UFC 248 Post-Fight Analysis
What can I say, it was a great card and I broke even so can't really complain. The main event kinda bombed, but at least even that was a tense affair. Let's break the event down a bit.
The co-main more than makes up for whatever the main event was lacking though. Joanna and Zhang put together one of the all-time great fights, with both of them absolutely battering each other. In the end Zhang edged it out by a split decision, but man I would not mind seeing these two go at it for a second time. Love her or hate her, Joanna is still elite and showed it today, but it was even moreso Zhang that proved herself to be the legit champ.
When Rose gets her head together again to fight Zhang that will be another exciting matchup to look forward to. Strawweight is currently the best division in Women's MMA, all the other division's are controlled by dominant fighters far above the competition.
Before the co-main, Dariush and Klose put together what was a fight of the night until that point. Dariush had Klose in trouble the first round, being controlled from the back the whole round, and against my expectations, Klose survived those positions with Dariush to have him tired and ripe for picking in the second round.
Klose indeed tagged Dariush hard for a few times and the fighter notorious for being a bit chinny was slightly on wobbly legs. Guess Dariush figured fuck it, I am already hurt and gassed, my best chance is just to swing for the bleachers, and so they exchanged wildly. It was Dariush who landed the big shot to put Klose out. It was crazy while it lasted, and great win for Dariush.
Neil Magny put together a vintage performance against Li Jingliang and showed that he had made the best of the time away, and is still a legit welterweight contender - though his chin was tested a little in the first round. Shame on me for ever doubting him.
In the spirit of the card Oliveira and Griffin also engaged in a war, with both getting one round each before close final round, that saw Oliveira get couple of minutes of top control, and then Griffin reversing and getting the same. Griffin finished on top, but judged preferred Oliveira's more significant strikes and he got the split decision.
On the other hand I expected Mark Madsen to make light work of Austin Hubbard, but Hubbard dug deep to have Madsen in some real trouble deep into the fight. Guess it was correct to match Madsen up with a little easier opposition - or perhaps Hubbard was just underestimated by me, and does not actually represent "easier opposition".
I took a shot on Safarov, and well... it was not that far off. Safarov had Vieira badly hurt in the early exchanges, if he only had done better job of avoiding the clinch and defending the takedown... Vieira was urgent to finish the fight after his eye swelled up following getting pieced up in the feet, and quickly found the submission once the fight hit the mat.
Gerald Meerschaert's fight with Deron Winn was just as weird as advertised. It looked like Winn could have implement top control game plan if he wanted to, but he preferred to just stand and bang against much longer guy. I mean I kind of understand, Meerschaert is very dangerous on the ground, and clunky at best on the feet... still, giving up that much reach was always gonna be a problem. At least if you get subbed on the ground you don't take so much damage...
As it was, Winn got pieced up for 3 rounds and ultimately rocked, then subbed anyway. Hindsight is always 20/20, but I definitely think Winn should have pursued clinch and takedowns much more.
Man am I glad I ended up doing last minute flip of my pick in the fight between Emmers and Chikadze. I ended up being right on all accounts - Emmers could have had this fight with the limited wrestling he has, but he only started to put pressure on Chikadze late on, when he already had lost the first two rounds. Chikadze gasses hard and still doesn't have much ground defence, so his ceiling in MMA is not much higher than this - he will have problems with real wrestlers.
Cannetti showed in the first fight of the night why 40-year-olds don't make it this far usually. He could not take a shot from Batgerel and got finished quickly.
I don't think I had any outright awful picks, worst probably being Quinonez who looked like he had no business in being in there with O'Malley. Best pick... well, guess I have to say Chikadze even if he only barely won, cause he was a big underdog in a fight where he really should not have been.
