defensively suspect and got completely flatlined in his last fight.
In terms of experience Tafa is still very raw. Adams is not super experienced either and just isn't very good overall, but he does have decent wrestling at least and he is a huge guy, so even if he can't put a hurting on Tafa, he might be able to grab hold of him and keep him down enough to get a decision. It is either that, or Tafa lands that huge shot and gets a KO.
Adams via UD.
Mirsad Bektic vs. Dan Ige
Interesting matchup. Bektic is the more physically talented and powerful one, but Ige makes good use of his reach and speed. Very slick guy. Although Ige is at power disadvantage, he has enough pop in his shots to test Bektic's chin.
Both of these guys are prospects still at least couple of years away from their prime, but Bektic has been fighting higher level competition already longer and hence has already two KO losses to show for it. So his chin has been cracked couple of times already. Ige's two losses are both decisions, he has never been finished, but on the other hand he has not fought the kind of guys Bektic has.
Ige has tendency to get reversed especially when he gets tired, and at least against Aguilar he did fade a bit towards the end. Still, he is very technical and can hurt you even late on in matches. As for Bektic, there is no shame in getting KOd by a guy as powerful as Emmett, but at the same time it was just a sort of a jab that dropped him, one that he ought to have seen coming. That worries me.
I think Bektic is still more likely to KO Ige, but Ige is very good at avoiding opponent's power and excellent counter-striker. So I don't think we are highly likely to see KO either way, instead it will likely to be a very back-and-forth three round fight. Grappling might turn out the difference maker, on standup I would give slight edge to Ige. Its a very close fight though, in three rounders so little things might tilt the decision to one way or the other.
Ige via Split Decision.
Derrick Lewis vs. Ilir Latifi
Everything about this fight points to a Lewis win. Lewis is much longer, much naturally bigger guy, had a great performance last time and still looks to be improving as a fighter. Latifi had height problems already at LHW, well in HW he is just a midget.
The biggest problem for Latifi though is just that he had no cardio even at LHW, so how will it look with him even more ballooned up at heavyweight? I wouldn't have believed ever to come across a situation where Derrick Lewis could actually put a pace on someone to gas them out, but here it is. Lewis is much the better conditioned one of the two. Plus he has a great chin.
Latifi on the other hand got completely put unconscious in his last fight. For his longevity he would have wished ref stopped it bit sooner, but as it was it might affect his ability to take a shot, and you dont take much harder shots than the ones Black Beast dishes out.
So yeah, Latifi has hardly any ways to win this. I guess tiny percentage Latifi lands a sledgehammer and actually puts Lewis out? Bit higher percentage that he lands early takedowns 1st and 2nd round and top controls to win the rounds and then survives the third for a decision. In all likelyhood Lewis will finish him though and it will probably be the end of his UFC career as well.
Lewis via 1st round KO.
Trevin Giles vs. James Krause
This is one of those times I am glad I leave these previews to the last minute. So the story is that Krause, a natural welterweight, just happened to be in the building cause he is cornering another guy and stepped in after Giles' original opponent Arroyo had to pull out after weigh-in due to being hospitalized.
It's definitely a ballsy move from Krause to take the fight, as Giles is a big middleweight who used to fight at light heavyweight, and Krause on the other hand has been fighting even lightweights among his current win streak. It's pretty safe to say Giles has at least 20 pounds on him, probably more like 30-40 pounds.
Giles is a competent grappler and has some decent power to put out even bigger guys, so only way Krause is winning by putting on a fast pace and outpointing him from range. To that end, there is one advantage Krause has - he is not losing anything to Giles in terms of reach, and he for sure as a smaller guy has the better footwork and speed.
So I would not say its outside the realm of possibilities that Krause can just stick and move. It's just likely that at some point Giles grabs hold of him and gets the takedowns to get rounds or catches him with the kind of shot guy of that size just can't take.
I will be rooting for James, but the realities of size and having no camp are not on his size. It's not impossible though. Unfortunately this pick won't "count" since as usual for late replacements, my betting site does not list this fight.
Andrea Lee vs. Lauren Murphy
Lee might have lost her last fight against Calderwood, but it was very competitive fight and showed that she is already at a young age one of flyweight's elite fighters. Murphy on the other hand is getting up there in age, but you will be tough pressed to find more powerful and durable athlete in women's flyweight than her.
Lee will definitely have the speed and the volume on her side, but if she goes to trade a lot with Murphy she will get tagged up and I am not entirely convinced her takedown defence either will hold up. For as long as it stays standing, I expect her to touch up Murphy and kick the shit out of her leg. It's only a matter of time though before she gets taken down, pressed against the cage in an ugly clinch or caught with a huge shot that drops her.
