UFC Fight Night 170 Preview & Predictions
Honestly UFC Brasilia is full of fun match-ups, great card for a fight night.
The Gillespie fight did not really tell us much new things about Lee. It was largely a stand-up affair that seemed competitive until Lee put Gillespie's lights out. It does not deserve much mention here cause I am sure that you, like me, have seen that KO over and over again since. All we learned was that it seems that Lee has taken a step to the right direction under Zahabi. Jury is still out though, Gillespie did not really go for grapple-heavy, wearing down style of fight that would have been his advantage and the type of fight that usually beats Lee.
With Charles Oliveira the situation is pretty similar. He has impressive streak of finishes, but he has not been fighting the highest level competition in a while. In a way this fight will come down to Lee's power versus Oliveira's seemingly questionable durability, and on the other hand Lee's tendency to fade against Oliveira's crafty submission game. It is deliciously in the balanced in that matter.
It should be pretty clear that Lee does not want to take this one down. You would think he wants to stay on the outside, stay out of the grappling realm and just look to KO Oliveira, which has been done many times. Oliveira seems to have improved his stand-up though and has now couple of back to back KOs. His problem is that he is not exactly classic offensive wrestler. He does have great sweeps, but with a guy as strong as Lee, I doubt he is getting them even if he does manage to clinch up. Perhaps he does not need to. Perhaps he just needs to clinch up Lee long enough to get him tired.
Does Oliveira in the end have any better cardio though? Certainly he might tire himself out as well in the early going if he goes for lot of clinching. It makes sense therefore that he is actually gonna be just as cagey as Lee about closing the distance and running into that power. So it comes down to who is better kickboxer, and that is not clear at all. Like I said, I think Lee is the more powerful one, but you would think Oliveira has the speed on him and won't get caught with a headkick like Gillespie did.
I am kind of leaning towards Oliveira in this. You don't really wanna pick against guy on a long winning streak, and for a guy who not too long ago limped into a defeat against Al Iaquinta. As much as there is optimism around Lee in the moment, I just feel like I can trust Oliveira more in this one. It is not a comfortable pick for him either though, considering his dodgy chin against Lee's power. With Lee missing the weight though, it also dampens my optimism about him turning the corner with his career.
Charles Oliveira via SD.
Last fight against Nelson really tells us that the whole wanting to grapple with Maia thing is probably just talk, cause he certainly did not actively pursue takedowns in that fight. Sure, he did couple of tosses off clinches, but nothing more than that, certainly did not mess around too much with Nelson's grappling.
I think that's what happens here too. Lot of clinchwork with Maia being unable to take him down. Even if he does, Burns probably is good enough to avoid getting submitted. I hope I am wrong here cause Maia is one of the all-time favorites, but he is 42 already and was getting badly marked up on the feet by even Askren, so someone as powerful as Burns might do bad stuff to him on the feet. At some point the time comes when you just no longer can take a shot and it is not too long for Maia.
Either way, I don't think the percentage for Burns KO is massive, but he will likely stuff all the takedown attempts and thus leave Maia for a slim chance of a win.
Gilbert Burns via UD.
Renato Carneiro vs. Damir Hadzovic
So Renato Carneiro better known as Moicano moves up to lightweight division after taking two bad KO losses back-to-back. At least he did not go completely unconscious in those fights, but when first shot puts you down, it's not a good look.
Hadzovic should be a winnable fight for him overall, but he has some decent power and gets on your face, so if Carneiro's ability to take a shot doesn't improve from lesser weight cut, he might be in trouble here. Technically he should be the better fighter and able to outpoint Hadzovic, if not even KO him, though the guy seems to have a pretty solid chin.
With present odds, Hadzovic is definitely the play here though. Hadzovic via 1st round KO.
Nikita Krylov vs. Johnny Walker
Well, this should be fun. Crazy and unpredictable, but certainly fun. Two offensively potent, but defensively suspect fighters. Between these guys they have 43 victories with 42 finishes - only Johnny Walker has once won a decision. So don't expect this to go the distance.
Walker made the smart decision to go to Tristar, so we should see him improved and he should have far higher ceiling with better coaching, but it has only been one camp. So I still am expecting him to be chinny and defensively suspect. At the same time, he carries crazy power, and Krylov is very hittable. Krylov has the better rounded game, but as I don't expect this to go long, the explosiveness of Walker will make the difference.
Not a pick one can make with any confidence, all I can say about this fight with certainty is that expect the unexpected.
Johnny Walker via 1st round TKO.
Francisco Trinaldo vs. John Makdessi
You know, for 41-year-old man, Trinaldo still has very good power, a lot of speed, solid chin and decent stamina. He also has a big reach advantage over Makdessi who seems to only be fighting once a year these days. Makdessi is quietly on a 3 fight win streak, but has not been particularly impressive in those.
