UFC 169 Post-Fight Analysis
I did not write any post-fight analysis last time, I didn't find a gap of time to write it, and I figured the little comments I made on Twitter were enough. Anyway, I might as well expand on them here this time and get this out of the way. UFC Norfolk had some controversy to talk about.
It was heartbreaking, raw emotion to see him destroyed after the fight. Technically, he was much the better fighter, and just like I called it, it was one of those fights where one guy is winning until they aren't. I don't know who won the first round, they both had their moments, but Benavidez was definitely landing a lot and it looked like he might be able to make Figueiredo tire out. Still, it wasn't like the KO shot either was the first shot Figueiredo landed. He has remarkable power for flyweight.
Obviously the headbutt preceding affecting Benavidez, but as much as it was a distraction, it won't do as an excuse. It was accidental and these things happen. As for future of flyweight... I don't know. I honestly wish they either get committed to actually filling up the ranks or just scrap it altogether, I am not big fan of half-assing in between. I am sure ONE FC would snap up a lot of the guys if they do decide to scrap the division.
Not much to say about Co-Main, Dos Santos does not really belong on this level, his pre-UFC career was primarily bullying smaller girls on regional scene. Miragliotta stopped it late, probably affected by the fight prior to this.
Kevin McDonald got the casual's hate for admittedly very bad stoppage. Still, I am fan of protecting fighters too much when it is a non-title or not high up rankings fight. When guys fight for millions instead of just climbing the ladder, you should let them be warriors more, but when stakes are lower and they are still climbing the ranks, it is better to stop prematurely.
Still, in the end he just made a mistake. You can't stop the fight when the guy is throwing back. If he stepped in when heavy shot just landed on Cutelaba, it would have been much more understandable.
I also saw casuals comment that Cutelaba was playing that he was hurt. Initially, I completely rejected the idea - you don't absorb bunch of kicks from a huge dude like Ankalaev and still have enough faculties to think about faking anything.
However when I watched the replay enough times, I see where they got the idea. Cause before the main flurry started, it did seem like Cutelaba was indeed playing that he was more rocked than he really was. However, when that third kick landed flush on the chin (I don't know where people get the idea that "all the kicks missed" - while there was some blocked, definitely all of the kicks connected in one form or another), I don't think for a second that the stuttering steps after that were fake.
If anything, Cutelaba has hell of a chin to still be standing. Another thing that makes me convinced that he was really rocked is that the strikes he threw next had very little semblance of technique, just very wide looping shots that seemed something instinctive a cornered animal might do. Ankalaev easily evaded them too. It was while those looping shots were thrown that McDonald had seen enough and stepped in... and it did seem like Cutelaba got his wits back at that point and was on steadier legs.
Either way, I am convinced that he took some damage and was hurt in that exchange - even the first shot he was supposed to be just "playing" off of, landed pretty flush to his chin, and it's not unrealistic that he was really hurt even during that. Not enough though to stop the fight, and he probably would have still had a chance to turn around had the fight continued. Still, Ankalaev being the more technical guy, I would have given him high percentage to stay on top of that fight, and I don't see any point in having them rematch.
Norma Dumont came to her match against Megan Anderson with a lot of confidence, thinking that she will be facing Nunes soon. She was roughly humbled as Anderson landed a beautiful straight and put her on her back so bad that probably did not even realize what just happened. It was the most spectacular finish of Anderson's career, will see if it nets her a title shot in pretty empty division.
I quickly discovered why the odds between Grant Dawson and Darrick Minner were so wide. Still, I think Minner was worth a punt. For the 4 minutes that he had gas for, he was nonstop threat and judging from how Grant spoke in post-fight interview, it was matter of inches that he had gotten the unlikely submission at some point of the first round. As it was, he completely deflated by second round and got easily finished.
Tom Breese started off encouragingly, but then made a mistake of trying to get Allen on his back instead of trying actively to disengage from the clinch. The end result was Allen getting into the position he is good at and working to a TKO win. Allen has been solid moneymaker for me so far.
