UFC Fight Night 169 Preview & Predictions

Joseph Benavidez vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

My initial response to this fight was that no way Benavidez wins this, especially considering Figueiredo missed weight. Yes, most people might think he is depleted, I just think he just is huge cause he looked ripped. So he is bigger, packs a ton of punch and has three inches of reach over Benavidez.

It is too simplistic way to see it. Obviously Benavidez can do what Formiga did and just ride the storm out with Figueiredo - control the distance, grapple at times, etc. simply stay out of danger. Problem is Figueiredo, although not the most intelligent fighter generally speaking, probably has learned something since that Formiga fight.

That being said, he did not look great in that Tim Elliot fight, but who looks good against him? Deiveson still finished him in first round. Still, it would be hard to pick him against the overall better fighter that is Benavidez. Benavidez has only ever been knocked out once, by DJ. So definitely not straightforward pick.

Benavidez is getting up there in age, which always affects chin a little, and he was getting tagged by Formiga. Deiveson will be more aggressive, sharper striker who also packs a lot more power when he does land, so taking those shots this time would spell trouble for Benavidez.

All in all it looks one of those fights where one guy would be winning, up until they no longer are. Benavidez outpointing Figueiredo until he gets caught with something heavy. But its also possible that Benavidez just completely styles Figueiredo. Like I said, he is powerful, and sharp striker, but not the most intelligent fighter. He might be unable to adjust if Benavidez figures him out.

If there is grappling in the fight, it will be all Benavidez for sure. Still, with everything pointed Benavidez' way, I can't confidently pick a guy in his latter 30s in flyweight division against a heavy power puncher who probably has 5-10 pounds on him. If it was exactly even money, I would pick Benavidez, as it is it is too close for me to trust him.

Therefore, Deiveson Figueiredo via 3rd round TKO.

Co-Main Event: Felicia Spencer vs. Zarah Fairn Dos Santos

It's kinda strange matchup. Spencer beat Anderson via grappling, then Anderson outgrappled Dos Santos. And now Spencer is matched up against Spencer? Honestly I think Dos Santos has decent chance on the feet if she makes it an outside pointfighting matchup. She is lanky and decent boxer. But... she is not gonna do that is she? It's only matter of time before this hits the floor and Dos Santos is all power and little technique on the floor, so Spencer should have this.

Felicia Spencer via 1st round submission.

Ion Cutelaba vs. Magomed Ankalaev
I kinda feel Ankalaev will do to Cutelaba what Cutelaba did to Roundtree. Cutelaba is a functional groundfighter, but not on Ankalaev's level. In standup its a close battle, probably Cutelaba's power and aggression might give him a slight edge, but Ankalaev is good too. Certainly its closer there.

Ankalaev via UD.

Megan Anderson vs. Norma Dumont Viana
Norma looks like she has solid fundamentals from the limited video I could find, but she is only 4 fights into her career and being so green... I would imagine it would show against Anderson. Anderson has rounded up her game well and should come into this fight without glaring holes, and thus be able to get the win.

Megan Anderson via 2nd round TKO.

Grant Dawson vs. Darrick Minner
Should be a fun fight, both guys love to put a pace and are capable grapplers. Still, this seems like a bad matchup for Dawson. Minner is a very willing grappler, good scrambler, and wild in standup, with his specialty being the guillotine choke. Dawson on the other hand is very raw on the feet and really has only one way to win - walk you down, take you down, stay on top and beat you up. I just don't see how you can do that against guy like Minner. Anything is possible I suppose, but my pick here is clear.

Odds are extremely widely in favor of Dawson, so either I am missing something or other people are way overrating Dawson.

Minner via 2nd round submission.

Gabriel Silva vs. Kyler Phillips
Fun matchup, one that's hard to call as well. Cause Silva could very well just cheese takedowns and top control and get decision that way. In fact, that is probably the smart way to do, cause Kyler Phillips seems pretty refined striker for an UFC newcomer. Lot to be excited about Phillips, but think it will be a learning experience for him. Silva is solid everywhere, and lost to Borg only cause he got outscrambled.

Silva via UD.

Brendan Allen vs. Tom Breese
Allen is a great fighter, but he definitely is still very raw and has issues to fix. He is way too content to be on his back to consistently win fights at the most elite level - Holland probably would have gotten the decision in their last fight had he not gotten worn out and finished. That said, as long as you can finish it, win is a win and you don't have to concern yourself too much about decisions. It just comes into play when you climb up the rankings.

Is Breese good enough to put those skills to the test? Well, hard to say. In last 3.5 years, he has only had 3 minutes of octagon time. KOing faded Dan Kelly... it doesn't really tell us a lot. I mean he obviously has very solid fundamentals, but where is he in 2020? Vastly improved? Rusty for not fighting a lot? Hard to say, but my impression is that he is obviously very athletic, has solid footwork and good boxing.

