UFC 249 Preview & Predictions
So the long break is finally over and UFC 249 is supposed to finally happen this weekend. I only believe it when I see it though, so I do not wanna spend too much time previewing fights that might not happen at all. Futhermore I have some problems with my computers which limits my ability to do research anyway, so the usual attention to detail won't be there this time. That won't be a big problem though since I have watched a bunch of fights during the quarantine and most of the fights on the card feature well-known fighters. Let's get to it.
Both of these guys fight pressuring style of attrition, but Ferguson is more volume-based and Gaethje more about power. With both guys likely wanting to pressure, who will be the first one to back down? Well realistically Gaethje can just end it in the early exchanges as they swing wildly, Tony does tend to get always hurt and Justin hits hard.
At the same time, if Tony does make the fight go long, he will start to take over more and more. I would say that 3 times out of 5 Tony exhausts Justin and just wears him down like he does to everyone, and 2 times out of 5 Justin powershots and takes out Tony.
It seems unlikely to be a grappling affair since Gaethje only uses his wrestling defensively and Tony usually does not care to pursue grappling, even if he is excellent at it when needed.
I think the odds are a little bit too wide. Yes, for me Tony should be the favorite, but Gaethje is elite as well and the fight will be particularly chaotic, so I am gonna go for the wider odds here by picking Gaethje by 1st round KO. That, and also hedging my bets in case the disappointment of Tony loss happens.
So prime Cruz just dances circles around Cejudo and cruises to victory. But there is the unknown of how much have injuries again taken out of Cruz. If not a lot, this is his fight to lose. Of course, being an olympic gold medalist (did you know?), Cejudo has some ways of winning even against prime Cruz, so it is not a black-and-white affair. First off, he could beat him same way he beat DJ - by squeezing 3 rounds with successful takedowns. It might happen, but Cruz has at least as good footwork as DJ has, and as a bigger guy is naturally harder to take down.
Cejudo might also just land the big shot to take him out, but I would give long odds for that happening. In the end Cruz should cruise to UD.
Francis Ngannou vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Two big boys with heavy hands meeting. I lean towards Ngannou cause it seems like since that dud against Lewis the guy has really straightened his act out, is in absolutely tremendous shape and has just been destroying everything on his path. That is how Francis tends to be when he is on his game.
Jairzinho has been destroying everybody as well and has that swagger of an unbeaten man, but he simply does not have the top-level experience in MMA that Ngannou has. Both are powerful enough to take each other out, but only way Ngannou has really been beaten has been through wearing him out... That being said its not like Rozenstruik has either been hurt.
It just seems like the mutual opponent in Overeem that both guys knocked out tilts the balance to Ngannou's way. Ngannou sent Overeem to shadowrealm fast, but Rozenstruik went back and forth with him for 5 rounds - which is impressive in itself, but not as impressive as what Francis did.
If fight does go long it will be interesting how big of a role clinch will play in the fight and who will the one to wear out more. Although Francis gassed with Stipe, he still has great conditioning for a heavyweight so even in that case I lean towards Francis taking this.
Ngannou via 1st round KO.
Jeremy Stephens vs. Calvin KattarShould be a decent fight near the top of the division, but with Stephens missing the weight so vastly, is it a case of age finally starting to catch up with him? Definitely he is always a dangerous opponent to anyone thanks to his power, but he also seems to be well past his best. Kattar is someone who looks like he could be a contender if he could only improve a little bit.
Either way at his current level Kattar should be able to already outslick a fading Stephens. Not a 100 % lock thanks to the mentioned power that Stephens always has, but the younger guy should be able to get the win.
Calvin Kattar via UD.
Greg Hardy vs. Yorgan de Castro
This is actually very hard fight to call. De Castro seems like a solid enough talent and Hardy has been riding on his good athletic ability surprisingly well even against tough competition. De Castro is unbeaten but when your toughest fight is Justin Tafa with 3-fight experience, its really hard to say how good you are actually. Obviously though both of them has good power to end the fight as you would expect from guys of this size.
Hardy has been improving every time we see him out there, so with all that, I would expect him to be just a little bit better here. Hardy via SD.
Anthony Pettis vs. Donald Cerrone
Interesting fight. Both are very technical kickboxers but also crafty grapplers. The problem of Pettis has always been fading against people who pressure him, which Cerrone would be smart to do... but Cerrone really is not pressure fighter, never has been, and definitely is unlikely to pull that off now that it seems like his already suspect durability is fading.
