UFC 249 Post-Fight Analysis
Man, UFC 249 was great. It wasn't even about the lack of live sports action, you could have put this event in middle of busy schedule of weekly events and it still would have stood out. There was lot of name value on the card and it duly delivered even in lesser fights. There was a bittersweet tint to the entertainment though.
Justin was too much for him. Tony looked like he could still kick up a gear after second round and I still thought he would win the fight, especially having survived Justin's early onslaught. Justin seemed tired, but he was not too tired. He managed his energy well enough and Tony on the other hand started to get more and more compromised with each hard shot he absorbed. Surely Tony ate 10 times the amount of shots that would have KOd normal man.
In the end Herb saved him from getting flatlined by mercifully stopping the contest with Tony still standing. Justin showed great mix of technique, skill, power and toughness and is clearly a big problem for McGregor or Khabib, whichever comes next. It has to be one or the other.
The co-main had my biggest bet in Dom Cruz and well, that backfired. But even with the hindsight, I don't really know if I would do anything differently. I mean they fought nearly two rounds, first round Henry won and showed he has the speed to bother Cruz and good strategy to inhibit Dom's movement. On the other hand second round was close and Cruz was starting to find his groove more and more. Who knows how it would have gone if Henry missed that huge shot in the end? He didn't though, Dom was badly hurt and can't really complain about the stoppage too much. With all said than done he did not drop because of old age and he did not look like he had lost much of a step either during the layoff. Whether he can make another run at the title, I don't know, but he still is a major figure in the bantamweight division.
As for Cejudo, you have to give him credit at this point. He has good power, good speed, just solid skills everywhere on top of the olympic level wrestling. I personally would have liked to see him defend his title more times against some real #1 contenders instead of aging legends, but he feels its time to step away which blows open the division again.
Not much to write about Ngannou Rozenstruik fight - Ngannou just recklessly stepped into swing, trusting in his chin and was right - one guy was bound to fall during the wild exchange. Ngannou has so ridiculous amount of power that only way to beat him is to either run for your life or just clinch and grapple him nonstop. In my eyes, even with his technical flaws, he already is the best fighter in the division.
Calvin Kattar and Jeremy Stephens had a back and forth fight until Kattar landed an elbow from hell and then a follow-up that split Stephens completely open. Kattar did seem like he was starting to pull ahead in the fight even before the killshot, and my assessment that he is the better fighter proved correct.
Greg Hardy has changed from the scary KO artist he was in the regional scene into a very measured fighter who uses his size well to stay safe and pick victories. De Castro started fast but then just was a passenger the latter two rounds, basically giving Hardy the fight.
Oleinik and Werdum engaged in a sloppy fight where Oleinik was another older guy showing he has not completely lost his durability yet - as well as beating up Werdum particularly in the first round bad. The latter rounds were closer, but Werdum looks pretty finished when he can't put on a better showing than that against Oleinik.
Carla Esparza beat Michelle Waterson in, uh, let's just say questionable decision. I think most people would feel Waterson won that fight, but to be fair you can argue two rounds for Esparza - not a criteria I personally would agree with, but it's fair enough. However the 30-27 scorecard for Esparza was some horseshit.
Vicente Luque and Niko Price went to war, but predictably the more polished guy in Luque found the more damaging shots and forced a doctor stoppage in the 3rd. Great fight, perhaps the best of the night.
Bryce Mitchell and Charles Rosa had another tremendous fight, but in a completely different way. It was an exciting feast of offensively potent grappling that kept you on the edge of your seat despite being shockingly one-sided. Mitchell clearly is ready to fight some of the top guys in the division. He might get cleaned up in the stand-up, but might just have best grappling in the division.
The night opened up in an alright fight between Spann and Alvey. It was a pretty close decision despite it seeming that Spann was much the sharper fighter.
Pettis pick in hindsight was not so great - he only just got by Cerrone and the odds weren't great. So despite being a winning pick I probably should not have gone so big on that one.