Still, I don't see him keeping Allen off him. In fact, I am worried he might get caught like deer in headlights with Allen just clinching him immediately and dragging him down. If that does not happen, he might be able to deliver a lot of damage moving backwards constantly countering, but still, it's just matter of time before Allen grabs hold of him.

Who knows how he will fare on the floor? But my best guess is not well enough. Not the most reliable pick here because of all the unknowns, but I do think the prospect will get the job done.

Allen via 1st round submission.

Luis Pena vs. Steve Garcia
Looking at Pena's last fight... how the hell did he lose a decision in that? I won money on the bad decision there, but he massacred Frevola with his length and accuracy of shots. He managed to stop most of the wrestling too and did not gas despite crazy pace of the fight.

Steve Garcia is a featherweight coming up on short notice to fill in. He is a competent LFA fighter who actually manages to match Pena in length, both sporting impressive 75 inches. I would say he definitely has a decent chance to catch Pena with something and spring a surprise. Still, despite his record Pena has looked great every step of the way and is not really exposed anywhere.

Garcia has impressive amount of KOs for a small guy, but like I said he is moving up a weight class here and Pena has never been KOd. So the chances of him pulling of the upset by KO are slim, and due to the short notice nature of the match I don't see him outpointing Pena for 3 rounds.

So yeah, Luis Pena via UD. Well guess I won't officially make this pick since the fight has not been updated on my fight site. Seriously? This was not one day before replacement, this has been known already for some time. Ugh.

Marcin Tybura vs. Sergey Spivak
This is probably the hardest fight to call on the card. First of all, it's heavyweights, so that makes it already unpredictable, but it is also something of a chinny heavyweights. Though I suppose it is not fair to call Spivak chinny for being just KOd by Walt Harris. Tybura though has now been stopped twice in a row. I don't wanna jump into conclusions, after all Sakai probably hits very hard, but it seems like the guy is really fading.

Has he faded far enough to lose to Spivak? Spivak has such a strange fighting style, but you can't say its completely ineffective when it lands 7 takedowns against Tai Tuivasa and ends with Tuivasa going to sleep. Still, he has strange tendencies you think smart fighter like Tybura would take advantage of, like shelling up and being willing to take barrages of shots.

I have to look at the odds with this one. I mean I feel Tybura would probably be slight favorite, he has good footwork, cardio and takedown defence, at least for a heavyweight, so he should be able to keep Spivak off him and land the important shots, but can he take it when inevitably something lands back? I do think most likely way for Spivak to win it is by KO, I don't see him doing what he did to Tuivasa to Tybura.

With even odds, I have to go with Tybura. Tybura via UD.

Jordan Griffin vs. TJ Brown
Griffin has power and decent fundamentals... but you just can't trust him not to do something stupid that takes him away from winning a fight he should be winning. TJ Brown is a solid fighter, bit chinny, but solid, powerful guy who can exploit any openings Griffin gives him.

TJ Brown via 2nd round KO.

Spike Carlyle vs. Aalon Cruz
So Carlyle seems to be very aggressive and powerful wrestleboxer who puts pressure on you and throws hard shots, ultimately though trying to blanket around you stay on top. Cruz on the other hand is stupidly long guy who uses his range and fights excellently from the outside.

So it is an interesting matchup of contrasting styles. Carlyle definitely has more ways of winning this. He might of course just put on chain wrestling display and take it via top control, or he might just keep pressure and wear Cruz out - though Cruz seems to have excellent conditioning so I think that is the least likely thing to happen. He might also just manage to get into the crazy long range and land one of them powershots to put Cruz out.

Cruz on the other hand needs to keep this at distance. He might as well do it, he has excellent output, capable of throwing shots nonstop and keep moving.

I am leaning on the ginger here, I think his pressure is able to jam Cruz' offense and he can find his own powershots or at least get enough takedowns to snatch couple of rounds.

Carlyle via UD.

Sean Brady vs. Ismail Naurdiev
Naurdiev really learned from his match again Rencountre and seems like he has addressed his lacking grappling since. That makes him the one with more diverse attack here. Brady is very fast and powerful striker of course, likes to really hook and throw powerpunches, whereas Naurdiev is more technical, more straight shots and outside striking.

So in range, this one is Naurdiev's match, Brady will have to get close to land his powershots. I would say its a very even matchup, but I do think Naurdiev has the better footwork and wins this fight by outpointing Brady more often than not. At least Brady has pound for pound the best tattoo.

Naurdiev via UD.