He is still a solid if a bit chinny kickboxer who is hard to takedown, so expect this one to be contested on the outside and if anyone gets a finish, it would be Trinaldo, but I don't expect that. I expect it to be kind of low volume kickboxing fight. Trinaldo might get a home cooking, though I don't know how the lack of crowd will affect the judging. My hunch is Makdessi might be just tiny bit better in the standup, but the reach will make it closer and as this one is unlikely to have a finish, who knows how the decision will go.
John Makdessi via UD.
Jussier Formiga vs. Brandon Moreno
Moreno is the first guy that I have previewed three times ever since I started doing this thorough research. He has been very active and looked very impressive against Kara-France in his last fight. As for Formiga, he got KOd, and he is starting to get up there in age where you start to wonder when guys fall off a cliff.
That is what makes this an uncertain fight. Formiga should have the more tools, but I would assess this to be pretty even on the feet, with Formiga having the grappling and fight IQ advantage. If Formiga has become at all chinny or slowed down even a bit, Moreno will have the edge, and even if he is outmatched in grappling, Moreno is a good scrambler so he might give up rounds, but is unlikely to get subbed.
Most likely outcome is Formiga by close decision, but I have a feeling Moreno's improvement and Formiga fading a bit combine for Moreno getting the win.
Brandon Moreno via UD.
Randa Markos vs. Amanda Ribas
Randa is not gonna have a good time here. Ribas dominated Dern on the feet whereas Markos kept getting taken down by Ashley Yoder, who is arguably worse fighter. Ribas is actually someone with potential to get to higher rankings so this is pretty big mismatch. Ribas will likely dominate on the feet and then take Markos down at will too when she wants to.
I really don't see much of an avenue for Markos to win this. She does not have a KO win on her record, she sure as hell is not gonna sub decorated grappler Ribas, and she is likely gonna lose positionally on the ground and in volume on the feet to get a decision.
Ribas via 2nd round submission.
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs. Alexey Kunchenko
Both guys coming off of a loss and in a bit of a career downturn, so this one is not clear at all. Both guys have good stand up and power, but Zaleski dos Santos got worn down by Leech in his last fight before getting finished, and Kunchenko got just top controlled to a decision by Burns. This one is likely to be a stand-up affair and not so high-pace so Zaleski dos Santos has better chance than against Leech.
Kunchenko likes to pressure but does not put a crazy high pace, so Dos Santos might be able to put good volume of outside striking in. Kunchenko has power to catch him and finish him, so either way it is not a fight that you can confidently pick.
Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos via UD.
Rani Yahya vs. Enrique Barzola
Yahya is definitely slowing down and you wonder how much the damage he took against Ricky Simon will affect him in this fight, if he is softened up like Cowboy started to be after facing Gaethje and Ferguson. He has the classic problem of good BJJ players, does not have the elite level offensive wrestling to impose the grappling.
Barzola has very good takedown defence, even if he is all around a little bit mediocre. That will serve him well against Yahya and although Barzola's all fights in UFC has been decisions, he has decent chance to get a KO here.
Still, most likely it will be UD by Enrique Barzola.
Maryna Moroz vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
Well on paper this seems like a pretty close fight, but Moroz is well-rounded and much more experienced fighter here, I expect that even if she runs into difficulties in the feet she could get rounds with takedowns and top control.
Silva might win this one of course, she has good grappling and power, but very limited amount of experience as she has 5 total fights and has not fought since 2018. So she is unreliable pick at best.
Moroz via UD.
Bruno Silva vs. David Dvorak
Looks like Bruno Silva will find himself outgunned on the feet again. Dvorak has some unusual statistics for a guy of this size on the regional scene - 13 straight finishes. He has not been in a decision nor lost a fight since 2012. Regionals are regionals, but it looks pretty safe to say he will have the better standup and more power here.
As for grappling, that probably is Silva's only venue for victory, but even there Dvorak is very capable submission threat himself. I think it's not gonna be good for Silva.
Dvorak via 1st round KO.
Veronica Macedo vs. Bea Malecki
I don't feel like I can trust either of these fighters. Macedo has the more experience, but tends to be content losing fights from the bottom - though she did catch Viana in her last fight. Malecki only 3 fights deep into her MMA career, has really rough skills, but also all the physical advantages here.
Bea Malecki via 2nd round submission.
