UFC Fight Night 168 Preview & Predictions
Some pretty clear picks here, but also lot of 50/50 fights. Let's get into it.
Main Event: Paul Felder vs. Dan Hooker
Exciting fight for the main event. I wrote on a Funny MMA comment that MMA Math would dictate that Felder has it, since he had back-and-forth war with Barboza, whereas Barboza absolutely massacred Hooker. Of course, realistically speaking it is not that simple. By that logic you could point at Hooker KOing James Vick, whereas it took Felder until decision to beat Vick.
So in the end, I see this as a very close fight. They will both damage each others legs with kicks and Felder has some good counter game, but he will likely absorb lot of shots to the lead leg. Felder is also better at pressuring than Al Iaquinta is. Still, his style plays into Hooker's hands. Hooker will keep stepping backwards, angling and sniping those sharp counters.
In clinch, these guys are pretty even and if Felder goes takedown happy, Hooker has lot of crafty submission attempts. In lot of ways the two cancel each other. Felder will struggle to close the distance, but Hooker won't have it all his way on the outside range. So I expect them both to take a lot of damage and for it to be an absolute war. In that regard, Hooker's youth would work to his favor. Still both of these guys have good chins so it's hard to see a finish either.
Hooker via 4th round TKO.
Hooker via 4th round TKO.
Co-Main Event: Jim Crute vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
On paper, this seems a pretty close fight, and sure both guys have ways to win - Crute obviously with his huge power, and Oleksiejczuk with his tremendous pace. Oleksiejczuk's last loss was more of an accident, he was putting on an absolute domination on Ovince St. Preux, whereas, Jim Crute just got outclassed by Misha Cirkunov. Both of their opponents were savvy gatekeeper veterans, but Michal looked much the better fighter.
So while its possible that Crute finds his counter and KOs Oleksiejczuk, I lean towards him just drowning into his relentless pace.
Oleksiejzczuk via 3rd round TKO.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Xiaonan Yan
After having taken three losses in a row, it is finally time for a stepdown in competition for Karolina. Yes, she is obviously past her prime, but how much past it? All her fights have been against top contenders of the division, whereas Xiaonan Yan represents level slightly below the top.
That's not to say the Chinese fighter is bad, just a little rough around the edges and not that experienced yet in terms of high level competition. She did beat Angela Hill though - but was saved by the bell to do so and barely scraped a decision after Hill faded from the committed sub attempt. Still, the fact that she was competitive shows that she definitely has a chance here.
Yan has good power and throws a lot of volume of strikes, and Karolina liked to keep walking into range without much of a defence. So yeah, Karolina will absorb a lot of damage. Can she take it? She is getting up there in age and it is all starting to accumulate. If she can though, she just might be able to wear Yan out. Definitely Karolina needs to engage a lot in the clinch, if they just keep exchanging I see it going bad for her.
Anyway, my hunch is that will be the final time we see Karolina in there and this will wake her up that it's time to call it quits.
Yan via 2nd round KO.
Ben Sosoli vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima
De Lima has this is the clinch and grappling. Don't know really how strong takedown defence Sosoli has as the previous fight did not show much grappling, but if its as bad as his offensive wrestling he is gonna be in for a long night here. He has a way to win this by connecting a hard shot or by wearing De Lima out on the feet, but I don't really believe in either happening.
De Lima via 2nd round submission.
Magomed Mustafaev vs. Brad Riddell
Man what a match we have in our hands here. Mustafaev really put himself on everyone's radar by beating the very renowned Fiziev with first round TKO in his last fight, and still his only UFC loss is against Kevin Lee who is amongst the top contenders now. Brad Riddell on the other hand is one of City Kickboxing's top products, with lethal, explosive striking as well.
This one could go either way. I feel like Mustafaev has the advantage on the outside range, but Riddell inside. As for grappling, it's anyone's guess. Riddell might be kickboxer in his background, but he has good takedown defence and scrambles. Still, it's unlikely Mustafaev pursues takedowns anyway unless he gets hurt. So we probably see a vicious standup war that might go either way. It's a matchup between two absolute studs so anything might happen.
I am leaning towards the Russian in this one. Mustafaev via 1st round KO.
Zubaira Tukhugov vs. Kevin Aguilar
Zubaira the better grappler, Aguilar probably has the edge on the feet. Aguilar lost to Ige primarily in footwork and takedowns, which does not bode well for this matchup. Zubaira could very well catch him on the feet with something, but more likely to be able to close the distance and clinch up Aguilar.
On the other hand, you know Zubaira is gonna be coming in for you, so all you need to do is plant your feet and counter. Aguilar could easily catch him coming in as the guy with arguably the better hands. Kevin has the generally better record and has fought tougher competition. So I am teetering right on the edge with this one. You feel that if the fight goes long, Zubaira will be able to get some takedowns. It might very well not go long though, if Aguilar finds his range and power early.