So expect it to be a very back and forth fight with both women having clear avenues for winning. Without a doubt it will be a very tough test for Lee. Odds are ridiculously lopsided for Lee, it's easy to see how Murphy could win it, so I will be going for Murphy via 2nd round TKO.
Alex Morono vs. Kalinn Williams
Well there isn't much out there of Kalinn Williams but he seems like a decent, powerful regional fighter that is still young and has potential to go far. Morono is a solid UFC-level fighter, perfect gatekeeper for these young guys, does not seem like the kind of athlete that would ever bother the top of the rankings but still a tough guy for anyone to beat.
Hence he is riding a three fight winning streak into this. It seems like Morono would have the advantage on the feet as far as speed and technique goes. Williams is obviously the more powerful one, but seems a bit slow and probably not good enough to keep on a sustained wrestling attack.
Not a fight you can be very certain of either way, but just on experience Morono should have this in the bag. Morono via UD.
Miles Johns vs. Mario Bautista
I kinda don't feel any kind of clarity as to how this fight could go. Johns seems the more powerful one and one with some tendency to gas out, especially if Bautista comes for a war like in his fight against Son. On the other hand, if he takes the kind of shots Son dished out from Johns, he is unlikely to stay conscious.
I do think Bautista has overall slight advantage on the feet, but he lacks power to get the finish. Johns is more likely for my money to get a KO, and more likely to win the grappling battle for rounds. That said, Bautista does seem to have decent takedown defence and decent scrambles. So in the end, I don't feel sure about this.
Fuck it, Bautista with UD.
Domingo Pilarte vs. Journey Newson
Newson looks like a very solid fighter with some good submission skills and rock solid chin. He isn't even remarkably short or anything, but had his debut against much longer guy and here again is facing 6 inch reach advantage due to some unfortunate matchmaking.
Pilarte showed in his loss against Colares that he is a decent fighter as well, he only lost the decision because of ending up on the losing end of some scrambles.
Skill for skill it seems like there is not much to separate these guys, but you would think the size will be a problem for Newson again. I expect it to be a close fight, but Pilarte via UD.
Andre Ewell vs. Jonathan Martinez
Ewell is really fast and rangy, and if he gets his type of fight, he can keep going. But if you do push him and get him fight a fight where he is not comfortable, he gasses fast and won't have the kind of volume to make use of his speed and reach.
Overall Martinez is the better, more well-rounded fighter and as he is still young, he has lot of potential still to improve. Ewell has advantage in boxing, Martinez perhaps everywhere else. Martinez seems the type to be content to just strike but he would be smart to force some clinch especially early on to wear on Ewell to get rid of some of that speed.
Martinez is very hittable though, and Ewell has the power to finish him fast, so this is not an easy fight to predict. I just feel like Ewell is the less reliable guy here.
Still, Ewell with 1st round KO.
Austin Lingo vs. Youssef Zalal
So I watched Lingo's last two fights and that totals for whopping 50 seconds of tape. The guy is 7-0 with 5 finishes in under 2:30, and if he did not get it done in half a round, then he went to a decision. Obviously a guy with very good finishing skills and power. As for Zalal, he isn't really UFC level guy to test him either, just like Lingo he was most recently fighting in LFA so essentially this is a glorified LFA fight.
I didn't find much tape on Zalal either but the guy seems very hittable but has also good potential for finishing. So my prediction is very unreliable, but based on my less than two minute assessment, Lingo has the advantage in both power and fundamentals here and hence will get the 1st round KO.
Main Event: Jon Jones vs. Dominick Reyes
So I rewatched Jones v Santos and... I think Santos legit won that fight. I mean if I score that as a fight, Santos was definitely more compromised in the end, but if I actually score it round by round, Santos had it 3-2. There were couple of really tight rounds though.At the same time though, Jones never really seemed to get out of 2nd gear. Which just perfectly demonstrates that while he is human, he is so tough to beat even if he never seems to really get going. That's just down to the tricky combination of extreme athleticism, ridiculous reach and great grappling. In the outside range, you are in a desperate reach disadvantage. If you get inside, Jones will slice you with elbows or grab hold of you and clinchfuck you to death.
On top of all that he has great chin too on top of good defence, and all that means there is very limited chance of even flash KOs happening. Simply put, Jones has no clear weakness and indeed broke my complete rating system being so far above anyone else. So all I will say is that Reyes will have his work cut out to him. Reyes is no small man either, but will still find himself at unusual situation of 7.5 inch reach advantage.
In many ways this is like most of Jon's fights. Reyes has a chance at his strength, which would be in the standup. I would say they are about even in that, but even if Reyes was the better guy, that would be offset by the reach. Even if he fights the perfect fight and stays on the outside for five rounds, it would still be at best close decision like what happened with Santos.
