UFC 248 Preview & Predictions

For once I am ahead of schedule. Let's see if the 75 % correct pick rate of last two events holds up, I picked a lot of underdogs in this one.

Main Event: Israel Adesanya vs. Yoel Romero

I am glad that things turned out as they did and Yoel gets one more shot for the title in his old age. Still, I think he is gonna end up falling short. Lot of guys have managed to outstrike and Yoel and Israel's striking is at completely different level to anything Romero has faced. 

Of course, guy with as crazy physicality as Yoel has always has a chance to snatch a win in a fight, and in fact that is how Yoel gets most of his wins. His fights tend to be close until he just ends them with some hellacious blow. Still, it is hard to see him getting that against Israel. 

Israel has beautiful head movement, excellent footwork and 7 inches of range over Yoel. Arguably Whittaker lost to Romero, but it was close enough for him to snatch a decision, and that was primarily thanks to Whittaker's striking. Well Israel completely schooled Whittaker in their fight with striking.

What about takedowns? Well they are there, and I would not be surprised if Yoel manages to drag Israel down once or twice during the match. However, I do not really trust him to just mount enough offence in wrestling department to keep Israel down enough. 

Yoel carries his power deep into the fights, but overall tends to slow down significantly which is no wonder considering his build. That's why yeah, I could see him winning two rounds off of takedowns, but does he have enough to get a third one? Doubt it. 

So my prediction is that Israel stays fleetfooted, pops him with long shots, and just never allows Yoel to get close enough to land his power shot or a takedown. 

Israel Adesanya via UD.

Co-Main Event: Weili Zhang vs. Joanna Jerdzejczyk

The question here is, how good is Weili Zhang actually? We all know Joanna very well - she might be bit past her best, but she is still absolute elite of the strawweight division. Her skills are very well proven. 

Zhang though came to get a title shot off of beating Taylor, Aguilar and Torres in UFC. One of the weakest lineups of victories for any title contender. She then beat one of the technically sloppiest champs in the UFC. Not saying Andrade is not good, but she is good cause she is crazy strong, not cause she fights gracefully. Fighter like that is always liable to get caught, which is exactly what happened.

Only thing the Andrade fight really taught us is that Zhang carries a lot of power for a strawweight. Outside of that, it is only against Joanna that we are gonna learn anything of how good Zhang really is. 

With all that said, Joanna has ego, and if Zhang catches her good, she will stay there and swing and that is how Joanna got knocked out in the first place against Rose. If Rose can do it, why wouldn't Zhang be able to do it against a little more faded Joanna? 

At the same time, Joanna could just keep this fight very technical for the whole duration and never allow her to get a chance to impose her power. I don't know. There's a chance Zhang is completely outmatched technically, but it is possible that she actually is in Joanna's level in striking. This is a girl who has not lost since 2013, so it would be foolish to pick against her.

I am gonna pick this one based on odds. They should be pretty close with Joanna probably the favorite as the more proven commodity.

Yeah, so I like Weili, but Joanna has the experience, so... Joanna via UD.

Beneil Dariush vs. Drakkar Klose

On paper it's pretty clear match-up, Dariush much the better grappler, Klose the better striker. Dariush being a bit chinny does bring uncertainty to this match-up, but Klose got in lot of trouble in grappling with Giagos and was only saved by Giagos gassing out. Dariush is unlikely to gas and Klose won't survive the same spots if Dariush gets him in same positions, so...

Dariush via 2nd round submission.

Neil Magny vs. Jingliang Li

Honestly, who knows what kind of Neil Magny will show up. He used to be one of the more active welterweights, but then got dominated and ultimately flatlined by Ponzinibbio. It's been 1.5 years since. It is always a good idea to take long time off after being completely knocked out, but even with the time off, we do not know if it permanently affected his ability to take a shot. Li is not the biggest power puncher, but certainly has enough to put lights out if he connects well.

Unlike Magny, Li has been active, has extremely good chin, and has good win from his last fight. That makes me me lean on him beating the ring rust off of Magny. Of course Magny could make this clinch/grappleheavy fight and realistically beat him there, but I just don't feel like I can trust him after seeing him struggle so bad with Ponzinibbio's aggression as well as having been away for long.

Jingliang Li via 2nd round KO.

Alex Oliveira vs. Max Griffin

After taking 3 losses in a row, Oliveira gets slight drop in competition in Max Griffin. Well, it is debatable whether Griffin is really any worse than Dalby, but certainly it would seem he is better style matchup for Cowboy. 

It would seem to me that Oliveira is slightly better in both stand-up and grappling, but we are not talking of big difference here, and for once someone can somewhat match Oliveira for his length. Oliveira's eternal problem is his poor cardio, and that is where Griffin could very well win this, by taking the fight deep and keeping it high pace.

Still, Oliveira via 1st round KO.

Jose Alberto Quinonez vs. Sean O'Malley

O'Malley should have lost his last fight. Usually I defend fighters doing stupid decisions, getting punched to the head left and right, but it really is perplexing how his opponent didn't see his leg was badly hurt. Anyway, it went as it went, O'Malley got a dominant decision and after some problems with USADA he is now back after a long break.