Main Event: Kevin Lee vs. Charles Oliveira
This one is a delicious match-up. Two guys who are excellent finishers, both right at the periphery of contention in the division - you can just feel there will be a title contender emerging from this fight.The Gillespie fight did not really tell us much new things about Lee. It was largely a stand-up affair that seemed competitive until Lee put Gillespie's lights out. It does not deserve much mention here cause I am sure that you, like me, have seen that KO over and over again since. All we learned was that it seems that Lee has taken a step to the right direction under Zahabi. Jury is still out though, Gillespie did not really go for grapple-heavy, wearing down style of fight that would have been his advantage and the type of fight that usually beats Lee.
With Charles Oliveira the situation is pretty similar. He has impressive streak of finishes, but he has not been fighting the highest level competition in a while. In a way this fight will come down to Lee's power versus Oliveira's seemingly questionable durability, and on the other hand Lee's tendency to fade against Oliveira's crafty submission game. It is deliciously in the balanced in that matter.
It should be pretty clear that Lee does not want to take this one down. You would think he wants to stay on the outside, stay out of the grappling realm and just look to KO Oliveira, which has been done many times. Oliveira seems to have improved his stand-up though and has now couple of back to back KOs. His problem is that he is not exactly classic offensive wrestler. He does have great sweeps, but with a guy as strong as Lee, I doubt he is getting them even if he does manage to clinch up. Perhaps he does not need to. Perhaps he just needs to clinch up Lee long enough to get him tired.
Does Oliveira in the end have any better cardio though? Certainly he might tire himself out as well in the early going if he goes for lot of clinching. It makes sense therefore that he is actually gonna be just as cagey as Lee about closing the distance and running into that power. So it comes down to who is better kickboxer, and that is not clear at all. Like I said, I think Lee is the more powerful one, but you would think Oliveira has the speed on him and won't get caught with a headkick like Gillespie did.
I am kind of leaning towards Oliveira in this. You don't really wanna pick against guy on a long winning streak, and for a guy who not too long ago limped into a defeat against Al Iaquinta. As much as there is optimism around Lee in the moment, I just feel like I can trust Oliveira more in this one. It is not a comfortable pick for him either though, considering his dodgy chin against Lee's power. With Lee missing the weight though, it also dampens my optimism about him turning the corner with his career.
Charles Oliveira via SD.
Co-Main Event: Demian Maia vs. Gilbert Burns
Another delicious match-up. Two world class BJJ competitors, and Burns supposedly is willing to grapple with Maia. I hope that's bluff on Burns' part, cause that would be a really bad idea. Clearly he is the better overall fighter here, with functional stand up, lot of power and good offensive and defensive wrestling.Last fight against Nelson really tells us that the whole wanting to grapple with Maia thing is probably just talk, cause he certainly did not actively pursue takedowns in that fight. Sure, he did couple of tosses off clinches, but nothing more than that, certainly did not mess around too much with Nelson's grappling.
I think that's what happens here too. Lot of clinchwork with Maia being unable to take him down. Even if he does, Burns probably is good enough to avoid getting submitted. I hope I am wrong here cause Maia is one of the all-time favorites, but he is 42 already and was getting badly marked up on the feet by even Askren, so someone as powerful as Burns might do bad stuff to him on the feet. At some point the time comes when you just no longer can take a shot and it is not too long for Maia.
Either way, I don't think the percentage for Burns KO is massive, but he will likely stuff all the takedown attempts and thus leave Maia for a slim chance of a win.
Gilbert Burns via UD.
Renato Carneiro vs. Damir Hadzovic
So Renato Carneiro better known as Moicano moves up to lightweight division after taking two bad KO losses back-to-back. At least he did not go completely unconscious in those fights, but when first shot puts you down, it's not a good look.
Hadzovic should be a winnable fight for him overall, but he has some decent power and gets on your face, so if Carneiro's ability to take a shot doesn't improve from lesser weight cut, he might be in trouble here. Technically he should be the better fighter and able to outpoint Hadzovic, if not even KO him, though the guy seems to have a pretty solid chin.
With present odds, Hadzovic is definitely the play here though. Hadzovic via 1st round KO.
Nikita Krylov vs. Johnny Walker
Well, this should be fun. Crazy and unpredictable, but certainly fun. Two offensively potent, but defensively suspect fighters. Between these guys they have 43 victories with 42 finishes - only Johnny Walker has once won a decision. So don't expect this to go the distance.
Walker made the smart decision to go to Tristar, so we should see him improved and he should have far higher ceiling with better coaching, but it has only been one camp. So I still am expecting him to be chinny and defensively suspect. At the same time, he carries crazy power, and Krylov is very hittable. Krylov has the better rounded game, but as I don't expect this to go long, the explosiveness of Walker will make the difference.
Not a pick one can make with any confidence, all I can say about this fight with certainty is that expect the unexpected.
Johnny Walker via 1st round TKO.