Main Card
Israel cannot feel good about his performance with Yoel, but what can you do when the opponent has dynamite in his hands but refuses to engage? The fight being so passive comes down not only to Israel respecting Yoel's power, but also Yoel respecting the danger of Israel's counter-striking. So in the end they just ended up staring each other a lot. Yoel ranted at the end but he can only look in the mirror for not going after it harder in the end, when it was clear he was getting outpointed for last three rounds.The co-main more than makes up for whatever the main event was lacking though. Joanna and Zhang put together one of the all-time great fights, with both of them absolutely battering each other. In the end Zhang edged it out by a split decision, but man I would not mind seeing these two go at it for a second time. Love her or hate her, Joanna is still elite and showed it today, but it was even moreso Zhang that proved herself to be the legit champ.
When Rose gets her head together again to fight Zhang that will be another exciting matchup to look forward to. Strawweight is currently the best division in Women's MMA, all the other division's are controlled by dominant fighters far above the competition.
Before the co-main, Dariush and Klose put together what was a fight of the night until that point. Dariush had Klose in trouble the first round, being controlled from the back the whole round, and against my expectations, Klose survived those positions with Dariush to have him tired and ripe for picking in the second round.
Klose indeed tagged Dariush hard for a few times and the fighter notorious for being a bit chinny was slightly on wobbly legs. Guess Dariush figured fuck it, I am already hurt and gassed, my best chance is just to swing for the bleachers, and so they exchanged wildly. It was Dariush who landed the big shot to put Klose out. It was crazy while it lasted, and great win for Dariush.
Neil Magny put together a vintage performance against Li Jingliang and showed that he had made the best of the time away, and is still a legit welterweight contender - though his chin was tested a little in the first round. Shame on me for ever doubting him.
In the spirit of the card Oliveira and Griffin also engaged in a war, with both getting one round each before close final round, that saw Oliveira get couple of minutes of top control, and then Griffin reversing and getting the same. Griffin finished on top, but judged preferred Oliveira's more significant strikes and he got the split decision.
Prelims
In the featured prelim, Sean O'Malley showed himself the star in the making and was vastly improved, completely blowing Quinonez out of the water. I thought it should have been competitive matchup, but this kid seems ready for bigger things.On the other hand I expected Mark Madsen to make light work of Austin Hubbard, but Hubbard dug deep to have Madsen in some real trouble deep into the fight. Guess it was correct to match Madsen up with a little easier opposition - or perhaps Hubbard was just underestimated by me, and does not actually represent "easier opposition".
I took a shot on Safarov, and well... it was not that far off. Safarov had Vieira badly hurt in the early exchanges, if he only had done better job of avoiding the clinch and defending the takedown... Vieira was urgent to finish the fight after his eye swelled up following getting pieced up in the feet, and quickly found the submission once the fight hit the mat.
Gerald Meerschaert's fight with Deron Winn was just as weird as advertised. It looked like Winn could have implement top control game plan if he wanted to, but he preferred to just stand and bang against much longer guy. I mean I kind of understand, Meerschaert is very dangerous on the ground, and clunky at best on the feet... still, giving up that much reach was always gonna be a problem. At least if you get subbed on the ground you don't take so much damage...
As it was, Winn got pieced up for 3 rounds and ultimately rocked, then subbed anyway. Hindsight is always 20/20, but I definitely think Winn should have pursued clinch and takedowns much more.
Man am I glad I ended up doing last minute flip of my pick in the fight between Emmers and Chikadze. I ended up being right on all accounts - Emmers could have had this fight with the limited wrestling he has, but he only started to put pressure on Chikadze late on, when he already had lost the first two rounds. Chikadze gasses hard and still doesn't have much ground defence, so his ceiling in MMA is not much higher than this - he will have problems with real wrestlers.
Cannetti showed in the first fight of the night why 40-year-olds don't make it this far usually. He could not take a shot from Batgerel and got finished quickly.
My picks
I got 6 out of 11 picks right, breaking even for the night at slightest of profits. If we consider any night where I get 50 % or more of the picks correct a good night, I now have 6 good nights in a row. Great run even if this event was not the greatest.I don't think I had any outright awful picks, worst probably being Quinonez who looked like he had no business in being in there with O'Malley. Best pick... well, guess I have to say Chikadze even if he only barely won, cause he was a big underdog in a fight where he really should not have been.
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