Quinonez is an appopriate level opponent for him. Competent everywhere but undoubtedly outmatched on the feet here, the question is can Quinonez impose his wrestling game on O'Malley? O'Malley tends to chase the submission more over trying to force getting back up, which as we know does not work so well at the highest level. It still just might work for him against Quinonez.

Can't pick him with good heart at present odds though. O'Malley should be favorite, but not this big one, it's a close fight on paper. Quinonez via SD.

Mark Madsen vs. Austin Hubbard

Really, UFC? We have multiple time Olympian here who is already deep in his 30s, coming off of complete domination win, and you are gonna match him up against another relatively low-level fighter? I don't know what Madsen's aspirations in UFC are gonna be... but probably to go for the title, no? So why not match him up with higher level competition? It is not like you can talk about rushing things when the guy is over 35 and has that olympic level pedigree...

Anyway, rants aside, at least Hubbard should offer some legitimate challenge unlike Belluardo, who was just a sacrificial lamb. Though Hubbard is a natural lightweight, so there is probably something I don't know about this matchup. Perhaps Hubbard is late replacement... well then the matchup makes a hell of a lot more sense.

Still Hubbard didn't show enough in his last match for me to have any confidence in him pulling off the upset here. He squeaked a decision against kickboxer through grabbing just enough takedowns, that's not gonna fly against olympic level wrestler. Hubbard has more lateral movement than Belluardo had, but I still don't see him being able to stay away from Madsen enough to have any real success.

Mark Madsen via 1st round TKO.

Rodolfo Vieira vs. Saparbek Safarov

Safarov's grappling looked decent in his last fight, but it was offensive grappling augmented with fencegrabs - so tells really little about how well he can defend those takedowns against a guy who is one of the best BJJ guys in the world. Vieira is a massive dude with great power, but as a result he does not have much cardio. Safarov will probably piece him up on the feet, and if he can defend the takedowns he can take the fight deep and beat a gassed Vieira.

But if Villante can KO Safarov, there's no reason Vieira would not be able to do so as well. So on paper, Vieira has a lot of ways to win this and while I feel that Safarov probably can hold his own here, he is not the kind of guy who you can trust. Guess this is one of those times where, if the odds are lopsided, I will go for him cause he has a clear way to win this, but Vieira's grappling and power SHOULD make the difference overall.

With this massive odds indeed the play is to go for the fame victory for Safarov. Safarov via SD. If he wins, that would be my biggest profit ever.

Gerald Meerschaert vs. Deron Winn

This is gonna be a weird fight. I can't even fathom how it would go. Meerschaert does everything wrong in a way, is perfectly content in hanging out in awful positions, but still snatches the occasional win by submission or otherwise. Here he is also at a massive length advantage as a very tall guy against the extreme outlier in being short, 5'6 Deron Winn. 

Well, perhaps I can forecast how the fight goes with a little bit of imagination - Winn pursues the takedown and Meerschaert accepts it cause well... that's just how he is. If Meerschaert was smart he would just point fight on the outside, but he doesn't really fight like that.

So the fight will be Winn's decision win or Meerschaert catches him at some point during the 15 minutes. If Winn does not pursue the takedown for some reason, then it becomes weirder fight. Technically Winn is better on the feet, but he is just at such massive length disadvantage I don't think it matters. Meerschaert can just pop him with long shots all night. 

This is a fight where by any means Meerschaert should win with all the physical advantages he has, but I feel like he won't. I feel like Winn is gonna hit him with some hard kicks and then take him down. Chop down the lead leg and grind.

Deron Winn via UD.

Emily Whitmire vs. Polyana Viana
Viana's UFC record of 3 straight losses does not look great, but in the end she is similar fighter to the girl who last beat Whitmire. Whitmire is a solid stand-up fighter, but she can be overwhelmed with grappling and certainly submitted. Viana should be good enough to get it to the ground and keep it there.

Polyana Viana via UD.

Jamall Emmers vs. Giga Chikadze
I love Giga's fighting style, but it also looks too volatile to really be successful in UFC. Davis touched him up a lot in his UFC debut, and he was also taken down in every round. He got away with it in that one, and Emmers really isn't any worse opponent, but I still don't feel that despite Chikadze's Glory credentials I can reliably pick him.

The problem for Emmers is that he is good where his opponent is good - he is primarily a striker. Does he have enough wrestling offense to threaten Chikadze? I don't think his takedown game is great, but you don't need great to consistently take Chikadze down. Emmers is also fast and powerful fighter, so I think he can snatch a KO, sub or a tight decision win here, even if the opportunity came at a short notice.

Did not expect Emmers to be such a big favorite though. It's still at worst a close match-up, so I am switching to Chikadze here. Chikadze via 1st round KO.

Guido Cannetti vs. Danaa Batgerel
Cannetti looks like he should be the better fighter here... problem is, he is 40 years old, has not fought in 1.5 years, and took a lot of damage in his last fight. So it is bit of an unknown how much he has fallen off his old ability. Certainly he is not someone you can pick with any confidence.

Batgerel isn't great, but he is not fundamentally bad either and will surely perform better now than in his UFC debut.

Batgerel via UD.