If he fails to control the range and ends up in clinches or grappling, he will get destroyed by Jon. Jon will fight smart, fight cautious, but the best outcome here for us is for it to be a close stand-up war. There's small chance that Reyes clips him hard enough to drop him, but that's not something I would trust on. Even if Jon gets hurt he always has that back-up option to grapple more.
So Jones by 4th round submission.
Co-Main Event: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Katlyn Chookagian
Speaking of another fighter who completely breaks the scale, there's Valentina. She is so far above everyone in the division that it's almost pointless to write anything. Valentina made easy work of Jessica Eye, who fought to a split decision win against Chookagian not too long ago. Perhaps Chookagian has improved since, but probably not to a such a big degree that she would be significantly better fighter than Eye is.I see nothing in Chookagian that is even remotely competitive with Chookagian. This will be another massacre, just hope Valentina really goes for it this time instead of just playing it safe.
Valentina via UD.
Juan Adams vs. Justin Tafa
Great, low-level heavyweights this far up on the card. Obviously UFC believes Tafa could be a star considering they feed him one of the worst HWs of the division and put him so high up on the card. But this could backfire. Obviously Tafa is offensively very potent, but defensively suspect and got completely flatlined in his last fight.
In terms of experience Tafa is still very raw. Adams is not super experienced either and just isn't very good overall, but he does have decent wrestling at least and he is a huge guy, so even if he can't put a hurting on Tafa, he might be able to grab hold of him and keep him down enough to get a decision. It is either that, or Tafa lands that huge shot and gets a KO.
Adams via UD.
Mirsad Bektic vs. Dan Ige
Interesting matchup. Bektic is the more physically talented and powerful one, but Ige makes good use of his reach and speed. Very slick guy. Although Ige is at power disadvantage, he has enough pop in his shots to test Bektic's chin.
Both of these guys are prospects still at least couple of years away from their prime, but Bektic has been fighting higher level competition already longer and hence has already two KO losses to show for it. So his chin has been cracked couple of times already. Ige's two losses are both decisions, he has never been finished, but on the other hand he has not fought the kind of guys Bektic has.
Ige has tendency to get reversed especially when he gets tired, and at least against Aguilar he did fade a bit towards the end. Still, he is very technical and can hurt you even late on in matches. As for Bektic, there is no shame in getting KOd by a guy as powerful as Emmett, but at the same time it was just a sort of a jab that dropped him, one that he ought to have seen coming. That worries me.
I think Bektic is still more likely to KO Ige, but Ige is very good at avoiding opponent's power and excellent counter-striker. So I don't think we are highly likely to see KO either way, instead it will likely to be a very back-and-forth three round fight. Grappling might turn out the difference maker, on standup I would give slight edge to Ige. Its a very close fight though, in three rounders so little things might tilt the decision to one way or the other.
Ige via Split Decision.
Derrick Lewis vs. Ilir Latifi
Everything about this fight points to a Lewis win. Lewis is much longer, much naturally bigger guy, had a great performance last time and still looks to be improving as a fighter. Latifi had height problems already at LHW, well in HW he is just a midget.
The biggest problem for Latifi though is just that he had no cardio even at LHW, so how will it look with him even more ballooned up at heavyweight? I wouldn't have believed ever to come across a situation where Derrick Lewis could actually put a pace on someone to gas them out, but here it is. Lewis is much the better conditioned one of the two. Plus he has a great chin.
Latifi on the other hand got completely put unconscious in his last fight. For his longevity he would have wished ref stopped it bit sooner, but as it was it might affect his ability to take a shot, and you dont take much harder shots than the ones Black Beast dishes out.
So yeah, Latifi has hardly any ways to win this. I guess tiny percentage Latifi lands a sledgehammer and actually puts Lewis out? Bit higher percentage that he lands early takedowns 1st and 2nd round and top controls to win the rounds and then survives the third for a decision. In all likelyhood Lewis will finish him though and it will probably be the end of his UFC career as well.
Lewis via 1st round KO.
Trevin Giles vs. James Krause
This is one of those times I am glad I leave these previews to the last minute. So the story is that Krause, a natural welterweight, just happened to be in the building cause he is cornering another guy and stepped in after Giles' original opponent Arroyo had to pull out after weigh-in due to being hospitalized.
It's definitely a ballsy move from Krause to take the fight, as Giles is a big middleweight who used to fight at light heavyweight, and Krause on the other hand has been fighting even lightweights among his current win streak. It's pretty safe to say Giles has at least 20 pounds on him, probably more like 30-40 pounds.