Marcin Tybura has some chin left after all. Spivak was probably getting better of him in the stand-up exchanges, but Tybura took his best shots and then exposed his poor defensive wrestling to an easy unanimous decision. Spivak is still young but has some holes to work on if he is ever gonna become a legit contender in UFC HW division.
Steve Garcia came for a scrap, but just could not stop Luis Pena from constantly getting his back and controlling him from there. He survived and didn't take too much damage in a short notice fight so he can't be all unhappy, but of course loss still hurts. Pena did basically the minimum requirement, he was supposed to dispatch the smaller weight class guy on short notice anyway.
Jordan Griffin usually makes poor mistakes to lose fights he was winning... well TJ Brown was winning against him but kept leaving his chin open and eventually Griffin caught him with a choke and put him to sleep.
With his ridiculous reach, Aalon Cruz was supposed to dominate Spike Carlyle from distance. Instead, the stocky ginger willingly traded with him and flattened him with heavy punches. It was damn impressive debut from Carlyle.
I wrote that Ismael Naurdiev addressed his grappling issues after his fight with Rencountre, but guess that was a premature conclusion. Sean Brady seemed to be step behind in the striking, but once he figured out how to close distance and clinch up with Naurdiev, it was all him. Naurdiev could not stop being taken down and in the 3rd he then stupidly threw a jumping knee which ALWAYS leads to fighters ending up into a clinch. Seriously I can't fathom that when you are struggling with grappling and need to stay on outside distance you would do something like that. But then again I am not the one in there getting kicked and punched to the head, so guess I gotta give these guys some slack.
I took biggest loss with the Minner pick, but I don't really regret the pick or consider it bad, just had it as too big bet. Gabriel Silva was a guy whom I simply had completely overrated. My by far best pick was Carlyle, though he won in a very different manner than I expected.
After small loss on FN 167, I have had two big winning events in a row. We have another 12 fights coming up next weekend in the big one, UFC 248, with two title fights headlining the card.
Main Card
By the time the main event started, I was already winning for the night, and as I really like Benavidez, I was hoping he would win despite my pick. Just as I was lecturing my girlfriend about how only Demetrious ever knocked Benavidez out, Figueiredo landed cross clean. So my sentence was finished "...and now he got KOd a second time."It was heartbreaking, raw emotion to see him destroyed after the fight. Technically, he was much the better fighter, and just like I called it, it was one of those fights where one guy is winning until they aren't. I don't know who won the first round, they both had their moments, but Benavidez was definitely landing a lot and it looked like he might be able to make Figueiredo tire out. Still, it wasn't like the KO shot either was the first shot Figueiredo landed. He has remarkable power for flyweight.
Obviously the headbutt preceding affecting Benavidez, but as much as it was a distraction, it won't do as an excuse. It was accidental and these things happen. As for future of flyweight... I don't know. I honestly wish they either get committed to actually filling up the ranks or just scrap it altogether, I am not big fan of half-assing in between. I am sure ONE FC would snap up a lot of the guys if they do decide to scrap the division.
Not much to say about Co-Main, Dos Santos does not really belong on this level, his pre-UFC career was primarily bullying smaller girls on regional scene. Miragliotta stopped it late, probably affected by the fight prior to this.
Kevin McDonald got the casual's hate for admittedly very bad stoppage. Still, I am fan of protecting fighters too much when it is a non-title or not high up rankings fight. When guys fight for millions instead of just climbing the ladder, you should let them be warriors more, but when stakes are lower and they are still climbing the ranks, it is better to stop prematurely.
Still, in the end he just made a mistake. You can't stop the fight when the guy is throwing back. If he stepped in when heavy shot just landed on Cutelaba, it would have been much more understandable.
I also saw casuals comment that Cutelaba was playing that he was hurt. Initially, I completely rejected the idea - you don't absorb bunch of kicks from a huge dude like Ankalaev and still have enough faculties to think about faking anything.
However when I watched the replay enough times, I see where they got the idea. Cause before the main flurry started, it did seem like Cutelaba was indeed playing that he was more rocked than he really was. However, when that third kick landed flush on the chin (I don't know where people get the idea that "all the kicks missed" - while there was some blocked, definitely all of the kicks connected in one form or another), I don't think for a second that the stuttering steps after that were fake.