Francisco Trinaldo vs. John Makdessi
You know, for 41-year-old man, Trinaldo still has very good power, a lot of speed, solid chin and decent stamina. He also has a big reach advantage over Makdessi who seems to only be fighting once a year these days. Makdessi is quietly on a 3 fight win streak, but has not been particularly impressive in those.
He is still a solid if a bit chinny kickboxer who is hard to takedown, so expect this one to be contested on the outside and if anyone gets a finish, it would be Trinaldo, but I don't expect that. I expect it to be kind of low volume kickboxing fight. Trinaldo might get a home cooking, though I don't know how the lack of crowd will affect the judging. My hunch is Makdessi might be just tiny bit better in the standup, but the reach will make it closer and as this one is unlikely to have a finish, who knows how the decision will go.
John Makdessi via UD.
Jussier Formiga vs. Brandon Moreno
Moreno is the first guy that I have previewed three times ever since I started doing this thorough research. He has been very active and looked very impressive against Kara-France in his last fight. As for Formiga, he got KOd, and he is starting to get up there in age where you start to wonder when guys fall off a cliff.
That is what makes this an uncertain fight. Formiga should have the more tools, but I would assess this to be pretty even on the feet, with Formiga having the grappling and fight IQ advantage. If Formiga has become at all chinny or slowed down even a bit, Moreno will have the edge, and even if he is outmatched in grappling, Moreno is a good scrambler so he might give up rounds, but is unlikely to get subbed.
Most likely outcome is Formiga by close decision, but I have a feeling Moreno's improvement and Formiga fading a bit combine for Moreno getting the win.
Brandon Moreno via UD.
Randa Markos vs. Amanda Ribas
Randa is not gonna have a good time here. Ribas dominated Dern on the feet whereas Markos kept getting taken down by Ashley Yoder, who is arguably worse fighter. Ribas is actually someone with potential to get to higher rankings so this is pretty big mismatch. Ribas will likely dominate on the feet and then take Markos down at will too when she wants to.
I really don't see much of an avenue for Markos to win this. She does not have a KO win on her record, she sure as hell is not gonna sub decorated grappler Ribas, and she is likely gonna lose positionally on the ground and in volume on the feet to get a decision.
Ribas via 2nd round submission.
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs. Alexey Kunchenko
Both guys coming off of a loss and in a bit of a career downturn, so this one is not clear at all. Both guys have good stand up and power, but Zaleski dos Santos got worn down by Leech in his last fight before getting finished, and Kunchenko got just top controlled to a decision by Burns. This one is likely to be a stand-up affair and not so high-pace so Zaleski dos Santos has better chance than against Leech.
Kunchenko likes to pressure but does not put a crazy high pace, so Dos Santos might be able to put good volume of outside striking in. Kunchenko has power to catch him and finish him, so either way it is not a fight that you can confidently pick.
Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos via UD.
Rani Yahya vs. Enrique Barzola
Yahya is definitely slowing down and you wonder how much the damage he took against Ricky Simon will affect him in this fight, if he is softened up like Cowboy started to be after facing Gaethje and Ferguson. He has the classic problem of good BJJ players, does not have the elite level offensive wrestling to impose the grappling.
Barzola has very good takedown defence, even if he is all around a little bit mediocre. That will serve him well against Yahya and although Barzola's all fights in UFC has been decisions, he has decent chance to get a KO here.
Still, most likely it will be UD by Enrique Barzola.
Maryna Moroz vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
Well on paper this seems like a pretty close fight, but Moroz is well-rounded and much more experienced fighter here, I expect that even if she runs into difficulties in the feet she could get rounds with takedowns and top control.
Silva might win this one of course, she has good grappling and power, but very limited amount of experience as she has 5 total fights and has not fought since 2018. So she is unreliable pick at best.
Moroz via UD.
Bruno Silva vs. David Dvorak
Looks like Bruno Silva will find himself outgunned on the feet again. Dvorak has some unusual statistics for a guy of this size on the regional scene - 13 straight finishes. He has not been in a decision nor lost a fight since 2012. Regionals are regionals, but it looks pretty safe to say he will have the better standup and more power here.
As for grappling, that probably is Silva's only venue for victory, but even there Dvorak is very capable submission threat himself. I think it's not gonna be good for Silva.
Dvorak via 1st round KO.
Veronica Macedo vs. Bea Malecki
I don't feel like I can trust either of these fighters. Macedo has the more experience, but tends to be content losing fights from the bottom - though she did catch Viana in her last fight. Malecki only 3 fights deep into her MMA career, has really rough skills, but also all the physical advantages here.
Bea Malecki via 2nd round submission.
Kommentit
Lähetä kommentti