One thing we know is that Pettis still can crack, we saw that not too long ago against Wonderboy, and he also had Tony hurt in their fight, so all in all it looks like this will be even duking out on the feet until Pettis finds some hard shots that land, and then Cerrone will be finished.
Pettis via 2nd round KO.
Fabricio Werdum vs. Alexei Oleinik
Man this one is a tough one to crack. Both are great grapplers, so the interesting thing is how often has either lost via submission? Well Werdum has never been submitted, Oleinik just twice, and not since 2004 (crazy to think about).
But of course, lets be real, we will see a sloppy kickboxing fight, and both of these guys are likely to be badly faded. I just think Oleinik is far further gone. Werdum at least has not been fighting, which might lead to rust, but might work for him in terms of him being able to take shots. He should be much the better kickboxer of the two, so Werdum via 1st round KO.
Carla Esparza vs. Michelle Waterson
The size is a problem for Waterson, but she has always been a scrappy grappler and definitely is much the better striker of the two, so I do think she might outpoint Esparza on the feet or find scrambles/submissions on the floor. It's a close fight, definitely Esparza can also control her way to a victory through takedowns, but I lean towards Waterson winning this.
Waterson via UD.
Vicente Luque vs. Niko Price
All things considered this is a bit of a weird fight to make, but should be good nonetheless. Price really is not technically anywhere near Luque's level, for Luque realistically is one of the best fighters in the division. Price has that crazy mentality though and hits hella hard, so you can never count him out. Luque has had very solid chin thus far though so while I do see him getting cracked a few times during this fight, he should be able to come on top.
Luque via UD.
Charles Rosa vs. Bryce Mitchell
Basically its good fighter with a bad chin vs. mediocre one with a good chin. Mitchell makes the fights crazy and dirty, he probably will be losing until he isn't any more.
Mitchell via 3rd round submission.
Ryan Spann vs. Sam Alvey
Spann looked great at the weigh-ins, so while he ain't the greatest fighter on the roster, he has good power and is rangy, should be enough to get past a fading fighter who, let's be honest, never had that much aside power and toughness.
Spann via 2nd round KO.
Main Event: Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje
Like most people, I have love/hate relationship with this fight. I feel like it will be exciting one, but at the same time I much rather Tony fights Khabib now, Justin next. Now one contender is gonna be knocked off in all likelihood, perhaps forever foiling the Ferguson v Khabib fight we have been hoping for.Both of these guys fight pressuring style of attrition, but Ferguson is more volume-based and Gaethje more about power. With both guys likely wanting to pressure, who will be the first one to back down? Well realistically Gaethje can just end it in the early exchanges as they swing wildly, Tony does tend to get always hurt and Justin hits hard.
At the same time, if Tony does make the fight go long, he will start to take over more and more. I would say that 3 times out of 5 Tony exhausts Justin and just wears him down like he does to everyone, and 2 times out of 5 Justin powershots and takes out Tony.
It seems unlikely to be a grappling affair since Gaethje only uses his wrestling defensively and Tony usually does not care to pursue grappling, even if he is excellent at it when needed.
I think the odds are a little bit too wide. Yes, for me Tony should be the favorite, but Gaethje is elite as well and the fight will be particularly chaotic, so I am gonna go for the wider odds here by picking Gaethje by 1st round KO. That, and also hedging my bets in case the disappointment of Tony loss happens.
Co-Main Event: Henry Cejudo vs. Dominick Cruz
This seems like a no-brainer. Cejudo is good, but even as a champ his resume is not that great. Knocking out dehydrated TJ (who always has had defensive holes), squeaking a tight decision past DJ (that I would argue he should not have gotten) and then beating a faded Moraes (after getting utterly dominated when Moraes was fresh) just is not that great of a top-level resume.So prime Cruz just dances circles around Cejudo and cruises to victory. But there is the unknown of how much have injuries again taken out of Cruz. If not a lot, this is his fight to lose. Of course, being an olympic gold medalist (did you know?), Cejudo has some ways of winning even against prime Cruz, so it is not a black-and-white affair. First off, he could beat him same way he beat DJ - by squeezing 3 rounds with successful takedowns. It might happen, but Cruz has at least as good footwork as DJ has, and as a bigger guy is naturally harder to take down.
Cejudo might also just land the big shot to take him out, but I would give long odds for that happening. In the end Cruz should cruise to UD.