Zubaira via UD.
Joshua Culibao vs. Jalin Turner
Turner has all the physical advantages here, but at the same time he is a very unreliable pick. Ridiculous 77 inch reach at lightweight means he will be hard to reach and is about as big of a guy as there is on 155, he must cut a ton of weight. He is powerful and fast, but has a tendency to put on a plodding pace, not really fully utilize his reach, and to get caught with shots. He is more offense and defense generally speaking, but still doesn't output enough to really pull it off.
The kid is still young though, and if he could rectify those issues, he could be a legit contender. Anyway, Culibao is not a big featherweight, and now is fighting up a weightclass. He is unbeaten and seems a solid regional with no gaping holes in his game. Could he put together the kind of gameplan to beat Turner? Honestly, I think he could. I don't know if he can pull off the kind of chain-wrestling approach that would truly give reliable victories against Turner, but for sure he can catch him with a hard shot.
It will be tricky though. You know my heart is always for these smaller guys in these matches of big physical disparity. Still, Jalin Turner via 1st round KO.
Jake Matthews vs. Emil Meek
This is one of the fights hidden deep into the card that really salivate me. But... has Meek corrected his mistakes in 1.5 years since his last fight? I can understand that the champ dominates you in the clinch and wrestling, but then you go against next guy who is coming off a long layoff, and he just takes you down immediately in first two rounds and clinches to survive the last... that just shows you don't have much of a defense against wrestling.
Wrestling is something Matthews might not be a specialist in, but definitely something he can do. So if Meek has not spend that time on the break wrestling for his life, I don't see this ending well for him. Of course the guy is ridiculously strong, has one of the best physiques in UFC, and can inflict damage whenever he gets his hands on you. If that time is just 10 seconds at start of each round though, I can't bank on him getting that KO though.
That all being said, Matthews did not look particularly great in the plodding kickboxing match he got a point victory in his last fight. Fighting that style would not go well for him against Meek. It would play right into Meek's strengths. The blueprint for beating him is laid out there, Matthews would do well to follow it.
I am gonna presume that's what happens and go with Matthews via UD.
Callan Potter vs. Kenan Song
I feel like Potter can take Song down, but the problem for him is that he is not very good at keeping those positions. Song will reverse positions and get up, and then it is just a matter of time before Song connects hard enough to knock Potter out. Potter is up there in age, has dodgy defense at best, and his chin has been cracked before.
Song via 1st round KO.
Kai Kara-France vs. Tyson Nam
Nam put in a respectable performance against Pettis, he surely is seasoned pro, but he is just not the top of the division and just like Pettis, Kara-France is at least near that caliber. Anyone has a puncher's chance, but Kara-France should be too slick here.
Kara-France via UD.
Konklak Suphisara vs. Angela Hill
Obviously I want Loma Lookbonmee to win as she is a pretty much pure Muay Thai fighter with terrific clinch. However, she is always at a size disadvantage and although I do think she can have better of Hill in close range, despite Angela being a good clincher herself, she will struggle at range and get caught with a lot of shots.
So I cannot pick Loma with good heart here, but I do hope she manages to pull it off. We do know he has kept building more strength to be at a less of a disadvantage.
Hill via UD.
Shana Dobson vs. Priscila Cachoeira
Not a single UFC win between these two, so someone is for sure being cut after this fight, probably both if it's not an exciting fight. Neither is exactly young, so they cannot be viewed as prospects either. So it's time to perform or its over.
Think it will be an ugly fight, not feeling strongly for either, but probably Priscila wears Dobson out after absorbing lot of damage, or takes her down and controls her on the mat. This is as bottom of the barrel as it gets, two of the worst fighters in UFC's shallowest division.
Cachoeira via UD.
Ben Sosoli vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima
De Lima has this is the clinch and grappling. Don't know really how strong takedown defence Sosoli has as the previous fight did not show much grappling, but if its as bad as his offensive wrestling he is gonna be in for a long night here. He has a way to win this by connecting a hard shot or by wearing De Lima out on the feet, but I don't really believe in either happening.
De Lima via 2nd round submission.
Magomed Mustafaev vs. Brad Riddell
Man what a match we have in our hands here. Mustafaev really put himself on everyone's radar by beating the very renowned Fiziev with first round TKO in his last fight, and still his only UFC loss is against Kevin Lee who is amongst the top contenders now. Brad Riddell on the other hand is one of City Kickboxing's top products, with lethal, explosive striking as well.