Main Card
So, Tony vs. Khabib will never probably happen then. Justin Gaethje proved he was more than just entertaining brawler by managing to stop Tony's relentless pressure with the incredible amount of damage he gave El Cucuy. Tony's legendary 12-fight win streak is over, but it will be remembered one of the best in the sport and although he never won the real belt, Tony is as legit a champ as anyone.Justin was too much for him. Tony looked like he could still kick up a gear after second round and I still thought he would win the fight, especially having survived Justin's early onslaught. Justin seemed tired, but he was not too tired. He managed his energy well enough and Tony on the other hand started to get more and more compromised with each hard shot he absorbed. Surely Tony ate 10 times the amount of shots that would have KOd normal man.
In the end Herb saved him from getting flatlined by mercifully stopping the contest with Tony still standing. Justin showed great mix of technique, skill, power and toughness and is clearly a big problem for McGregor or Khabib, whichever comes next. It has to be one or the other.
The co-main had my biggest bet in Dom Cruz and well, that backfired. But even with the hindsight, I don't really know if I would do anything differently. I mean they fought nearly two rounds, first round Henry won and showed he has the speed to bother Cruz and good strategy to inhibit Dom's movement. On the other hand second round was close and Cruz was starting to find his groove more and more. Who knows how it would have gone if Henry missed that huge shot in the end? He didn't though, Dom was badly hurt and can't really complain about the stoppage too much. With all said than done he did not drop because of old age and he did not look like he had lost much of a step either during the layoff. Whether he can make another run at the title, I don't know, but he still is a major figure in the bantamweight division.
As for Cejudo, you have to give him credit at this point. He has good power, good speed, just solid skills everywhere on top of the olympic level wrestling. I personally would have liked to see him defend his title more times against some real #1 contenders instead of aging legends, but he feels its time to step away which blows open the division again.
Not much to write about Ngannou Rozenstruik fight - Ngannou just recklessly stepped into swing, trusting in his chin and was right - one guy was bound to fall during the wild exchange. Ngannou has so ridiculous amount of power that only way to beat him is to either run for your life or just clinch and grapple him nonstop. In my eyes, even with his technical flaws, he already is the best fighter in the division.
Calvin Kattar and Jeremy Stephens had a back and forth fight until Kattar landed an elbow from hell and then a follow-up that split Stephens completely open. Kattar did seem like he was starting to pull ahead in the fight even before the killshot, and my assessment that he is the better fighter proved correct.
Greg Hardy has changed from the scary KO artist he was in the regional scene into a very measured fighter who uses his size well to stay safe and pick victories. De Castro started fast but then just was a passenger the latter two rounds, basically giving Hardy the fight.
Prelims
Pettis and Cerrone fight... it wasn't bad, but it kinda did look like two past their best fighters fighting. Pettis did bit worse than I thought, Cerrone on the other hand managed to absorb a few hard shots without going out.Oleinik and Werdum engaged in a sloppy fight where Oleinik was another older guy showing he has not completely lost his durability yet - as well as beating up Werdum particularly in the first round bad. The latter rounds were closer, but Werdum looks pretty finished when he can't put on a better showing than that against Oleinik.
Carla Esparza beat Michelle Waterson in, uh, let's just say questionable decision. I think most people would feel Waterson won that fight, but to be fair you can argue two rounds for Esparza - not a criteria I personally would agree with, but it's fair enough. However the 30-27 scorecard for Esparza was some horseshit.
Vicente Luque and Niko Price went to war, but predictably the more polished guy in Luque found the more damaging shots and forced a doctor stoppage in the 3rd. Great fight, perhaps the best of the night.
Bryce Mitchell and Charles Rosa had another tremendous fight, but in a completely different way. It was an exciting feast of offensively potent grappling that kept you on the edge of your seat despite being shockingly one-sided. Mitchell clearly is ready to fight some of the top guys in the division. He might get cleaned up in the stand-up, but might just have best grappling in the division.
The night opened up in an alright fight between Spann and Alvey. It was a pretty close decision despite it seeming that Spann was much the sharper fighter.
My picks
I got 8 out of 11 picks right, just in terms of success rate that is excellent, but of course it is well-known my big pick was Cruz, but as always, my big picks lose. Gaethje on the other hand was a great pick in a bittersweet way. I hated to see Ferguson lose, but smart money was on Gaethje at those odds. With only three bets wrong and two of the wrong ones being close decisions, there really was no contest for the Cruz bet for being worst of the night.Pettis pick in hindsight was not so great - he only just got by Cerrone and the odds weren't great. So despite being a winning pick I probably should not have gone so big on that one.
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