If anything, Cutelaba has hell of a chin to still be standing. Another thing that makes me convinced that he was really rocked is that the strikes he threw next had very little semblance of technique, just very wide looping shots that seemed something instinctive a cornered animal might do. Ankalaev easily evaded them too. It was while those looping shots were thrown that McDonald had seen enough and stepped in... and it did seem like Cutelaba got his wits back at that point and was on steadier legs.
Either way, I am convinced that he took some damage and was hurt in that exchange - even the first shot he was supposed to be just "playing" off of, landed pretty flush to his chin, and it's not unrealistic that he was really hurt even during that. Not enough though to stop the fight, and he probably would have still had a chance to turn around had the fight continued. Still, Ankalaev being the more technical guy, I would have given him high percentage to stay on top of that fight, and I don't see any point in having them rematch.
Norma Dumont came to her match against Megan Anderson with a lot of confidence, thinking that she will be facing Nunes soon. She was roughly humbled as Anderson landed a beautiful straight and put her on her back so bad that probably did not even realize what just happened. It was the most spectacular finish of Anderson's career, will see if it nets her a title shot in pretty empty division.
I quickly discovered why the odds between Grant Dawson and Darrick Minner were so wide. Still, I think Minner was worth a punt. For the 4 minutes that he had gas for, he was nonstop threat and judging from how Grant spoke in post-fight interview, it was matter of inches that he had gotten the unlikely submission at some point of the first round. As it was, he completely deflated by second round and got easily finished.
Prelims
Kyler Phillips put on an excellent striking display against Gabriel Silva, and once Silva started tiring out, Philips also outgrappled and outscrambled him. Phillips looks like a great prospect and a fun fighter to watch.Tom Breese started off encouragingly, but then made a mistake of trying to get Allen on his back instead of trying actively to disengage from the clinch. The end result was Allen getting into the position he is good at and working to a TKO win. Allen has been solid moneymaker for me so far.
Marcin Tybura has some chin left after all. Spivak was probably getting better of him in the stand-up exchanges, but Tybura took his best shots and then exposed his poor defensive wrestling to an easy unanimous decision. Spivak is still young but has some holes to work on if he is ever gonna become a legit contender in UFC HW division.
Steve Garcia came for a scrap, but just could not stop Luis Pena from constantly getting his back and controlling him from there. He survived and didn't take too much damage in a short notice fight so he can't be all unhappy, but of course loss still hurts. Pena did basically the minimum requirement, he was supposed to dispatch the smaller weight class guy on short notice anyway.
Jordan Griffin usually makes poor mistakes to lose fights he was winning... well TJ Brown was winning against him but kept leaving his chin open and eventually Griffin caught him with a choke and put him to sleep.
With his ridiculous reach, Aalon Cruz was supposed to dominate Spike Carlyle from distance. Instead, the stocky ginger willingly traded with him and flattened him with heavy punches. It was damn impressive debut from Carlyle.
I wrote that Ismael Naurdiev addressed his grappling issues after his fight with Rencountre, but guess that was a premature conclusion. Sean Brady seemed to be step behind in the striking, but once he figured out how to close distance and clinch up with Naurdiev, it was all him. Naurdiev could not stop being taken down and in the 3rd he then stupidly threw a jumping knee which ALWAYS leads to fighters ending up into a clinch. Seriously I can't fathom that when you are struggling with grappling and need to stay on outside distance you would do something like that. But then again I am not the one in there getting kicked and punched to the head, so guess I gotta give these guys some slack.
My picks
All in all, the event went great with me getting 8 picks out of 12 right. It is not quite as good as last week, when I got 10 out of 12 correct, but two events with 75 % correct pick rate combined is incredible run. Surely this won't last?I took biggest loss with the Minner pick, but I don't really regret the pick or consider it bad, just had it as too big bet. Gabriel Silva was a guy whom I simply had completely overrated. My by far best pick was Carlyle, though he won in a very different manner than I expected.
After small loss on FN 167, I have had two big winning events in a row. We have another 12 fights coming up next weekend in the big one, UFC 248, with two title fights headlining the card.
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