Giles is a competent grappler and has some decent power to put out even bigger guys, so only way Krause is winning by putting on a fast pace and outpointing him from range. To that end, there is one advantage Krause has - he is not losing anything to Giles in terms of reach, and he for sure as a smaller guy has the better footwork and speed.
So I would not say its outside the realm of possibilities that Krause can just stick and move. It's just likely that at some point Giles grabs hold of him and gets the takedowns to get rounds or catches him with the kind of shot guy of that size just can't take.
I will be rooting for James, but the realities of size and having no camp are not on his size. It's not impossible though. Unfortunately this pick won't "count" since as usual for late replacements, my betting site does not list this fight.
Andrea Lee vs. Lauren Murphy
Lee might have lost her last fight against Calderwood, but it was very competitive fight and showed that she is already at a young age one of flyweight's elite fighters. Murphy on the other hand is getting up there in age, but you will be tough pressed to find more powerful and durable athlete in women's flyweight than her.
Lee will definitely have the speed and the volume on her side, but if she goes to trade a lot with Murphy she will get tagged up and I am not entirely convinced her takedown defence either will hold up. For as long as it stays standing, I expect her to touch up Murphy and kick the shit out of her leg. It's only a matter of time though before she gets taken down, pressed against the cage in an ugly clinch or caught with a huge shot that drops her.
So expect it to be a very back and forth fight with both women having clear avenues for winning. Without a doubt it will be a very tough test for Lee. Odds are ridiculously lopsided for Lee, it's easy to see how Murphy could win it, so I will be going for Murphy via 2nd round TKO.
Alex Morono vs. Kalinn Williams
Well there isn't much out there of Kalinn Williams but he seems like a decent, powerful regional fighter that is still young and has potential to go far. Morono is a solid UFC-level fighter, perfect gatekeeper for these young guys, does not seem like the kind of athlete that would ever bother the top of the rankings but still a tough guy for anyone to beat.
Hence he is riding a three fight winning streak into this. It seems like Morono would have the advantage on the feet as far as speed and technique goes. Williams is obviously the more powerful one, but seems a bit slow and probably not good enough to keep on a sustained wrestling attack.
Not a fight you can be very certain of either way, but just on experience Morono should have this in the bag. Morono via UD.
Miles Johns vs. Mario Bautista
I kinda don't feel any kind of clarity as to how this fight could go. Johns seems the more powerful one and one with some tendency to gas out, especially if Bautista comes for a war like in his fight against Son. On the other hand, if he takes the kind of shots Son dished out from Johns, he is unlikely to stay conscious.
I do think Bautista has overall slight advantage on the feet, but he lacks power to get the finish. Johns is more likely for my money to get a KO, and more likely to win the grappling battle for rounds. That said, Bautista does seem to have decent takedown defence and decent scrambles. So in the end, I don't feel sure about this.
Fuck it, Bautista with UD.
Domingo Pilarte vs. Journey Newson
Newson looks like a very solid fighter with some good submission skills and rock solid chin. He isn't even remarkably short or anything, but had his debut against much longer guy and here again is facing 6 inch reach advantage due to some unfortunate matchmaking.
Pilarte showed in his loss against Colares that he is a decent fighter as well, he only lost the decision because of ending up on the losing end of some scrambles.
Skill for skill it seems like there is not much to separate these guys, but you would think the size will be a problem for Newson again. I expect it to be a close fight, but Pilarte via UD.
Andre Ewell vs. Jonathan Martinez
Ewell is really fast and rangy, and if he gets his type of fight, he can keep going. But if you do push him and get him fight a fight where he is not comfortable, he gasses fast and won't have the kind of volume to make use of his speed and reach.
Overall Martinez is the better, more well-rounded fighter and as he is still young, he has lot of potential still to improve. Ewell has advantage in boxing, Martinez perhaps everywhere else. Martinez seems the type to be content to just strike but he would be smart to force some clinch especially early on to wear on Ewell to get rid of some of that speed.
Martinez is very hittable though, and Ewell has the power to finish him fast, so this is not an easy fight to predict. I just feel like Ewell is the less reliable guy here.
Still, Ewell with 1st round KO.
Austin Lingo vs. Youssef Zalal
So I watched Lingo's last two fights and that totals for whopping 50 seconds of tape. The guy is 7-0 with 5 finishes in under 2:30, and if he did not get it done in half a round, then he went to a decision. Obviously a guy with very good finishing skills and power. As for Zalal, he isn't really UFC level guy to test him either, just like Lingo he was most recently fighting in LFA so essentially this is a glorified LFA fight.
I didn't find much tape on Zalal either but the guy seems very hittable but has also good potential for finishing. So my prediction is very unreliable, but based on my less than two minute assessment, Lingo has the advantage in both power and fundamentals here and hence will get the 1st round KO.
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