This one could go either way. I feel like Mustafaev has the advantage on the outside range, but Riddell inside. As for grappling, it's anyone's guess. Riddell might be kickboxer in his background, but he has good takedown defence and scrambles. Still, it's unlikely Mustafaev pursues takedowns anyway unless he gets hurt. So we probably see a vicious standup war that might go either way. It's a matchup between two absolute studs so anything might happen.
I am leaning towards the Russian in this one. Mustafaev via 1st round KO.
Zubaira Tukhugov vs. Kevin Aguilar
Zubaira the better grappler, Aguilar probably has the edge on the feet. Aguilar lost to Ige primarily in footwork and takedowns, which does not bode well for this matchup. Zubaira could very well catch him on the feet with something, but more likely to be able to close the distance and clinch up Aguilar.
On the other hand, you know Zubaira is gonna be coming in for you, so all you need to do is plant your feet and counter. Aguilar could easily catch him coming in as the guy with arguably the better hands. Kevin has the generally better record and has fought tougher competition. So I am teetering right on the edge with this one. You feel that if the fight goes long, Zubaira will be able to get some takedowns. It might very well not go long though, if Aguilar finds his range and power early.
Zubaira via UD.
Joshua Culibao vs. Jalin Turner
Turner has all the physical advantages here, but at the same time he is a very unreliable pick. Ridiculous 77 inch reach at lightweight means he will be hard to reach and is about as big of a guy as there is on 155, he must cut a ton of weight. He is powerful and fast, but has a tendency to put on a plodding pace, not really fully utilize his reach, and to get caught with shots. He is more offense and defense generally speaking, but still doesn't output enough to really pull it off.
The kid is still young though, and if he could rectify those issues, he could be a legit contender. Anyway, Culibao is not a big featherweight, and now is fighting up a weightclass. He is unbeaten and seems a solid regional with no gaping holes in his game. Could he put together the kind of gameplan to beat Turner? Honestly, I think he could. I don't know if he can pull off the kind of chain-wrestling approach that would truly give reliable victories against Turner, but for sure he can catch him with a hard shot.
It will be tricky though. You know my heart is always for these smaller guys in these matches of big physical disparity. Still, Jalin Turner via 1st round KO.
Jake Matthews vs. Emil Meek
This is one of the fights hidden deep into the card that really salivate me. But... has Meek corrected his mistakes in 1.5 years since his last fight? I can understand that the champ dominates you in the clinch and wrestling, but then you go against next guy who is coming off a long layoff, and he just takes you down immediately in first two rounds and clinches to survive the last... that just shows you don't have much of a defense against wrestling.
Wrestling is something Matthews might not be a specialist in, but definitely something he can do. So if Meek has not spend that time on the break wrestling for his life, I don't see this ending well for him. Of course the guy is ridiculously strong, has one of the best physiques in UFC, and can inflict damage whenever he gets his hands on you. If that time is just 10 seconds at start of each round though, I can't bank on him getting that KO though.
That all being said, Matthews did not look particularly great in the plodding kickboxing match he got a point victory in his last fight. Fighting that style would not go well for him against Meek. It would play right into Meek's strengths. The blueprint for beating him is laid out there, Matthews would do well to follow it.
I am gonna presume that's what happens and go with Matthews via UD.
Callan Potter vs. Kenan Song
I feel like Potter can take Song down, but the problem for him is that he is not very good at keeping those positions. Song will reverse positions and get up, and then it is just a matter of time before Song connects hard enough to knock Potter out. Potter is up there in age, has dodgy defense at best, and his chin has been cracked before.
Song via 1st round KO.
Kai Kara-France vs. Tyson Nam
Nam put in a respectable performance against Pettis, he surely is seasoned pro, but he is just not the top of the division and just like Pettis, Kara-France is at least near that caliber. Anyone has a puncher's chance, but Kara-France should be too slick here.
Kara-France via UD.
Konklak Suphisara vs. Angela Hill
Obviously I want Loma Lookbonmee to win as she is a pretty much pure Muay Thai fighter with terrific clinch. However, she is always at a size disadvantage and although I do think she can have better of Hill in close range, despite Angela being a good clincher herself, she will struggle at range and get caught with a lot of shots.
So I cannot pick Loma with good heart here, but I do hope she manages to pull it off. We do know he has kept building more strength to be at a less of a disadvantage.
Hill via UD.
Shana Dobson vs. Priscila Cachoeira
Not a single UFC win between these two, so someone is for sure being cut after this fight, probably both if it's not an exciting fight. Neither is exactly young, so they cannot be viewed as prospects either. So it's time to perform or its over.
Think it will be an ugly fight, not feeling strongly for either, but probably Priscila wears Dobson out after absorbing lot of damage, or takes her down and controls her on the mat. This is as bottom of the barrel as it gets, two of the worst fighters in UFC's shallowest division.
Cachoeira via UD.
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