Francis Ngannou vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Two big boys with heavy hands meeting. I lean towards Ngannou cause it seems like since that dud against Lewis the guy has really straightened his act out, is in absolutely tremendous shape and has just been destroying everything on his path. That is how Francis tends to be when he is on his game.
Jairzinho has been destroying everybody as well and has that swagger of an unbeaten man, but he simply does not have the top-level experience in MMA that Ngannou has. Both are powerful enough to take each other out, but only way Ngannou has really been beaten has been through wearing him out... That being said its not like Rozenstruik has either been hurt.
It just seems like the mutual opponent in Overeem that both guys knocked out tilts the balance to Ngannou's way. Ngannou sent Overeem to shadowrealm fast, but Rozenstruik went back and forth with him for 5 rounds - which is impressive in itself, but not as impressive as what Francis did.
If fight does go long it will be interesting how big of a role clinch will play in the fight and who will the one to wear out more. Although Francis gassed with Stipe, he still has great conditioning for a heavyweight so even in that case I lean towards Francis taking this.
Ngannou via 1st round KO.
Jeremy Stephens vs. Calvin KattarShould be a decent fight near the top of the division, but with Stephens missing the weight so vastly, is it a case of age finally starting to catch up with him? Definitely he is always a dangerous opponent to anyone thanks to his power, but he also seems to be well past his best. Kattar is someone who looks like he could be a contender if he could only improve a little bit.
Either way at his current level Kattar should be able to already outslick a fading Stephens. Not a 100 % lock thanks to the mentioned power that Stephens always has, but the younger guy should be able to get the win.
Calvin Kattar via UD.
Greg Hardy vs. Yorgan de Castro
This is actually very hard fight to call. De Castro seems like a solid enough talent and Hardy has been riding on his good athletic ability surprisingly well even against tough competition. De Castro is unbeaten but when your toughest fight is Justin Tafa with 3-fight experience, its really hard to say how good you are actually. Obviously though both of them has good power to end the fight as you would expect from guys of this size.
Hardy has been improving every time we see him out there, so with all that, I would expect him to be just a little bit better here. Hardy via SD.
Anthony Pettis vs. Donald Cerrone
Interesting fight. Both are very technical kickboxers but also crafty grapplers. The problem of Pettis has always been fading against people who pressure him, which Cerrone would be smart to do... but Cerrone really is not pressure fighter, never has been, and definitely is unlikely to pull that off now that it seems like his already suspect durability is fading.
One thing we know is that Pettis still can crack, we saw that not too long ago against Wonderboy, and he also had Tony hurt in their fight, so all in all it looks like this will be even duking out on the feet until Pettis finds some hard shots that land, and then Cerrone will be finished.
Pettis via 2nd round KO.
Fabricio Werdum vs. Alexei Oleinik
Man this one is a tough one to crack. Both are great grapplers, so the interesting thing is how often has either lost via submission? Well Werdum has never been submitted, Oleinik just twice, and not since 2004 (crazy to think about).
But of course, lets be real, we will see a sloppy kickboxing fight, and both of these guys are likely to be badly faded. I just think Oleinik is far further gone. Werdum at least has not been fighting, which might lead to rust, but might work for him in terms of him being able to take shots. He should be much the better kickboxer of the two, so Werdum via 1st round KO.
Carla Esparza vs. Michelle Waterson
The size is a problem for Waterson, but she has always been a scrappy grappler and definitely is much the better striker of the two, so I do think she might outpoint Esparza on the feet or find scrambles/submissions on the floor. It's a close fight, definitely Esparza can also control her way to a victory through takedowns, but I lean towards Waterson winning this.
Waterson via UD.
Vicente Luque vs. Niko Price
All things considered this is a bit of a weird fight to make, but should be good nonetheless. Price really is not technically anywhere near Luque's level, for Luque realistically is one of the best fighters in the division. Price has that crazy mentality though and hits hella hard, so you can never count him out. Luque has had very solid chin thus far though so while I do see him getting cracked a few times during this fight, he should be able to come on top.
Luque via UD.
Charles Rosa vs. Bryce Mitchell
Basically its good fighter with a bad chin vs. mediocre one with a good chin. Mitchell makes the fights crazy and dirty, he probably will be losing until he isn't any more.
Mitchell via 3rd round submission.
Ryan Spann vs. Sam Alvey
Spann looked great at the weigh-ins, so while he ain't the greatest fighter on the roster, he has good power and is rangy, should be enough to get past a fading fighter who, let's be honest, never had that much aside power and toughness.
Spann via 2nd round KO.
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